Climate Variability-Observations, Reconstructions, and Model Simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine Region from 1500-2100 AD

A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.     

Collision of the Kronotskiy arc at the NE Eurasia margin and structural evolution of the Kamchatka–Aleutian junction

Structural evolution of the Kamchatka–Aleutian junction area in late Mesozoic and Tertiary was generally controlled by (1) the processes of subduction in Kronotskiy and Proto-Kamchatka subduction zones and (2) collision of the Kronotskiy arc against NE Eurasia margin. Two structural zones of the pre-Pliocene age and six structural assemblages are recognized in studied region. 1: Eastern ranges zone comprises SE-vergent thrust folded belt, which evolved in accretionary and collisional setting. Two structural assemblages (ER1 and ER2), developed there, document shortening in the NW–SE direction and in the N–S direction, respectively. 2: Eastern Peninsulas zone generally corresponds to Kronotskiy arc terrane. Four structural assemblages are recognized in this zone. They characterize (1) precollisional deformations in the accretionary wedge (EP1) and in the fore-arc basin and volcanic belt (EP2), and (2) syn-collisional deformation of the entire Kronotskiy terrane in plunging folds (EP3) and deformations in the foreland basin (EP4). Analysis of paleomagnetic declinations versus present day structural strike in the Kronotskiy arc terrane shows that originally the arc was trending from west to east. Relative position of the accretionary wedge, fore-arc basin and volcanic belt, as well as northward dipping thrusts in accretionary wedge indicate, that a northward dipping subduction zone was located south of the arc. The accretionary wedge developed from the Late Cretaceous through the Eocene, and it implies that the subduction zone maintained its direction and position during this time. It implies that Kronotskiy arc was neither a part of the Pacific nor Kula plates and was located on an individual smaller plate, which included the arc and Vetlovka back-arc basin. Motion of the Kronotskiy arc towards Eurasia was connected only with NW-directed subduction at Kamchatka margin since Middle Eocene (42–44 Ma). Emplacement of the Kronotskiy arc at the Kamchatka margin occurred between Late Eocene and Early Miocene. This is based on the age of syn-collisional plunging folds in Kronotskiy terrane, and provenance data for the Upper Eocene to Middle Miocene Tyushevka basin, which indicate in situ evolution of the basin with respect to Kamchatka. Collision was controlled by the common motion of the Kronotskiy arc with Pacific plate towards the northwest, and by the motion of the Eurasian margin towards the south. The latter motion was responsible for the southward deflection of the western part of the Kronotskiy arc (EP3 structures), and for oblique transpressional structures in the collisional belt (ER2 structures).     

U/Th age constraints on the absence of ice in the central Inn Valley (eastern Alps, Austria) during Marine Isotope Stages 5c to 5a

Calcitic flowstones are present in fractures of a Pleistocene breccia near Innsbruck, Austria, and record periods of carbonate precipitation in the unsaturated zone between 101,500 ± 1500 and 70,300 ± 1800 yr, constrained by U-series disequilibrium dates. The occurrence of these speleothems, their low carbon isotopic composition, and the lack of infiltrated siliciclastic material demonstrate that the central Inn valley - which harbored one of the most extensive valley glaciers during the last glacial maximum - was ice-free during Marine Isotope Stages 5c to 5a. Climatically warm periods are separated by distinct drops in the oxygen isotopic composition of the speleothem calcite, attributed to strong and possibly seasonally biased atmospheric cooling. During these intervening stadials, which mirror those identified in the Greenland ice cores and marine sea-surface temperature records, calcite deposition apparently came to a halt, but the Inn Valley remained ice-free. The youngest calcite layer formed between ∼74,000 and ∼70,000 yr and places a maximum age limit on the likely expansion of alpine glaciers during the Marine Isotope Stage 5/4 transition, consistent with other speleothem records.     

Joint interpretation of the size and time distributions of seismic activity around the Hengill triple junction (SW Iceland) between 1993 and 1999

A newly developed clustering algorithm is described which uses the Unified Scaling Law for earthquakes to identify correlations between events that lead to clustering. This algorithm is applied to a dataset from the Hengill triple junction in south west Iceland to separate spatially and temporally overlapping earthquake sequences. We show that the algorithm successfully identifies spatio-temporally clustered events.A search for certain patterns in the identified clusters is performed. These patterns emerged in numerical simulations of seismicity performed by Hainzl (2003) when viscous coupling was introduced in order to reproduce features of swarm earthquakes. Namely we look for a combination of increased Gutenberg-Richter b-value and decreased exponent of the waiting-time distribution α. This pattern, indicating the strongest influence of viscous coupling on the characteristics of the seismicity, could be localized beneath an extinct volcano approximately 5 km north of an area of recent crustal uplift.     

Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections

This paper compares how well satellite versus weather station measurements of climate predict agricultural performance in Brazil, India, and the United States. Although weather stations give accurate measures of ground conditions, they entail sporadic observations that require interpolation where observations are missing. In contrast, satellites have trouble measuring some ground phenomenon such as precipitation but they provide complete spatial coverage of various parameters over a landscape. The satellite temperature measurements slightly outperform the interpolated ground station data but the precipitation ground measurements generally outperform the satellite surface wetness index. In India, the surface wetness index outperforms station precipitation but this may be reflecting irrigation, not climate. The results suggest that satellites provide promising measures of temperature but that ground station data may still be preferred for measuring precipitation in rural settings.     

Organised Motion in a Tall Spruce Canopy: Temporal Scales,Structure Spacing and Terrain Effects

This study investigates the organised motion near the canopy-atmosphere interface of a moderately dense spruce forest in heterogeneous, complex terrain. Wind direction is used to assess differences in topography and surface properties. Observations were obtained at several heights above and within the canopy using sonic anemometers and fast-response gas analysers over the course of several weeks. Analysed variables include the three-dimensional wind vector, the sonic temperature, and the concentration of carbon dioxide. Wavelet analysis was used to extract the organised motion from time series and to derive its temporal scales. Spectral Fourier analysis was deployed to compute power spectra and phase spectra. Profiles of temporal scales of ramp-like coherent structures in the vertical and longitudinal wind components showed a reversed variation with height and were of similar size within the canopy. Temporal scales of scalar fields were comparable to those of the longitudinal wind component suggesting that the lateral scalar transport dominates. The existence of a – 1 power law in the longitudinal power spectra was confirmed for a few cases only, with a majority showing a clear 5/3 decay. The variation of effective scales of organised motion in the longitudinal velocity and temperature were found to vary with atmospheric stability, suggesting that both Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities and attached eddies dominate the flow with increasing convectional forcing. The canopy mixing-layer analogy was observed to be applicable for ramp-like coherent structures in the vertical wind component for selected wind directions only. Departures from the prediction of m = Λ _w L _s ⁻¹ = 8–10 (where Λ _w is the streamwise spacing of coherent structures in the vertical wind w and L _s is a canopy shear length scale) were caused by smaller shear length scales associated with large-scale changes in the terrain as well as the vertical structure of the canopy. The occurrence of linear gravity waves was related to a rise in local topography and can therefore be referred to as mountain-type gravity waves. Temporal scales of wave motion and ramp-like coherent structures were observed to be comparable.     

Transient simulations,empirical reconstructions and forcing mechanisms for the Mid-holocene hydrological climate in southern Patagonia

This study investigates the atmospheric circulation in transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) for the mid-Holocene (MH) period 7–4.5 ka BP driven with combinations of orbital, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The focus is on southern South America. Statistical downscaling models are derived from observational data and applied to the simulations to estimate precipitation in south-eastern Patagonia during the MH. These estimates are compared with lake level estimates for Laguna Potrok Aike (LPA) from sediments. Relative to pre-industrial conditions (i.e. 1550–1850), which show extraordinarily high lake levels, the proxy-based reconstructed lake levels during the MH are lower. The downscaled simulated circulation differences indicate higher LPA precipitation during the MH from March to August, higher annual means, and reduced precipitation from September to February. Thus the reconstructed lower LPA lake levels can not be explained solely by the simulated precipitation changes. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Based on proxy data from southern South America hypotheses have also been proposed on the latitudinal position of the southern hemispheric westerlies (SHWs). In agreement with some of these hypotheses our simulations show an increased seasonal cycle of the latitudinal position of the SHWs during the MH, which can be explained by the orbital forcing. The simulations also show stronger SHWs over southern Patagonia during austral summer and weaker SHWs during winter. The downscaling model associates weaker SHWs with increased precipitation in the LPA region. However, this relationship is only moderate, and therefore the downscaling model does not support the assumption of a strong link between mean SHWs and precipitation over south-eastern Patagonia, which is the basis of many proxy-based hypotheses about the SHWs.