Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

The presolar grain inventory of fine‐grained chondrule rims in the Mighei‐type (CM) chondrites

We investigated the inventory of presolar silicate, oxide, and silicon carbide (SiC) grains of fine‐grained chondrule rims in six Mighei‐type (CM) carbonaceous chondrites (Banten, Jbilet Winselwan, Maribo, Murchison, Murray and Yamato 791198), and the CM‐related carbonaceous chondrite Sutter's Mill. Sixteen O‐anomalous grains (nine silicates, six oxides) were detected, corresponding to a combined matrix‐normalized abundance of ~18 ppm, together with 21 presolar SiC grains (~42 ppm). Twelve of the O‐rich grains are enriched in ¹⁷O, and could originate from low‐mass asymptotic giant branch stars. One grain is enriched in ¹⁷O and significantly depleted in ¹⁸O, indicative of additional cool bottom processing or hot bottom burning in its stellar parent, and three grains are of likely core‐collapse supernova origin showing enhanced ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios relative to the solar system ratio. We find a presolar silicate/oxide ratio of 1.5, significantly lower than the ratios typically observed for chondritic meteorites. This may indicate a higher degree of aqueous alteration in the studied meteorites, or hint at a heterogeneous distribution of presolar silicates and oxides in the solar nebula. Nevertheless, the low O‐anomalous grain abundance is consistent with aqueous alteration occurring in the protosolar nebula and/or on the respective parent bodies. Six O‐rich presolar grains were studied by Auger Electron Spectroscopy, revealing two Fe‐rich silicates, one forsterite‐like Mg‐rich silicate, two Al‐oxides with spinel‐like compositions, and one Fe‐(Mg‐)oxide. Scanning electron and transmission electron microscopic investigation of a relatively large silicate grain (490 nm × 735 nm) revealed that it was crystalline åkermanite (Ca₂Mg[Si₂O₇]) or a an åkermanite‐diopside (MgCaSi₂O₆) intergrowth.     

Dreifarbenphotometrie des offenen Sternhaufens An King 13

The open cluster An King 13 (α(1950) = 00^h07^m5 δ (1950) = +60°56') was measured in the UBV-system. An King 13 contained 80 stars up to the apparent magnitude m_v = 16.4 mag. The distance of the cluster is 1730 pc. The diameter of An King 13 is 7 pc. The luminocity function was determinated.     

Benthic nutrient fluxes along the Laurentian Channel: Impacts on the N budget of the St. Lawrence marine system

Water column concentrations and benthic fluxes of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and oxygen (DO) were measured in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Upper and Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (USLE and LSLE, respectively) to assess the nitrogen (N) budget in the St. Lawrence (SL) system, as well as to elucidate the impact of bottom water hypoxia on fixed-N removal in the LSLE. A severe nitrate deficit, with respect to ambient phosphate concentrations (N*∼−10 μmol L⁻¹), was observed within and in the vicinity of the hypoxic bottom water of the LSLE. Given that DO concentrations in the water column have remained above 50 μmol L⁻¹, nitrate reduction in suboxic sediments, rather than in the water column, is most likely responsible for the removal of fixed N from the SL system. Net nitrate fluxes into the sediments, derived from pore water nitrate concentration gradients, ranged from 190 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in the hypoxic western LSLE to 100 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in the Gulf. The average total benthic nitrate reduction rate for the Laurentian Channel (LC) is on the order of 690 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹, with coupled nitrification-nitrate reduction accounting for more than 70%. Using average nitrate reduction rates derived from the observed water column nitrate deficit, the annual fixed-N elimination within the three main channels of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and LSLE was estimated at 411 × 10⁶ t N, yielding an almost balanced N budget for the SL marine system.     

Trends,drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.     

Wildfire preparedness,community cohesion and social–ecological systems

The consequences of wildfires are felt in susceptible communities around the globe on an annual basis. Climate change predictions in places like the south-east of Australia and western United States suggest that wildfires may become more frequent and more intense with global climate change. Compounding this issue is progressive urban development at the peri-urban fringe (wildland–urban interface), where continued infrastructure development and demographic changes are likely to expose more people and property to this potentially disastrous natural hazard. Preparing well in advance of the wildfire season is seen as a fundamental behaviour that can both reduce community wildfire vulnerability and increase hazard resilience – it is an important element of adaptive capacity that allows people to coexist with the hazardous environment in which they live. We use household interviews and surveys to build and test a substantive model that illustrates how social cohesion influences the decision to prepare for wildfire. We demonstrate that social cohesion, particularly community characteristics like ‘sense of community’ and ‘collective problem solving’, are community-based resources that support both the adoption of mechanical preparations, and the development of cognitive abilities and capacities that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to wildfire. We use the results of this work to highlight opportunities to transfer techniques and approaches from natural hazards research to climate change adaptation research to explore how the impacts attributed to the social components of social–ecological systems can be mitigated more effectively.     

Gravimetry on the Erimo Seamount, Japan

A gravimetric survey on the sea-bottom was performed on the Erimo Seamount by the French submersible “Nautile”. It took place during the second phase of the Kaiko French-Japanese Program. The reference station was established on the Erimo submarine observatory at a depth of 3942 m and from this point the survey of four stations was carried out. The obtained accuracy of the gravity field measurements was about 0.1 mGal.

A three-dimensional model of the seamount and its surroundings was constrained by the free-air anomaly values from the sea surface and from the sea bottom and by the perfect Seabeam topography survey of the whole area. The model which fitted the observed values best, allowed us to identify a low-density layer of coral limestones and volcaniclastics capping the seamount and to define the geometry of the interface between basalts and coral rocks.     

Evidence of an early alteration process driven by magmatic fluid in Mururoa volcano

Evidence for a deuteric alteration process induced by a magmatic fluid has been found in the feeder zone of the Mururoa volcano (French Polynesia). Within the dikes, where basaltic glass does not show any evidence of pervasive alteration, vesicles are filled with dioctahedral smectites and calcite, while olivine phenocrysts are replaced by dioctahedral smectites, ankerite and calcite.The ¹³C signature of carbonates, the carbon and H₂O content of the whole rocks and their impoverishment in deuterium are compatible with the presence of magmatic CO₂ during the crystallization of intruding lavas and exclude contamination by seawater. Mass balance calculations on selected thin sections photographs of partly filled up vesicles and replaced olivine crystals, constrain, assuming a closed system interaction, the chemical composition of the initial fluid and the respective amounts of the initial solid phases involved in the alteration process. Thermodynamic modelings using the EQ3/6 software package correctly predict the mineralogic, chemical and isotopic exchanges accompanying alteration, thus validating the closed system assumption. The model which allows prediction of the influence of CO₂ on the alteration products, shows that, above a 0.25 CO₂ mole fraction in the initial fluid, the alteration is entirely controlled by the chemical composition of the initial solid phases. The presence of CO₂ implies the precipitation of dioctahedral smectites and carbonates instead of the magnesian smectites commonly observed in CO₂-free systems.The Mururoa feeder zone shows alteration features typical of a closed system interaction between the basaltic rock and a magmatic fluid in which seawater did not take part.