Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/?0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives.     

Mineral inclusions in fibrous diamonds: constraints on cratonic mantle refertilization and diamond formation

We analyzed mineral microinclusions in fibrous diamonds from the Wawa metaconglomerate (Superior craton) and Diavik kimberlites (Slave craton) and compared them with published compositions of large mineral inclusions in non-fibrous diamonds from these localities. The comparison, together with similar datasets available for Ekati and Koffiefontein kimberlites, suggest a general pattern of metasomatic alteration imposed on the ambient mantle by formation of fibrous diamond. Calcium and Fe enrichment of peridotitic garnet and pyroxenes and Fe enrichment of olivine associated with fibrous diamond-forming fluids contributes to refertilization of the cratonic mantle. Saline—carbonatitic—silicic fluid trapped by fibrous diamonds may represent one of the elusive agents of mantle refertilization. Calcium enrichment of peridotitic garnet and pyroxenes is expected in local mantle segments during fibrous diamond production, as Ca in the carbonatitic fluids is deposited into the surrounding mantle when oxidized carbon is reduced to diamond. Harzburgitic garnet evolves towards Ca-rich compositions even when it interacts with Ca-poor saline fluids. An unusual trend of Mg enrichment to Fo_95–98 is observed in some olivine inclusions in Wawa fibrous diamonds. The trend may result from the carbonatitic composition of the fluid that promotes crystallization of magnesian olivine and preferentially oxidizes the fayalite component. We propose a generic model of fibrous and non-fibrous diamond formation from carbonatitic fluids that explains enrichment of the mantle in mafic magmaphile and incompatible elements and accounts for locally metasomatized compositions of diamond inclusions.     

A bimodal four‐parameter lognormal linear model of soil water repellency persistence

Soil water repellency may be characterized in terms of the delayed infiltration time of a water droplet resting on the soil surface, which is, water drop penetration time (WDPT), or repellency persistence. Such repellency persistence varies nonlinearly with soil water content (θ_g), although no models have been proposed to reproduce the variation of WDPT with θ_g in soils. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) is used to identify two common patterns of unexplained variability in a scattered dataset of WDPT versus θ_g measurements. A four‐parameter lognormal distribution was fitted to both common patterns obtained by DFA, and these were combined additively in a weighted multiple linear bimodal model. We show how such an empirical model is capable of reproducing a large variety of WDPT versus θ_g curve shapes (N = 80) both within a wide range of measured WDPTs (0–17 000 s) and for samples with organic matter content ranging from 21·7 to 80·6 g (100 g)^?1. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Continual long-term monitoring of methane in wells above the Utica Shale using total dissolved gas pressure probes

Hydrogeology Journal - Monitoring of dissolved methane concentrations in groundwater is required to identify impacts from oil and gas development and to understand temporal variability under...     

Potential spread of recently naturalised plants in New Zealand under climate change

Climate change and biological invasions are major causes of biodiversity loss and may also have synergistic effects, such as range shifts of invaders due to changing climate. Bioclimatic models provide an important tool to assess how the threat of invasive species may change with altered temperature and precipitation regimes. In this study, potential distributions of three recently naturalised plant species in New Zealand are modelled (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla), using four different general circulation models (CCCMA-CGCM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, GFDL-CM2.0 and UKMO-HADCM3) with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) each. Based on a maximum entropy approach, models were trained on global data using a small set of uncorrelated predictors. The models were projected to the country of interest, using climate models that had been statistically downscaled to New Zealand, in order to obtain high resolution predictions. This study provides evidence of the potential range expansion of these species, with potentially suitable habitat increasing by as much as 169 % (A. cunninghamiana; with up to 115,805 km² of suitable habitat), 133 % (P. guajava; 164,450 km²) and 208 % (S. actinophylla; 31,257 km²) by the end of the century compared to the currently suitable habitat. The results show that while predictions vary depending on the chosen climate scenario, there is remarkable consistency amongst most climate models within the same emission scenario, with overlaps in areas of predicted presence ranging between 81 % and 99.5 % (excluding CSIRO-Mk3.0). By having a better understanding of how climate change will affect distribution of invasive plants, appropriate management measures can be taken.     

A source of high-velocity white dwarfs

We investigate whether the recently observed population of high-velocity white dwarfs can be derived from a population of binaries residing initially within the thin disc of the Galaxy. In particular, we consider binaries where the primary is sufficiently massive to explode as a Type II supernova. A large fraction of such binaries are broken up when the primary then explodes as a supernova, owing to the combined effects of the mass loss from the primary and the kick received by the neutron star on its formation. For binaries where the primary evolves to fill its Roche lobe, mass transfer from the primary leads to the onset of a common envelope phase during which the secondary and the core of the primary spiral together as the envelope is ejected. Such binaries are the progenitors of X-ray binaries if they are not broken up when the primary explodes. For those systems that are broken up, a large number of the secondaries receive kick velocities ∼100–200 km s⁻¹ and subsequently evolve into white dwarfs. We compute trajectories within the Galactic potential for this population of stars and relate the birth rate of these stars over the entire Galaxy to those seen locally with high velocities relative to the local standard of rest (LSR) . We show that for a reasonable set of assumptions concerning the Galactic supernova rate and the binary population, our model produces a local number density of high-velocity white dwarfs compatible with that inferred from observations. We therefore propose that a population of white dwarfs originating in the thin disc may make a significant contribution to the observed population of high-velocity white dwarfs.     

Central forces depending on the distance only. Case where all the bounded orbits are periodic

It is shown in this paper that the only potentials corresponding to central force for which all the bounded orbits are periodic are the potential of the harmonic oscillator and of the two body problem. A discussion is given in the case where a circular orbit exists and when the orbits near the circular orbit are periodic.We calculate in these cases the angle between pericentre and apocentre.Celestial Mechanics     

Refining the timing of eclogite metamorphism: a geochemical,petrological, Sm-Nd and U-Pb case study from the Pohorje Mountains,Slovenia (Eastern Alps)

High-pressure metamorphism in the Pohorje Mountains of Slovenia (Austroalpine unit, Eastern Alps) affected N-MORB type metabasic and metapelitic lithologies. Thermodynamic calculations and equilibrium phase diagrams of kyanite–phengite-bearing eclogites reveal PT conditions of >2.1 GPa at T<750°C, but within the stability field of quartz. Metapelitic eclogite country rocks contain the assemblage garnet + phengite + kyanite + quartz, for which calculated peak pressure conditions are in good agreement with results obtained from eclogite samples. The eclogites contain a single population of spherical zircon with a low Th/U ratio. Combined constraints on the age of metamorphism come from U/Pb zircon as well as garnet–whole rock and mineral–mineral Sm-Nd analyses from eclogites. A coherent cluster of single zircon analyses yields a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 90.7±1.0 Ma that is in good agreement with results from Sm-Nd garnet–whole rock regression of 90.7±3.9 and 90.1±2.0 Ma (εNd: +8) for two eclogite samples. The agreement between U-Pb and Sm-Nd age data strongly suggests an age of approximately 90 Ma for the pressure peak of the eclogites in the Pohorje Mountains. The presence of garnet, omphacite and quartz inclusions in unfractured zircon indicates high-pressure rather than ultrahigh pressure conditions. The analysed metapelite sample yields a Sm-Nd garnet–whole rock scatterchron age of 97±15 Ma. These data probably support a single P-T loop for mafic and pelitic lithologies of the Pohorje area and a late Cretaceous high-pressure event that affected the entire easternmost Austroalpine basement including the Koralpe and Saualpe eclogite type locality in the course of the complex collision of the Apulian microplate and Europe.     

Continuous GPS and broad-scale deformation across the Rhine Graben and the Alps

In order to study the ongoing tectonic deformation in the Rhine Graben area, we reconstruct the local crustal velocity and the strain rate field from GPS array solutions. Following the aim of this work, we compile the velocities of permanent GPS stations belonging to various networks (EUREF, AGNES, REGAL and RGP) in central western Europe. Moreover, the strain rate field is displayed in terms of principal axes and values, while the normal and the shear components of the strain tensor are calculated perpendicular and parallel to the strike of major faults. The results are compared with the fault plane solutions of earthquakes, which have occurred in this area. A broad-scale kinematic deformation model across the Rhine Graben is provided on the basis of tectonics and velocity results of the GPS permanent stations. The area of study is divided into four rigid blocks, between which there might be relative motions. The velocity and the strain rate fields are reconstructed along their borders, by estimating a uniform rotation for each block. The tectonic behaviour is well represented by the four-block model in the Rhine Graben area, while a more detailed model will be needed for a better reconstruction of the strain field in the Alpine region.