Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region     

The natural thermoluminescence of Antarctic meteorites and their terrestrial ages and orbits: A 2010 update

Abstract– We have examined the relationship between natural thermoluminescence (TL) and ²⁶Al in 120 Antarctic meteorites in order to explore the orbital history and terrestrial ages of these meteorites. Our results confirm the observations of Hasan et al. (1987) which were based on 23 meteorites. For most meteorites there was a positive correlation between natural TL and ²⁶Al, reflecting their similarity in decay rate under Antarctic conditions and thus in terrestrial age. For a small group with low TL and high ²⁶Al a small perihelion was proposed. Within this group, natural TL decreases with terrestrial age as determined by ³⁶Cl measurements, although the rate of TL decay is faster (half‐life approximately 10 ka) and the ages that can be determined are smaller (<200 ka) than for most meteorites. The faster decay rate and lower natural TL levels are a reflection of recent exposure to higher radiation doses and higher temperatures, since this history would populate less stable TL traps with smaller electron densities. We sort the 120 meteorites by perihelion and terrestrial age. The normal perihelion group range up to approximately 1000 ka and the small perihelion group range up to approximately 200 ka. An intermediate perihelion group tends to have short terrestrial ages (20–60 ka). There is acceptable agreement between most (34 out of 43) of our present terrestrial age estimates and those determined by isotopic means, the exceptions reflecting complex irradiation histories, long burial times in the Antarctic, or other issues.     

The Influence of Coastal Nutrients on Phytoplankton Productivity in a Shallow Low Inflow Estuary,Drakes Estero,California (USA)

Seasonal wind-driven upwelling along the U.S. West Coast supplies large concentrations of nitrogen to surface waters that drives high primary production. However, the influence of coastal upwelled nutrients on phytoplankton productivity in adjacent small estuaries and bays is poorly understood. This study was conducted in Drakes Estero, California, a low inflow estuary located in the Point Reyes National Seashore and the site of an oyster mariculture facility that produces 40 % of the oysters harvested in California. Measurements of nutrients, chlorophyll a, phytoplankton functional groups, and phytoplankton carbon and nitrogen uptake were made between May 2010 and June 2011. A sea-to-land gradient in nutrient concentrations was observed with elevated nitrate at the coast and higher ammonium at the landward region. Larger phytoplankton cells (>5 μm diameter) were dominant within the outer and middle Estero where phytoplankton primary productivity was fueled by nitrate and f-ratios were >0.5; the greatest primary production rates were in the middle Estero. Primary production was lowest within the inner Estero, where smaller phytoplankton cells (<5 μm) were dominant, and nitrogen uptake was dominated by ammonium. Phytoplankton blooms occurred at the outer and middle Estero and were dominated by diatoms during the spring and dry-upwelling seasons but dinoflagellates during the fall. Small flagellated algae (>2 μm) were dominant at the inner Estero where no blooms occurred. These results indicate that coastal nitrate and phytoplankton are imported into Drakes Estero and lead to periods of high new production that can support the oyster mariculture; a likely scenario also for other small estuaries and bays.     

PM2.5 co-benefits of climate change legislation part 1: California’s AB 32

The Scoping Plan for compliance with California Assembly Bill 32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; AB 32) proposes a substantial reduction in 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from all economic sectors through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other technological measures. Most of the AB 32 Scoping Plan measures will simultaneously reduce emissions of traditional criteria pollutants along with GHGs leading to a co-benefit of improved air quality in California. The present study quantifies the airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5) co-benefits of AB 32 by comparing future air quality under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario (without AB 32) to AB 32 implementation by sector. AB 32 measures were divided into five levels defined by sector as follows: 1) industrial sources, 2) electric utility and natural gas sources, 3) agricultural sources, 4) on-road mobile sources and 5) other mobile sources. Air quality throughout California was simulated using the UCD source-oriented air quality model during 12 days of severe air pollution and over 108 days of typical meteorology representing an annual average period in the year 2030 (10 years after the AB 32 adoption deadline). The net effect of all AB 32 measures reduced statewide primary PM and NO_x emissions by ~1 % and ~15 %, respectively. Air quality simulations predict that these emissions reductions lower population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations by ~6 % for California. The South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) experienced the greatest reductions in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 transportation measures while the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) experiences the smallest reductions or even slight increases in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 measures that called for increased use of dairy biogas for electricity generation. The ~6 % reduction in PM_2.5 exposure associated with AB 32 predicted in the current study reduced air pollution mortality in California by 6.2 %, avoiding 880 (560–1100) premature deaths per year for the conditions in 2030. The monetary benefit from this avoided mortality was estimated at $5.4B/yr with a weighted average benefit per tonne of $35 k/tonne ($23 k/tonne–$45 k/tonne) of PM, NO_x, SO_x, and NH₃ emissions reduction.     

Cryogenic Core Collection and Preservation of Subsurface Samples for Biomolecular Analysis

A cryogenic coring system for the collection and preservation of biomolecules in unconsolidated subsurface solid samples is presented here. The sampler is based on existing direct‐push coring technology, with the addition of a cryogenic step to freeze the sample in situ. Once brought to the surface, the frozen cores can be packed in dry ice and shipped to the laboratory for further processing and analysis. The approach prevents redistribution of fluids during sample recovery and shipping, and because the cores are frozen in situ there is little loss of solid material during retrieval to ground surface. To evaluate the performance of the approach, DNA analyses of samples collected by cryogenic coring in a very large physical model are compared with results from water samples and horizontal core samples taken in close proximity. The data indicate that the vertical distribution of DNA within the cryogenic core can be measured at the centimeter scale, providing unprecedented characterization of subsurface biogeochemical interfaces.     

Integration of Local Observations into the One Dimensional Fog Model PAFOG

The numerical prediction of fog requires a very high vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Owing to a prohibitive computational effort of high resolution three dimensional models, operational fog forecast is usually done by means of one dimensional fog models. An important condition for a successful fog forecast with one dimensional models consists of the proper integration of observational data into the numerical simulations. The goal of the present study is to introduce new methods for the consideration of these data in the one dimensional radiation fog model PAFOG. First, it will be shown how PAFOG may be initialized with observed visibilities. Second, a nudging scheme will be presented for the inclusion of measured temperature and humidity profiles in the PAFOG simulations. The new features of PAFOG have been tested by comparing the model results with observations of the German Meteorological Service. A case study will be presented that reveals the importance of including local observations in the model calculations. Numerical results obtained with the modified PAFOG model show a distinct improvement of fog forecasts regarding the times of fog formation, dissipation as well as the vertical extent of the investigated fog events. However, model results also reveal that a further improvement of PAFOG might be possible if several empirical model parameters are optimized. This tuning can only be realized by comprehensive comparisons of model simulations with corresponding fog observations.     

Growth rate of the preserved continental crust: II. Constraints from Hf and O isotopes in detrital zircons from Greater Russian Rivers

Detrital zircons from the Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Amur, Volga, Dnieper, Don and Pechora rivers have been analyzed for U-Th-Pb, O and Lu-Hf isotopes to constrain the growth rate of the preserved continental crust in Greater Russia. Four major periods of zircon crystallization, 0.1-0.55, 0.95-1.3, 1.45-2.0 and 2.5-2.9 Ga, were resolved from a compilation of 1366 zircon U/Pb ages. The Archean zircons have δ¹⁸O values lying between 4.53‰ and 7.33‰, whereas Proterozoic and Phanerozoic zircons have a larger range of δ¹⁸O values in each of the recognized U/Pb time intervals with maximum δ¹⁸O values up to 12‰. We interpret the zircons with δ¹⁸O between 4.5‰ and 6.5‰ to have been derived from a magmatic precursor that contains little or no sedimentary component. The variable δ¹⁸O values of the zircons were used to constrain the ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios of the crustal source region of the zircons, which, in turn, were used to calculate Hf model ages (T_DM^V). The crustal incubation time, the time difference between primitive crust formation (dated by T_DM^V) and crustal melting (dated by zircon U/Pb age), varies between 300 to 1000 Myr for the majority of analyzed zircon grains, but can be up to 2500 Myr. The average T_DM^V Hf model age weighted by the fraction of zircons in the river load is 2.12 Ga, which is in reasonable agreement with the area-weighted average of 2.25 Ga. The T_DM^V Hf model age crustal growth curve for zircons with mantle-like δ¹⁸O values (4.5-6.5‰), weighted by area, shows that growth of the Great Russian continental crust started at 4.2 Ga, and that there are two principal periods of crustal growth, 3.6-3.3 Ga and 0.8-0.6 Ga, which are separated by an interval of low but more or less continuous growth. An alternative interpretation, in which the average ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratio (0.0115) of the continental crust is used for the Paleoproterozoic zircons from the Lena River, lowers the average T_DM^V age of these grains by about 500 Myr and delays the onset of significant crustal growth to 3.5 Ga.The two principal growth periods recognized in Greater Russia differ from those identified from the Gondwana and the Mississippi river basin, which show peaks at 1.7-1.9 and 2.9-3.1 Ga (Hawkesworth and Kemp, 2006a) and 1.6-2.2 and 2.9-3.4 Ga (Wang et al., 2009), respectively. The older 3.6-3.3 Ga or 3.5-3.3 Ga peak for Greater Russia is slightly older than the older Gondwana-Mississippi peaks, whereas the younger 0.8-0.6 Ga peak is distinctly younger than the youngest peak in either Gondwana or the Mississippi river basin. This suggests that the two major peaks of crustal growth identified in Gondwana and the Mississippi river basin may not be global periods of enhanced continental growth and that the major periods of crustal growth may differ from continent to continent.     

Exposure of dissolved organic matter to UV-radiation increases bacterial growth efficiency in a clear-water Alpine stream and its adjacent groundwater

In many streams, microbial growth largely relies on terrigenous organic carbon that has been initially stored in soils and that is generally believed to be recalcitrant to microbial metabolism. The various mechanisms that underlie the availability of terrigenous organic carbon as it enters streams remain poorly understood. One possible mechanism can be photodegradation of terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (DOC) upon exposure to sunlight in streamwater. To explore this, we experimentally exposed streamwater, shallow groundwater and soil water from a clear-water Alpine headwater stream, and both soil and algal extracts, to UV-radiation and studied the effects on DOC optical properties and implications for microbial growth. Our results on the apparent quantum yield suggest that DOC from groundwater and soil water is more resistant to photodegradation than DOC in the streamwater itself. This would highlight the relevance of the exposure history of DOC to sunlight. Overall, UV-radiation decreased the aromaticity (as SUVA254) of the DOC and reduced its molecular weight as indicated by the slope ratio, S _R (S _275–295/S _350–400). UV-treatment significantly increased bacterial growth rate and bacterial growth efficiency in the streamwater, soil water, groundwater and soil extract but not in algal extract. Our findings suggest photodegradation as one mechanism that contributes to the microbial utilisation of terrigenous DOC even in clear-water streams.     

Atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms of extratropical North Atlantic SST influence on Sahel rainfall

Extratropical North Atlantic cooling has been tied to droughts over the Sahel in both paleoclimate observations and modeling studies. This study, which uses an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a slab ocean model that simulates this connection, explores the hypothesis that the extratropical North Atlantic cooling causes the Sahel droughts via an atmospheric teleconnection mediated by tropospheric cooling. The drying is also produced in a regional climate model simulation of the Sahel when reductions in air temperature (and associated geopotential height and humidity changes) from the GCM simulation are imposed as the lateral boundary conditions. This latter simulation explicitly demonstrates the central role of tropospheric cooling in mediating the atmospheric teleconnection from extratropical North Atlantic cooling. Diagnostic analyses are applied to the GCM simulation to infer teleconnection mechanisms. An analysis of top of atmosphere radiative flux changes diagnosed with a radiative kernel technique shows that extratropical North Atlantic cooling is augmented by a positive low cloud feedback and advected downstream, cooling Europe and North Africa. The cooling over North Africa is further amplified by a reduced greenhouse effect from decreased atmospheric specific humidity. A moisture budget analysis shows that the direct moisture effect and monsoon weakening, both tied to the ambient cooling and resulting circulation changes, and feedbacks by vertical circulation and evaporation augment the rainfall reduction. Cooling over the Tropical North Atlantic in response to the prescribed extratropical cooling also augments the Sahel drying. Taken together, they suggest a thermodynamic pathway for the teleconnection. The teleconnection may also be applicable to understanding the North Atlantic influence on Sahel rainfall over the twentieth century.     

Assessing physical vulnerability in large cities exposed to flash floods and debris flows: the case of Arequipa (Peru)

Understanding the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to natural hazards is an essential step in risk assessment for large cities. We have interpreted high spatial resolution images, conducted field surveys, and utilized numerical simulations, in order to assess vulnerability across Arequipa, south Peru, close to the active El Misti volcano. The emphasis of this study was on flash floods and volcanic or non-volcanic hyperconcentrated flows, which recur on average every 3.5 years across the city. We utilized a geographic information system to embed vulnerability and hazard maps as a step to calculate risk for buildings and bridges along the Río Chili valley and two tributaries. A survey of ~1,000 buildings from 46 city blocks, different in age, construction materials, and land usage, provided architectural and structural characteristics. A similar survey of twenty bridges across the three valleys was based on structural, hydraulic, and strategic parameters. Interpretation of high spatial resolution (HSR) satellite images, which allows for quick identification of approximately 69 % of the structural building types, effectively supplemented field data collection. Mapping vulnerability has led us to pinpoint strategic areas in case of future destructive floods or flows. Calculated vulnerability is high if we examine structural criteria alone. We further consider physical setting with the most vulnerable city blocks located on the lowermost terraces, perpendicular or oblique to the flow path. Statistical analysis conducted on 3,015 city blocks, considering nine criteria identified from HSR images, indicated that building-type heterogeneity and the shape of the city blocks, along with building and street network density, are the most discriminant parameters for assessing vulnerability.