Do climate engineering experts display moral-hazard behaviour?

Discourse analyses and expert interviews about climate engineering (CE) report high levels of reflectivity about the technologies’ risks and challenges, implying that CE experts are unlikely to display moral hazard behaviour, i.e. a reduced focus on mitigation. This has, however, not been empirically tested. Within CE experts we distinguish between experts for radiation management (RM) and for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and analyse whether RM and CDR experts display moral hazard behaviour. For RM experts, we furthermore look at whether they agree to laboratory and field research, and how they perceive the risks and benefits of one specific RM method, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). Analyzing experts’ preferences for climate-policy options, we do not find a reduction of the mitigation budget, i.e. moral hazard, for RM or CDR experts compared to climate-change experts who are neither experts for RM nor for CDR. In particular, the budget shares earmarked for RM are low. The perceptions of risks and benefits of SAI are similar for RM and climate-change experts. Despite the difference in knowledge and expertise, experts and laypersons share an understanding of the benefits, while their perceptions of the risks differ: experts perceive the risks to be larger.

Key policy insights

• Experts surveyed all prioritize mitigation over carbon dioxide removal and in particular radiation management.

• In the views of the experts, SAI is not a viable climate policy option within the next 25 years, and potentially beyond, as global field-testing (which would be a precondition for long-term deployment) is widely rejected.

• In the case of SAI, greater knowledge leads to increased awareness of the uncertainty and complexity involved. Policy-makers need to be aware of this relationship and the potential misconceptions among laypersons with limited knowledge, and should follow the guidelines about communicating risks and uncertainties of CE that experts have been advised to follow.

     

Modeling the kinetics of silica nanocolloid formation and precipitation in geologically relevant aqueous solutions

The kinetics of the formation and precipitation of nanocolloidal silica from geologically relevant aqueous solutions is investigated. Changes in monomeric (SiO_2(mono)), nanocolloidal (SiO_2(nano)) and precipitated silica (SiO_2(ppt)) concentrations in aqueous solutions from pH 3 to 7, ionic strengths (IS) of 0.01 and 0.24 molal, and initial SiO₂ concentrations of 20.8, 12.5 and 4.2 mmolal (reported in [Icopini, G.A., Brantley, S.L., Heaney, P.J., 2005. Kinetics of silica oligomerization and nanocolloid formation as a function of pH and ionic strength at 25 °C. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta69(2), 293-303.]) were fit using two kinetic models. The first model, termed the concentration model, is taken from Icopini et al. (2005) and assumes that the rate of change of SiO_2(mono) as a function of time has a fourth-order dependence on the concentration of SiO_2(mono) in solution. The second model, termed the supersaturation model, incorporates the equilibrium concentration of amorphous silica and predicts that polymerization will be a function of the degree of silica supersaturation in solution with respect to amorphous silica. While both models generally predicted similar rate constants for a given set of experimental conditions, the supersaturation model described the long-term equilibrium behavior of the SiO_2(mono) fraction more accurately, resulting in significantly better fits of the monomeric data. No difference was seen between the model fits of the nanocolloidal silica fraction. At lower pH values (3-4), a metastable equilibrium was observed between SiO_2(mono) and SiO_2(nano). This equilibrium SiO_2(mono) concentration was found to be 6 mmolal, or three times the reported solubility of bulk amorphous silica under the experimental conditions studied and corresponds to the predicted solubility of amorphous silica colloids approximately 3 nm in diameter. Atomic force microscopy was used to determine the average size of the primary nanocolloidal particles to be ∼3 nm, which is in direct agreement with the solubility calculations. Larger aggregates of the primary nanocolloids were also observed to range in size from 30 to 40 nm. This work provides the first kinetic models describing the formation and evolution of nanocolloidal silica in environmentally relevant aqueous solutions. Results indicate that nanocolloidal silica is an important species at low pH and neutral pH at low ionic strengths and may play a more important role in geochemical cycles in natural aqueous systems than previously considered.     

Spatial variability in organic material sinking export in the Hudson Bay system,Canada, during fall

Spatial variations in the sinking export of organic material were assessed within the Hudson Bay system (i.e., Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait and Foxe Basin) during the second oceanographic expedition of ArcticNet, on board the CCGS Amundsen in early fall 2005. Sinking fluxes of particulate organic material were measured using short-term free-drifting particle interceptor traps deployed at 50, 100 and 150 m for 8–20 h at eight stations. Measurements of chlorophyll a (chl a), pheopigments (pheo), particulate organic carbon (POC), biogenic silica (BioSi), protists, fecal pellets and bacteria were performed on the collected material. In parallel, sea surface salinity and temperature were determined at 121 stations in the Hudson Bay system. Three hydrographic regions presenting different sedimentation patterns were identified based on average surface salinity and temperature. Hudson Strait was characterized by a marine signature, with high salinity (average=32.3) and low temperature (average=2.1 °C). Eastern Hudson Bay was strongly influenced by river runoff and showed the lowest average salinity (26.6) and highest average temperature (7.6 °C) of the three regions. Western Hudson Bay showed intermediate salinity (average=29.4) and temperature (average=4.4 °C). Sinking fluxes of total pigments (chl a+pheo: 3.37 mg m⁻² d⁻¹), diatom-associated carbon (19.8 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) and BioSi (50.2 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) at 50 m were highest in Hudson Strait. Eastern Hudson Bay showed higher sinking fluxes of total pigments (0.52 mg m⁻² d⁻¹), diatom-associated carbon (3.29 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) and BioSi (36.6 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) compared to western Hudson Bay (0.19, 0.05 and 7.76 mg m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively). POC sinking fluxes at 50 m were low and relatively uniform throughout the Hudson Bay system (50.0–76.8 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹), but spatial variations in the composition of the sinking organic material were observed. A large part (37–78%) of the total sinking POC was unidentifiable by microscopic observation and was qualified as amorphous detritus. Considering only the identifiable material, the major contributors to the POC sinking flux were intact protist cells in Hudson Strait (28%), fecal pellets in eastern Hudson Bay (52%) and bacteria in western Hudson Bay (17%). A significant depth-related attenuation of the POC sinking fluxes (average loss between 50 and 150 m=32%) and a significant increase in the BioSi:POC ratio (average increase between 50 and 150 m=76%) were observed in Hudson Strait and eastern Hudson Bay. For all other sinking fluxes and composition ratios, we found no statistically significant difference with depth. These results show that during fall, the sinking export of total POC from the euphotic zone remained fairly constant throughout the Hudson Bay system, whereas other components of the organic sinking material (e.g., chl a, BioSi, fecal pellets, protist cells) showed strong spatial variations.     

Sediment provenance of late Quaternary morainic,fluvial and loess‐like deposits in the southwestern Verkhoyansk Mountains (eastern Siberia) and implications for regional palaeoenvironmental reconstructions

A provenance analysis of late Quaternary deposits from tributaries of the Aldan and Lena rivers in Central Yakutia (eastern Siberia) was carried out using analysis of heavy minerals and clay mineralogy. Cluster analysis revealed one assemblage that is characterized by relatively high proportions of amphibole, orthopyroxene and garnet as well as pedogenic clay minerals, reflecting a sediment provenance from the wide catchment area of the Lena and Aldan rivers. In contrast, the three other clusters are dominated by stable heavy minerals with varying amounts of clinopyroxene, apatite and garnet, as well as high percentages of illite and chlorite that are indicative of source rocks of the Verkhoyansk Mountains. Glacial moraines reveal the local mountain source signal that is overprinted by the Lena‐Aldan signal in the oldest moraines by reworking processes. Alluvial sediments in the Verkhoyansk Foreland show a clear Lena source signal through intervals of the middle and late Pleistocene, related to a stream course closer to the mountains at that time. Loess‐like cover sediments are characterized by the dominant Lena provenance with increasing proportions of local mountain sources towards the mountain valleys. Aeolian sands in an alluvial terrace section at the mountain margin covering the time between 30 ka and 10 ka BP reflect temporarily dominant inputs of aeolian materials from the Lena Plains. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved salt imaging in a basin context by high resolution potential field data: Nordkapp Basin,Barents Sea

The seismic imaging of salt diapirs in the Nordkapp Basin gave rise to considerable problems in defining their shape and volume. Independent information was added by integrating the interpretation with high resolution gravity and magnetic data. We developed a novel, iterative workflow, separated into sub‐categories: sediments, salt structures, basement and Moho. Distinctions between the sources of the anomalies from different depths was achieved by utilizing the different decay characteristics of gravity, gravity gradiometry and high resolution magnetic anomalies. The workflow was applied to the southern part of the Nordkapp Basin. It started with the sedimentary model derived from seismics, populated with measured densities and magnetic susceptibilities and a starting model for the base salt. The residual after the removal of this model was interpreted in terms of a crustal model, including flexural isostatic calculations for the Moho with the sedimentary load. The residual after the removal of crustal and early sedimentary model was used to tune the salt model. As these major and minor modelling steps depend on each other, an iterative process was applied to stepwise improve the density and magnetic susceptibility model. The first vertical gradient of gravity and the magnetic field were found to give most information about the cap rock of the diapirs. The improvement in salt imaging, integrated with results from controlled‐source electromagnetic and magneto‐telluric modelling is shown for the salt diapir Uranus, where a well, terminated in the salt, constrains the minimum of the depth to base salt.     

Spatio-temporal assessment of perfluorinated compounds in the Brisbane River system,Australia: Impact of a major flood event

Perfluorinated chemicals including PFOA and PFOS have been widely used in consumer products and have become ubiquitous pollutants widely distributed in the aqueous environment. Following a major flood event in 2011, water samples were collected along a spatial gradient of the Brisbane River system to provide an initial estimate of the release of PFASs from flooded urban areas. PFOA (mean concentrations 0.13–6.1 ng L⁻¹) and PFOS (mean concentrations 0.18–15 ng L⁻¹) were the most frequently detected and abundant PFASs. Mean total PFASs concentrations increased from 0.83 ng L⁻¹ at the upstream Wivenhoe Dam to 40 ng L⁻¹ at Oxley Creek, representing an urban catchment. Total masses of PFOA and PFOS delivered into Moreton Bay from January to March were estimated to be 5.6 kg and 12 kg respectively. From this study, urban floodwaters appear to be a previously overlooked source of PFASs into the surrounding environment.     

Unravelling the morphogenesis of coastal terraces at Cape Laundi (Sumba Island,Indonesia): Insights from numerical models

The morphology of coastal sequences provides fundamental observations to unravel past sea level (SL) variations. For that purpose, converting morphometric observations into a SL datum requires understanding their morphogenesis. The long-lasting sequence of coral reef terraces (CRTs) at Cape Laundi (Sumba Island, Indonesia) could serve as a benchmark. Yet, it epitomizes a pitfall that challenges the ultimate goal: the overall chronology of its development remains poorly constrained. The polycyclic nature of the terraces, involving marine erosion and reoccupation of old coral colonies by more recent ones hinders any clear assignment of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) to specific terraces, in particular the reference datum corresponding to the last Interglacial maximum (i.e., MIS 5e). Thus, to overcome these obstacles, we numerically model the genesis of the sequence, testing a range of eustatic SL (ESL) reconstructions and uplift rates, as well as exploring the parameter space to address reef growth, erosion and sedimentation. A total of 625 model runs allowed us to improve the morpho-chronological constraints of the coastal sequence and, more particularly, to explain the morphogenesis of the several CRTs associated with MIS 5e. Our results suggest that the lowermost main terrace was first constructed during the marine transgression of MIS 5e and was later reshaped during the marine regression of MIS 5e, as well as during the MIS 5c and MIS 5a highstands. Finally, we discuss the general morphology of the sequence and the implications it may have on SL reconstructions. At Cape Laundi, as elsewhere, we emphasize the necessity of addressing the development of CRT sequences with a dynamic approach, that is, considering that a CRT is a landform built continuously throughout the history of SL oscillations, and not simply during a singular SL maximum.