Determination of first-order degradation rate constants from monitoring networks

In this article, different strategies for estimating first-order degradation rate constants from measured field data are compared by application to multiple, synthetic, contaminant plumes. The plumes were generated by numerical simulation of contaminant transport and degradation in virtual heterogeneous aquifers. These sites were then individually and independently investigated on the computer by installation of extensive networks of observation wells. From the data measured at the wells, that is, contaminant concentrations, hydraulic conductivities, and heads, first-order degradation rates were estimated by three 1D centerline methods, which use only measurements located on the plume axis, and a two-dimensional method, which uses all concentration measurements available downgradient from the contaminant source. Results for both strategies show that the true rate constant used for the numerical simulation of the plumes in general tends to be overestimated. Overestimation is stronger for narrow plumes from small source zones, with an average overestimation factor of about 5 and single values ranging from 0.5 to 20, decreasing for wider plumes, with an average overestimation factor of about 2 and similar spread. Reasons for this overestimation are identified in the velocity calculation, the dispersivity parameterization, and off-centerline measurements. For narrow plumes, the one- and the two-dimensional strategies show approximately the same amount of overestimation. For wider plumes, however, incorporation of all measurements in the two-dimensional approach reduces the estimation error. No significant relation between the number of observation wells in the monitoring network and the quality of the estimated rate constant is found for the two-dimensional approach.     

Possible climatic controls on the accumulation of Peru's most prominent alluvial fan: The Lima Conglomerate

Sediment accumulation can occur in response to a change in either tectonic or climatic driving forces. Here, we explore these controls on the deposition of the Lima Conglomerate, Peru. We use a combination of quantitative methods to explore the age of sediment accumulation, the provenance of the material and the paleo-erosion rates recorded by these deposits. Isochron burial dating with cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al yield an age of c. 500 ka for the base (490 ± 70 ka) and the uppermost sample situated c. 30 m higher upsection (490 ± 80 ka). Results of paleo-erosion rate estimates with concentrations of in situ ¹⁰Be show a c. 60% increase from 105 ± 10 mm ka^-1 for the base to 169 ± 14 mm ka^-1 for the uppermost sample. Finally, provenance tracing with in situ U/Pb ages on detrital zircon implies that the material has been derived from the entire drainage basin. The combination of results suggests that sediment accumulation occurred in response to an erosional pulse, which affected the entire basin within a short time interval. Because ¹⁰Be data represents a large spatial record of erosion, we exclude the possibility where a breakout of a lake or a focused release of material in response to earthquakes, were responsible for the large material flux. Instead, the erosional pulse was likely to have occurred at the scale of the entire basin, supporting the idea of a larger-scale, most likely climate driven control. In this context, the accumulation age of c. 500 ka falls into an orbital cycle fostering the emerging picture in the literature that sediment routing in the Andes have most likely been driven by climate and cyclic changes. We suggest that the Andean mountain range offers an ideal laboratory to explore the erosional history in relation to climate patterns, at least in Peru. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Normative composition and classification of lunar igneous rocks and glasses,I. Lunar igneous rocks

678 major element analyses and all available trace element determinations of lunar rocks with igneous textures were collected from the literature. Rittmann norms were calculated by an ALGOL program. The norm values, grouped according to increasing clinopyroxene contents, were plotted into quartz-plagioclase-orthopyroxene and olivine-plagioclase-orthopyroxene triangles, respectively. The plots indicate that all lunar rocks form a compositional continuum that starts from rocks very high in plagioclase and continues, with increasing clinopyroxene, to plagioclase-poorer and orthopyroxene-richer rocks containing partly quartz, partly olivine.According to apparent clusters in the plots, and taking into account lunar rock types defined by previous authors, the continuum of normative compositions was subdivided into five major rock groups (I to V). The averages of these groups can be characterized by clinopyroxene contents and plagioclase/orthopyroxene ratios (I: 3% cpx, plag/opx = 30; II: 4% cpx, plag/opx = 7; III: 8% cpx, plag/opx = 2; IV: 26% cpx, plag/opx = 0.8; V: 34% cpx, plag/opx = 1.8). According to the contents in K-feldspar, from groups III and V K-rich subgroups were separated. Average contents of major elements and trace elements were calculated for main groups and subgroups.For the normative groups of lunar igneous rocks, names are proposed which conform to the nomenclature of terrestrial rocks.     

Shock induced planar deformation structures in quartz from the Ries crater,Germany

Crystalline rocks from breccias of the Ries basin, Germany, contain highly deformed quartz. Various planar deformation structures could be observed and classified into five different types: (1) Decorated planar elements, (2) Non-decorated planar elements, (3) Homogeneous lamellae, (4) Filled lamellae, (5) Planar fractures. All these structures are parallel to crystallographic planes: {10¯13}, {10¯12}, {10¯11}, {0001},{11¯21}, {11¯22}, {21¯31}, {51¯61}, {10¯10}. The most typical and most abundant planar structures are decorated and nondecorated planar elements parallel to {10¯13} and {10¯12}. Planar fractures are parallel to {0001} and {10¯11} and form at lower stress levels, probably earlier than the planar elements.Quartz containing planar elements, especially of the non-decorated type, has lower density, index of refraction and birefringence than normal quartz. This quartz is apparently a mixture of an amorphous phase and crystalline quartz, the amount of which can be calculated using average density or refractive index.Comparison of planar quartz structures found in tectonites and those produced artificially under static or dynamic high pressure conditions demonstrates that Ries quartz closely resembles deformed quartz recovered from shock wave experiments. The planar structures found in Ries quartz have been formed by shock wave actions with peak pressures in the 100–400 kbar range.Planar elements are explained to be traces of gliding processes during shock loading visible due to the fact that a high pressure phase (stishovite and/or a stishovite-like glass phase) has been produced along the glide planes. Upon pressure release most of the high pressure phase was transformed into an SiO₂-glass (diaplectic glass).In comparison with experimental data the amount of residual crystalline quartz as well as type and orientation of planar structures in the quartz grains are clues to estimate the peak pressures responsible for these deformations. Shock waves with peak pressures exceeding about 400 kbar completely transform quartz into diaplectic SiO₂-glass.     

Plate boundary deformation and continuing deflation of the Askja volcano,North Iceland,determined with GPS, 1987–1993

GPS geodetic measurements were conducted around the Askja central volcano located at the divergent plate boundary in north Iceland in 1987, 1990, 1992 and 1993. The accuracy of the 1987 and 1990 measurements is in the range of 10 mm for horizontal components; the accuracy of the 1992 and 1993 measurements is about 4 mm in the horizontal plane. Regional deformation in the Askja region is dominated by extension. Points located outside a 30–45 km wide plate boundary deformation zone indicate a displacement of 2.4±0.5 cm/a in the direction N 99°E±12° of the Eurasian plate relative to the North American plate in the period 1987–1990. Within the plate boundary deformation zone extensional strain accumulates at a rate of 0.8 strain/a. Displacement of control points next to Askja (>7 km from the caldera center) in the periods 1990–1993 and 1992–1993 show deflation and contraction towards the caldera. These results are in accordance with the results obtained by other geodetic methods in the area, which indicate that the deflation at Askja occurs in response to a pressure decrease at about 2.8 km depth, located close to the center of the main Askja caldera. A Mogi point source was fixed at this location and the GPS data used to solve for the source strength. A central subsidence of 11±2.5 cm in the period 1990–1993 is indicated, and 5.5±1.5 cm in the period 1992–1993. The maximum tensional strain rate, according to the point source model, occurs at a horizontal distance of 2.5–6 km from the source, at the same location as the main caldera boundary. Discrepancies between the observed displacements and predicted displacements from the Mogi model near the Askja caldera can be attributed to the regional eastwest extension that occurs at Askja.     

Challenges posed by and approaches to the study of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability

The tasks of providing multi-decadal climate projections and seasonal plus sub-seasonal climate predictions are of significant societal interest and pose major scientific challenges. An outline is presented of the challenges posed by, and the approaches adopted to, tracing the possible evolution of the climate system on these various time-scales. First an overview is provided of the nature of the climate system’s natural internal variations and the uncertainty arising from the complexity and non-linearity of the system. Thereafter consideration is given sequentially to the range of extant approaches adopted to study and derive multi-decadal climate projections, seasonal predictions, and significant sub-seasonal weather phenomena. For each of these three time-scales novel results are presented that indicate the nature (and limitations) of the models used to forecast the evolution, and illustrate the techniques adopted to reduce or cope with the forecast uncertainty. In particular, the contributions (i) appear to exemplify that in simple climate models uncertainties in radiative forcing outweigh uncertainties associated with ocean models, (ii) examine forecast skills for a state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system, and (iii) suggest that long-lived weather phenomena can help shape intra-seasonal climate variability. Finally, it is argued, that co-consideration of all these scales can enhance our understanding of the challenges associated with uncertainties in climate prediction.     

Localized climate change scenarios of mean temperature and precipitation over Switzerland

There is a growing need of the climate change impact modeling and adaptation community to have more localized climate change scenario information available over complex topography such as in Switzerland. A gridded dataset of expected future climate change signals for seasonal averages of daily mean temperature and precipitation in Switzerland is presented. The basic scenarios are taken from the CH2011 initiative. In CH2011, a Bayesian framework was applied to obtain probabilistic scenarios for three regions within Switzerland. Here, the results for two additional Alpine sub-regions are presented. The regional estimates have then been downscaled onto a regular latitude-longitude grid with a resolution of 0.02° or roughly 2 km. The downscaling procedure is based on the spatial structure of the climate change signals as simulated by the underlying regional climate models and relies on a Kriging with external drift using height as auxiliary predictor. The considered emission scenarios are A1B, A2 and the mitigation scenario RCP3PD. The new dataset shows an expected warming of about 1 to 6 °C until the end of the 21st century, strongly depending on the scenario and the lead time. Owing to a large vertical gradient, the warming is about 1 °C stronger in the Alps than in the Swiss lowlands. In case of precipitation, the projection uncertainty is large and in most seasons precipitation can increase or decrease. In summer a distinct decrease of precipitation can be found, again strongly depending on the emission scenario.     

Key climate indices in Switzerland; expected changes in a future climate

Climate indices facilitate the interpretation of expected climate change impacts for many sectors in society, economy, and ecology. The new localized data set of climatic change signals for temperature and precipitation presented by Zubler et al. (Clim Change, 2013) is applied for an analysis of frequently used climate indices in Switzerland. The indices considered are: number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days and ice days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. For the future periods 2020-49, 2045-74 and 2070–2099 the indices are computed using a delta-change approach based on the reference period 1980–2009 for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, and RCP3PD. The scenario data suggest the following relevant findings: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the scenarios A1B and A2, (2) an appearance of tropical nights even above 1500 m asl, (3) a possible reduction of the number of frost days by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m asl, (4) a decline of heating degree days by about 30 % until the end of the century, and (5) the near disappearance of days with fresh snow at low altitudes. It is also shown that the end-of-the-century projections of all indices strongly depend on the chosen emission scenario.     

Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2?m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations.