A review of EU bio-economic models for fisheries: The value of a diversity of models

The lessons learned from a review of thirteen existing European bio-economic models used in the evaluation of EU policies are presented. How these models compare and differ in terms of their biological and economic components, the integration between the components, which indicators are selected and how they are used, are described and analysed. The article concludes that the multitude of construction differences reflects the necessity of adapting the modelling approach to answer different questions. Since real life questions in fisheries are so diverse, answering them requires a diversity of models.     

Spatial scan statistics in vulnerability assessment: an application to mountain hazards

In the European Alps, the concept of risk has increasingly been applied in order to reduce the susceptibility of society to mountain hazards. Risk is defined as a function of the magnitude and frequency of a hazard process times consequences; the latter being quantified by the value of elements at risk exposed and their vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined by the degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from the impact of a natural hazard. Recent empirical studies suggested a dependency of the degree of loss on the hazard impact, and respective vulnerability (or damage-loss) functions were developed. However, until now, only little information is available on the spatial characteristics of vulnerability on a local scale; considerable ranges in the loss ratio for medium process intensities only provide a hint that there might be mutual reasons for lower or higher loss rates. In this paper, we therefore focus on the spatial dimension of vulnerability by searching for spatial clusters in the damage ratio of elements at risk exposed. By using the software SaTScan, we applied an ordinal data model and a normal data model in order to detect spatial distribution patterns of five individual torrent events in Austria. For both models, we detected some significant clusters of high damage ratios, and consequently high vulnerability. Moreover, secondary clusters of high and low values were found. Based on our results, the assumption that lower process intensities result in lower damage ratios, and therefore in lower vulnerability, and vice versa, has to be partly rejected. The spatial distribution of vulnerability is not only dependent on the process intensities but also on the overall land use pattern and the individual constructive characteristics of the buildings exposed. Generally, we suggest the use of a normal data model for test sites exceeding a minimum of 30 elements at risk exposed. As such, the study enhanced our understanding of spatial vulnerability patterns on a local scale.     

Eutrophication and salinization of urban and rural kettle lakes in Kalamazoo and Barry Counties,Michigan, USA

Salinization and eutrophication caused by runoff of road salt and nutrients was assessed in three kettle lakes, two (Woods and Asylum Lakes) located in urban Kalamazoo, MI, and one (Brewster Lake) in rural Hastings, MI. Profiles of dissolved O₂, conductivity, pH, and temperature were measured in situ, at half meter intervals. Water samples were collected at discrete depth intervals of 1 m and analyzed for Fe(II), Mn(II), ammonium, alkalinity, Cl^?, Na, Mg, K and Ca. Results of this study indicate that all three lakes are eutrophic with anoxic bottom waters. Conductivity was much greater, and Cl^? levels were more than 100 times greater, in the two urban lakes compared to the rural lake, demonstrating the significant impact of road salt deicers on urban lake water chemistry.     

Environmental Determinants of Emergent Macrophyte Vegetation in Pacific Northwest Estuarine Tidal Wetlands

We investigated whether within wetland environmental conditions or surrounding land cover measured at multiple scales were more influential in structuring regional vegetation patterns in estuarine tidal wetlands in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Surrounding land cover was characterized at the 100, 250, and 1,000 m, and watershed buffer scales. Vegetation communities were characterized by high species richness, lack of monotypic zonation, and paucity of invasive species. The number of species per site ranged between 4 and 20 (mean?±?standard deviation?=?10.2?±?3.1). Sites supported a high richness (mean richness of native species 8.7?±?2.8) and abundance of native macrophytes (mean relative abundance 85 %?±?19 %). Vegetation assemblages were dominated by a mix of grasses, sedges, and herbs with Sarcocornia pacifica and Distichlis spicata being common at sites in the oceanic zone of the estuary and Carex lyngbyei and Agrostis stolonifera being common at the fresher sites throughout the study area. The vegetation community was most strongly correlated with salinity and land cover within close proximity to the study site and less so with land cover variables at the watershed scale. Total species richness and richness of native species were negatively correlated with the amount of wetland in the buffer at all scales, while abundance of invasive species was significantly correlated to within wetland factors, including salinity and dissolved phosphorus concentrations. Landscape factors related to anthropogenic disturbances were only important at the 100-m buffer scale, with anthropogenic disturbances further from the wetland not being influential in shaping the vegetation assemblage. Our research suggests that the traditional paradigms of tidal wetland vegetation structure and environmental determinants developed in east coast US tidal wetlands might not hold true for Pacific Northwest wetlands due to their unique chemical and physical factors, necessitating further detailed study of these systems.     

Uniwavelength lidar sensitivity to spherical aerosol microphysical properties for the interpretation of Lagrangian stratospheric observations

The determination of stratospheric particle microphysical properties from multiwavelength lidar, including Rayleigh and/or Raman detection, has been widely investigated. However, most lidar systems are uniwavelength operating at 532 nm. Although the information content of such lidar data is too limited to allow the retrieval of the full size distribution, the coupling of two or more uniwavelength lidar measurements probing the same moving air parcel may provide some meaningful size information. Within the ORACLE-O3 IPY project, the coordination of several ground-based lidars and the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) space-borne lidar is planned during measurement campaigns called MATCH-PSC (Polar Stratospheric Clouds). While probing the same moving air masses, the evolution of the measured backscatter coefficient (BC) should reflect the variation of particles microphysical properties. A sensitivity study of 532 nm lidar particle backscatter to variations of particles size distribution parameters is carried out. For simplicity, the particles are assumed to be spherical (liquid) particles and the size distribution is represented with a unimodal log-normal distribution. Each of the four microphysical parameters (i.e. log-normal size distribution parameters, refractive index) are analysed separately, while the three others are remained set to constant reference values. Overall, the BC behaviour is not affected by the initial values taken as references. The total concentration (N₀) is the parameter to which BC is least sensitive, whereas it is most sensitive to the refractive index (m). A 2% variation of m induces a 15% variation of the lidar BC, while the uncertainty on the BC retrieval can also reach 15%. This result underlines the importance of having both an accurate lidar inversion method and a good knowledge of the temperature for size distribution retrieval techniques. The standard deviation (σ) is the second parameter to which BC is most sensitive to. Yet, the impact of m and σ on BC variations is limited by the realistic range of their variations. The mean radius (r_m) of the size distribution is thus the key parameter for BC, as it can vary several-fold. BC is most sensitive to the presence of large particles. The sensitivity of BC to r_m and σ variations increases when the initial size distributions are characterized by low r_m and large σ. This makes lidar more suitable to detect particles growing on background aerosols than on volcanic aerosols.     

Wildfire preparedness,community cohesion and social–ecological systems

The consequences of wildfires are felt in susceptible communities around the globe on an annual basis. Climate change predictions in places like the south-east of Australia and western United States suggest that wildfires may become more frequent and more intense with global climate change. Compounding this issue is progressive urban development at the peri-urban fringe (wildland–urban interface), where continued infrastructure development and demographic changes are likely to expose more people and property to this potentially disastrous natural hazard. Preparing well in advance of the wildfire season is seen as a fundamental behaviour that can both reduce community wildfire vulnerability and increase hazard resilience – it is an important element of adaptive capacity that allows people to coexist with the hazardous environment in which they live. We use household interviews and surveys to build and test a substantive model that illustrates how social cohesion influences the decision to prepare for wildfire. We demonstrate that social cohesion, particularly community characteristics like ‘sense of community’ and ‘collective problem solving’, are community-based resources that support both the adoption of mechanical preparations, and the development of cognitive abilities and capacities that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to wildfire. We use the results of this work to highlight opportunities to transfer techniques and approaches from natural hazards research to climate change adaptation research to explore how the impacts attributed to the social components of social–ecological systems can be mitigated more effectively.     

Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/?0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives.     

MTBE in Drinking Water Production – Occurrence and Efficiency of Treatment Technologies

In Germany, the gasoline additive methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is almost constantly detected in measurable concentrations in surface waters and is not significantly removed during riverbank filtration. The removal of MTBE from water has been the focus of many studies that mostly were performed at high concentration levels and centred in understanding the mechanisms of elimination. In order to assess the performance of conventional and advanced water treatment technologies for MTBE removal in the low concentration range further studies were undertaken. Laboratory experiments included aeration, granulated activated carbon (GAC) adsorption, ozonation and advanced oxidation processes (AOP). The results show that the removal of MTBE by conventional technologies is not easily achieved. MTBE is only removed by aeration at high expense. Ozonation at neutral pH values did not prove to be effective in eliminating MTBE at all. The use of ozone/H₂O₂ (AOP) may lead to a partly elimination of MTBE. However, the ozone/H₂O₂ concentrations required for a complete removal of MTBE from natural waters is much higher than the ozone levels applied nowadays in waterworks. MTBE is only poorly adsorbed on activated carbon, thus GAC filtration is not efficient in eliminating MTBE. A comparison with real‐life data from German waterworks reveals that if MTBE is detected in the raw water it is most often found in the corresponding drinking water as well due to the poor removal efficiency of conventional treatment steps.     

Seasonal variation and tidal influences on estuarine use by bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus)

In order to show that dolphins use estuary habitats differently depending on the season and tidal state, possibly in response to prey distribution, temperature, risk of stranding and accessibility, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) were observed year-round during a 3-year study in the Clarence River estuary (CR) and Richmond River estuary (RR) in northern New South Wales, Australia. Peak dolphin sightings occurred during the spring season and one or 2 h prior to high tide. The spatial distribution of the dolphins in each estuary was analysed using the distance in kilometres that the dolphins travelled upstream with seasons and tidal phase as determinants. A General Linear Model showed that in the CR the dolphin spatial distribution in the estuary was not determined by season (F = 0.434, df = 3, P = 0.729) but was by tidal phase (F = 9.943, df = 3, P < 0.001) and the interaction between season and tidal phase (F = 3.398, df = 9, P < 0.002). However, in the RR the spatial distribution of the dolphin use of the estuary was not determined by either season (F = 1.647, df = 3, P = 0.194) or tidal phase (F = 0.302, df = 3, P = 0.824). In the CR, the spatial distribution of the dolphins was largest on high and flood tides. This pattern of spatial distribution may occur because the CR is a relatively shallow estuary and this increased spatial distribution may reflect a lower stranding risk and an increase in accessibility of shallow areas during periods of higher tide. These areas could also provide access to their preferred prey items of sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata).