Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation?

The ability to directly remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere allows the decoupling of emissions and emissions control in space and time. We ask the question whether this unique feature of carbon dioxide removal technologies fundamentally alters the dynamics of climate mitigation pathways. The analysis is performed in the coupled energy-economy-climate model ReMIND using the bioenergy with CCS route as an application of CDR technology. BECCS is arguably the least cost CDR option if biomass availability is not a strongly limiting factor. We compare mitigation pathways with and without BECCS to explore the impact of CDR technologies on the mitigation portfolio. Effects are most pronounced for stringent climate policies where BECCS is a key technology for the effectiveness of carbon pricing policies. The decoupling of emissions and emissions control allows prolonging the use of fossil fuels in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. It also balances the distribution of mitigation costs across future generations. CDR is not a silver bullet technology. The largest part of emissions reductions continues to be provided by direct mitigation measures at the emissions source. The value of CDR lies in its flexibility to alleviate the most costly constraints on mitigating emissions.     

First perissodactyl footprints from Flysch deposits of the Barail Group (Lower Oligocene) of Manipur,India

Two pes imprints of a perissodactyl mammal constituting a single step of a trackway have recently been discovered in Oligocene Flysch deposits of the Barail Group in Manipur, India. The tridactyl, mesaxonic imprints (~7 cm in length) show strong similarities to footprints known from the Paleogene of China and can be attributed to a tapiroid, rhinocerotoid or equoid trackmaker. This is the first record of perissodactyl footprints from the Lower Oligocene of India and the first evidence of mammals in the Barail Group of the age. Remarkable is the occurrence in a marginal marine setting, whereas other known perissodactyl footprints from the Eocene–Oligocene in particular from North America, Europe and China come from fluvio-lacustrine strata.     

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions of Rhine and Upper Danube rivers based on the results of regional climate and hydrological models

The main objective of the Effects of Climate Change On the Inland waterway Networks (ECCONET) EU FP7 project was to assess the effect of climate change on the inland waterway transport network with special emphasis on the Rhine and Upper Danube catchments. The assessment was based on consolidation and analysis of earlier and existing research work as well as application of existing climate change and hydrological modelling tools. A key premise at the planning stage of the project had been that all impact studies conducted within ECCONET should be comparable with each other. This can be guaranteed by the common meteorological and hydrological basis. The climate model simulations, which are the most physics- and process-oriented tools for projecting the future climate evolution, include several uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties exist in the hydrological model simulations. In ECCONET, an effort was made to quantify the uncertainty range by using “representative projections” that represent both the lower and upper signals of hydrological low-flow parameters for 2021–2050 over the Rhine catchment. Their evaluation indicated that the finally chosen two regional climate model simulations could be applied also for the Upper Danube catchments as representative projections. The raw climate model outputs have been corrected to the observation data set through application of the linear scaling and the delta-change method. The first impact studies carried out after validation of the hydrological models resulted in discharge scenarios used as input to the economic models in ECCONET.     

Assessing physical vulnerability in large cities exposed to flash floods and debris flows: the case of Arequipa (Peru)

Understanding the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to natural hazards is an essential step in risk assessment for large cities. We have interpreted high spatial resolution images, conducted field surveys, and utilized numerical simulations, in order to assess vulnerability across Arequipa, south Peru, close to the active El Misti volcano. The emphasis of this study was on flash floods and volcanic or non-volcanic hyperconcentrated flows, which recur on average every 3.5 years across the city. We utilized a geographic information system to embed vulnerability and hazard maps as a step to calculate risk for buildings and bridges along the Río Chili valley and two tributaries. A survey of ~1,000 buildings from 46 city blocks, different in age, construction materials, and land usage, provided architectural and structural characteristics. A similar survey of twenty bridges across the three valleys was based on structural, hydraulic, and strategic parameters. Interpretation of high spatial resolution (HSR) satellite images, which allows for quick identification of approximately 69 % of the structural building types, effectively supplemented field data collection. Mapping vulnerability has led us to pinpoint strategic areas in case of future destructive floods or flows. Calculated vulnerability is high if we examine structural criteria alone. We further consider physical setting with the most vulnerable city blocks located on the lowermost terraces, perpendicular or oblique to the flow path. Statistical analysis conducted on 3,015 city blocks, considering nine criteria identified from HSR images, indicated that building-type heterogeneity and the shape of the city blocks, along with building and street network density, are the most discriminant parameters for assessing vulnerability.     

The Influence of Coastal Nutrients on Phytoplankton Productivity in a Shallow Low Inflow Estuary,Drakes Estero,California (USA)

Seasonal wind-driven upwelling along the U.S. West Coast supplies large concentrations of nitrogen to surface waters that drives high primary production. However, the influence of coastal upwelled nutrients on phytoplankton productivity in adjacent small estuaries and bays is poorly understood. This study was conducted in Drakes Estero, California, a low inflow estuary located in the Point Reyes National Seashore and the site of an oyster mariculture facility that produces 40 % of the oysters harvested in California. Measurements of nutrients, chlorophyll a, phytoplankton functional groups, and phytoplankton carbon and nitrogen uptake were made between May 2010 and June 2011. A sea-to-land gradient in nutrient concentrations was observed with elevated nitrate at the coast and higher ammonium at the landward region. Larger phytoplankton cells (>5 μm diameter) were dominant within the outer and middle Estero where phytoplankton primary productivity was fueled by nitrate and f-ratios were >0.5; the greatest primary production rates were in the middle Estero. Primary production was lowest within the inner Estero, where smaller phytoplankton cells (<5 μm) were dominant, and nitrogen uptake was dominated by ammonium. Phytoplankton blooms occurred at the outer and middle Estero and were dominated by diatoms during the spring and dry-upwelling seasons but dinoflagellates during the fall. Small flagellated algae (>2 μm) were dominant at the inner Estero where no blooms occurred. These results indicate that coastal nitrate and phytoplankton are imported into Drakes Estero and lead to periods of high new production that can support the oyster mariculture; a likely scenario also for other small estuaries and bays.     

Geochemical constraints on the origin of the Permian Baimazhai mafic–ultramafic intrusion,SW China

The ∼260 Ma Baimazhai mafic–ultramafic intrusion is considered to be part of the Emeishan large igneous province and consists of orthopyroxenite surrounded by websterite and gabbro. The intrusion is variably mineralized with a massive sulfide ore body (∼20 vol.%) in the core of the intrusion. Silicate rocks have Ni/Cu ratios ranging from 0.3 to 46 with majority less than 7 and are rich in LREE relative to HREE and show Nb and Ta anomalies in primitive mantle-normalized trace element patterns, with low Nb/Th (1.0–4.5) and Nb/La (0.3–1.0) ratios. Their ɛ Nd(t) values range from −3.3 to −8.4. Uniform Pd/Pt (0.7–3.5) and Cu/Pd (100,000–400,000) ratios throughout the intrusion indicate that all the sulfides in the rocks were formed in a single sulfide-saturation event. Modeling suggests that the Baimazhai rocks were formed when an Mg-rich magma became crustally contaminated in a deep-seated staging chamber. Crustal contamination (up to ∼35%) drove the magma to S-saturation and forced orthopyroxene (Opx) onto the liquidus. The crystal-bearing magma forced out of the staging chamber was migrated by flow differentiation and consequently, the denser sulfide melt and the Opx crystals became centrally disposed in the flowing magma to form the Baimazhai intrusion.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available to authorised users in the online version of this article at .     

PM2.5 co-benefits of climate change legislation part 1: California’s AB 32

The Scoping Plan for compliance with California Assembly Bill 32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; AB 32) proposes a substantial reduction in 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from all economic sectors through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other technological measures. Most of the AB 32 Scoping Plan measures will simultaneously reduce emissions of traditional criteria pollutants along with GHGs leading to a co-benefit of improved air quality in California. The present study quantifies the airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5) co-benefits of AB 32 by comparing future air quality under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario (without AB 32) to AB 32 implementation by sector. AB 32 measures were divided into five levels defined by sector as follows: 1) industrial sources, 2) electric utility and natural gas sources, 3) agricultural sources, 4) on-road mobile sources and 5) other mobile sources. Air quality throughout California was simulated using the UCD source-oriented air quality model during 12 days of severe air pollution and over 108 days of typical meteorology representing an annual average period in the year 2030 (10 years after the AB 32 adoption deadline). The net effect of all AB 32 measures reduced statewide primary PM and NO_x emissions by ~1 % and ~15 %, respectively. Air quality simulations predict that these emissions reductions lower population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations by ~6 % for California. The South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) experienced the greatest reductions in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 transportation measures while the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) experiences the smallest reductions or even slight increases in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 measures that called for increased use of dairy biogas for electricity generation. The ~6 % reduction in PM_2.5 exposure associated with AB 32 predicted in the current study reduced air pollution mortality in California by 6.2 %, avoiding 880 (560–1100) premature deaths per year for the conditions in 2030. The monetary benefit from this avoided mortality was estimated at $5.4B/yr with a weighted average benefit per tonne of $35 k/tonne ($23 k/tonne–$45 k/tonne) of PM, NO_x, SO_x, and NH₃ emissions reduction.     

Experimental study of the aragonite to calcite transition in aqueous solution

The experimental replacement of aragonite by calcite was studied under hydrothermal conditions at temperatures between 160 and 200 °C using single inorganic aragonite crystals as a starting material. The initial saturation state and the total [Ca²⁺]:[CO₃²⁻] ratio of the experimental solutions was found to have a determining effect on the amount and abundance of calcite overgrowths as well as the extent of replacement observed within the crystals. The replacement process was accompanied by progressive formation of cracks and pores within the calcite, which led to extended fracturing of the initial aragonite. The overall shape and morphology of the parent aragonite crystal were preserved. The replaced regions were identified with scanning electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy.Experiments using carbonate solutions prepared with water enriched in ¹⁸O (97%) were also performed in order to trace the course of this replacement process. The incorporation of the heavier oxygen isotope in the carbonate molecule within the calcite replacements was monitored with Raman spectroscopy. The heterogeneous distribution of ¹⁸O in the reaction products required a separate study of the kinetics of isotopic equilibration within the fluid to obtain a better understanding of the ¹⁸O distribution in the calcite replacement. An activation energy of 109 kJ/mol was calculated for the exchange of oxygen isotopes between [C¹⁶O₃²⁻]_aq and [H₂¹⁸O] and the time for oxygen isotope exchange in the fluid at 200 °C was estimated at ∼0.9 s. Given the exchange rate, analyses of the run products imply that the oxygen isotope composition in the calcite product is partly inherited from the oxygen isotope composition of the aragonite parent during the replacement process and is dependent on access of the fluid to the reaction interface rather than equilibration time. The aragonite to calcite fluid-mediated transformation is described by a coupled dissolution-reprecipitation mechanism, where aragonite dissolution is coupled to the precipitation of calcite at an inwardly moving reaction interface.     

Effects of photoirradiation on the adsorption of dissolved organic matter to goethite

The effects of photoirradiation of dissolved organic matter (DOM) on its subsequent adsorption to the Fe(III)oxyhydroxide mineral goethite were investigated at 22°C in 0.10 mol L⁻¹ NaClO₄ solutions at pH 3.5 and 5.5, Photoirradiation of DOM decreased the abundance of high molecular-weight components and formed new lower molecular-weight components, including low molecular weight carboxylic acids (i.e., formic, malonic, and acetic acids). Adsorption of non-irradiated DOM decreased from pH 3.5 to 5.5 and was dominated by the intermediate molecular weight (1251-3750 Da) fraction, although the 451-1250 and 3751-11350 Da fractions also contributed to adsorption at pH 3.5. Irradiation resulted in a substantial decrease in DOM adsorption affinity at pH 3.5, primarily due to loss of components in the 1251-3750 and 3751-11350 Da fractions. Irradiation resulted in only a small decrease in DOM adsorption affinity at pH 5.5; the loss of components in the 3751-11350 Da fraction upon irradiation had little effect on adsorption because they played little or no role in the non-irradiated sample at this pH. Irradiation of DOM also affected its interactions with Fe in solution and the solution iron(II)/iron(III) speciation. The combined effects of irradiation followed by adsorption produced DOM that was lower in molecular weight and had a decreased UV-Vis absorptivity than either process, alone. Together, these two processes are likely to have important environmental consequences in terms of UV penetration of surface waters, contaminant mobility, and DOM bioavailability.     

Middle Pleistocene environments,landscapes and tephrostratigraphy of the Armenian Highlands: evidence from Bird Farm 1, Hrazdan Valley

The significance of the southern Caucasus in understanding Pleistocene hominin expansions is well established. However, the palaeoenvironments in which Palaeolithic occupation of the region took place are presently poorly defined. The Hrazdan river valley, Armenian Highlands, contains a rich Palaeolithic record alongside Middle Pleistocene volcanic, fluvial and lacustrine strata, and thus offer exciting potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. We present the first results of sedimentological, geochemical, tephrostratigraphical and biological (diatoms) study of the sequence of Bird Farm 1, located in the central part of the valley. These data show six phases of landscape development during the interval 440–200 ka. The sequence represents the first quantitative Pleistocene diatom record from the Armenian Highlands and the southern Caucasus, and indicates the persistence of a deep, stratified lacustrine system, with evidence for changing lake productivity that is tentatively linked to climate. Furthermore, major element chemical characterization of visible and crypto-tephra horizons in the sequence enables the first stages of the development of a regional tephrostratigraphy. Together, the evidence from Bird Farm 1 demonstrates the importance of lacustrine archives in the region for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and highlights the potential for linkages between archives on both a local and regional scale.