Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation?

The ability to directly remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere allows the decoupling of emissions and emissions control in space and time. We ask the question whether this unique feature of carbon dioxide removal technologies fundamentally alters the dynamics of climate mitigation pathways. The analysis is performed in the coupled energy-economy-climate model ReMIND using the bioenergy with CCS route as an application of CDR technology. BECCS is arguably the least cost CDR option if biomass availability is not a strongly limiting factor. We compare mitigation pathways with and without BECCS to explore the impact of CDR technologies on the mitigation portfolio. Effects are most pronounced for stringent climate policies where BECCS is a key technology for the effectiveness of carbon pricing policies. The decoupling of emissions and emissions control allows prolonging the use of fossil fuels in sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. It also balances the distribution of mitigation costs across future generations. CDR is not a silver bullet technology. The largest part of emissions reductions continues to be provided by direct mitigation measures at the emissions source. The value of CDR lies in its flexibility to alleviate the most costly constraints on mitigating emissions.     

PM2.5 co-benefits of climate change legislation part 1: California’s AB 32

The Scoping Plan for compliance with California Assembly Bill 32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; AB 32) proposes a substantial reduction in 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from all economic sectors through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other technological measures. Most of the AB 32 Scoping Plan measures will simultaneously reduce emissions of traditional criteria pollutants along with GHGs leading to a co-benefit of improved air quality in California. The present study quantifies the airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5) co-benefits of AB 32 by comparing future air quality under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario (without AB 32) to AB 32 implementation by sector. AB 32 measures were divided into five levels defined by sector as follows: 1) industrial sources, 2) electric utility and natural gas sources, 3) agricultural sources, 4) on-road mobile sources and 5) other mobile sources. Air quality throughout California was simulated using the UCD source-oriented air quality model during 12 days of severe air pollution and over 108 days of typical meteorology representing an annual average period in the year 2030 (10 years after the AB 32 adoption deadline). The net effect of all AB 32 measures reduced statewide primary PM and NO_x emissions by ~1 % and ~15 %, respectively. Air quality simulations predict that these emissions reductions lower population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations by ~6 % for California. The South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) experienced the greatest reductions in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 transportation measures while the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) experiences the smallest reductions or even slight increases in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 measures that called for increased use of dairy biogas for electricity generation. The ~6 % reduction in PM_2.5 exposure associated with AB 32 predicted in the current study reduced air pollution mortality in California by 6.2 %, avoiding 880 (560–1100) premature deaths per year for the conditions in 2030. The monetary benefit from this avoided mortality was estimated at $5.4B/yr with a weighted average benefit per tonne of $35 k/tonne ($23 k/tonne–$45 k/tonne) of PM, NO_x, SO_x, and NH₃ emissions reduction.     

Atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms of extratropical North Atlantic SST influence on Sahel rainfall

Extratropical North Atlantic cooling has been tied to droughts over the Sahel in both paleoclimate observations and modeling studies. This study, which uses an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a slab ocean model that simulates this connection, explores the hypothesis that the extratropical North Atlantic cooling causes the Sahel droughts via an atmospheric teleconnection mediated by tropospheric cooling. The drying is also produced in a regional climate model simulation of the Sahel when reductions in air temperature (and associated geopotential height and humidity changes) from the GCM simulation are imposed as the lateral boundary conditions. This latter simulation explicitly demonstrates the central role of tropospheric cooling in mediating the atmospheric teleconnection from extratropical North Atlantic cooling. Diagnostic analyses are applied to the GCM simulation to infer teleconnection mechanisms. An analysis of top of atmosphere radiative flux changes diagnosed with a radiative kernel technique shows that extratropical North Atlantic cooling is augmented by a positive low cloud feedback and advected downstream, cooling Europe and North Africa. The cooling over North Africa is further amplified by a reduced greenhouse effect from decreased atmospheric specific humidity. A moisture budget analysis shows that the direct moisture effect and monsoon weakening, both tied to the ambient cooling and resulting circulation changes, and feedbacks by vertical circulation and evaporation augment the rainfall reduction. Cooling over the Tropical North Atlantic in response to the prescribed extratropical cooling also augments the Sahel drying. Taken together, they suggest a thermodynamic pathway for the teleconnection. The teleconnection may also be applicable to understanding the North Atlantic influence on Sahel rainfall over the twentieth century.     

On the relationship between vegetation and climate in tropical and northern Africa

Vegetation cover is a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system but, still, our understanding of the mechanisms governing the reciprocal influence between atmosphere and vegetation is limited. In this study, we investigate the unilateral atmospheric impact on vegetation cover in tropical and northern Africa, differentiated into regions with different circulation regimes and into detailed land-cover classes. In contrast to former studies, climate predictors from a regional climate model are used as input for a multiple regression model. Climate models provide consistent data without gaps at high spatial resolution, a considerably larger set of available climate variables and the perspective to transfer the statistical relationships to future projections, e.g., in the context of anthropogenic climate change. Indeed, robust climate predictors which drive up to 70 % of observed interannual vegetation variability could be extracted from the climate model. Besides precipitation and temperature, global radiation, and relative humidity play an important role. The statistical transfer functions are plausible in terms of the affected regions and land-cover classes and draw a rather complex picture of the atmosphere–vegetation relation in Africa.     

An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to ?90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to ?8?K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon—which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem.     

Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review

The response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming, one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m^?2 K^?1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.     

Impact of Heterogeneity on Oxygen Transfer in a Fluctuating Capillary Fringe

We performed quasi‐two‐dimensional flow through laboratory experiments to study the effect of a coarse‐material inclusion, located in the proximity of the water table, on flow and oxygen transfer in the capillary fringe. The experiments investigate different phases of mass transfer from the unsaturated zone to anoxic groundwater under both steady‐state and transient flow conditions, the latter obtained by fluctuating the water table. Monitoring of flow and transport in the different experimental phases was performed by visual inspection of the complex flow field using a dye tracer solution, measurement of oxygen profiles across the capillary fringe, and determination of oxygen fluxes in the effluent of the flow‐through chamber. Our results show significant effects of the coarse‐material inclusion on oxygen transfer during the different phases of the experiments. At steady state, the oxygen flux across the unsaturated/saturated interface was considerably enhanced due to flow focusing in the fully water‐saturated coarse‐material inclusion. During drainage, a zone of higher water saturation formed in the fine material overlying the coarse lens. The entrapped oxygen‐rich aqueous phase contributed to the total amount of oxygen supplied to the system when the water table was raised back to its initial level. In case of imbibition, pronounced air entrapment occurred in the coarse lens, causing oxygen to partition between the aqueous and gaseous phases. The oxygen mass supplied to the anoxic groundwater following the imbibition event was found to be remarkably higher (approximately seven times) in the heterogeneous system compared with a similar experiment performed in a homogeneous porous medium.     

Reducing monitoring gaps at the aquifer–river interface by modelling groundwater–surface water exchange flow patterns

This study investigates spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of aquifer–river exchange flow at a reach of the River Leith, UK. Observations of sub‐channel vertical hydraulic gradients at the field site indicate the dominance of groundwater up‐welling into the river and the absence of groundwater recharge from surface water. However, observed hydraulic heads do not provide information on potential surface water infiltration into the top 0–15 cm of the streambed as these depths are not covered by the existing experimental infrastructure. In order to evaluate whether surface water infiltration is likely to occur outside the ‘window of detection’, i.e. the shallow streambed, a numerical groundwater model is used to simulate hydrological exchanges between the aquifer and the river. Transient simulations of the successfully validated model (Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of 0·91) suggest that surface water infiltration is marginal and that the possibility of significant volumes of surface water infiltrating into non‐monitored shallow streambed sediments can be excluded for the simulation period. Furthermore, the simulation results show that with increasing head differences between river and aquifer towards the end of the simulation period, the impact of streambed topography and hydraulic conductivity on spatial patterns of exchange flow rates decreases. A set of peak flow scenarios with altered groundwater‐surface water head gradients is simulated in order to quantify the potential for surface water infiltration during characteristic winter flow conditions following the observation period. The results indicate that, particularly at the beginning of peak flow conditions, head gradients are likely to cause substantial increase in surface water infiltration into the streambed. The study highlights the potential for the improvement of process understanding of hyporheic exchange flow patterns at the stream reach scale by simulating aquifer‐river exchange fluxes with a standard numerical groundwater model and a simple but robust model structure and parameterization. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cryogenic Core Collection and Preservation of Subsurface Samples for Biomolecular Analysis

A cryogenic coring system for the collection and preservation of biomolecules in unconsolidated subsurface solid samples is presented here. The sampler is based on existing direct‐push coring technology, with the addition of a cryogenic step to freeze the sample in situ. Once brought to the surface, the frozen cores can be packed in dry ice and shipped to the laboratory for further processing and analysis. The approach prevents redistribution of fluids during sample recovery and shipping, and because the cores are frozen in situ there is little loss of solid material during retrieval to ground surface. To evaluate the performance of the approach, DNA analyses of samples collected by cryogenic coring in a very large physical model are compared with results from water samples and horizontal core samples taken in close proximity. The data indicate that the vertical distribution of DNA within the cryogenic core can be measured at the centimeter scale, providing unprecedented characterization of subsurface biogeochemical interfaces.     

Reconstruction of the upper ocean 3D dynamics from high-resolution sea surface height

The present study investigates the reconstruction of the 3D dynamics of a turbulent mesoscale eddy field driven at a depth by a baroclinic instability of the Phillips type. It uses a high-resolution primitive equation simulation as a testbed. The method of reconstruction is based on potential vorticity principles and extends an earlier approach (Lapeyre and Klein, J Phys Oceanogr 36:165–176, 2006) to a regime where the signature of surface density anomalies on the dynamics is weak. The crux and the originality of the reconstruction lie in the estimation from sea surface height and surface density anomalies of the interior quasigeostrophic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies and its subsequent inversion. The estimation of PV anomalies relies on the vertical correlation between PV anomalies and on the knowledge on stratification and horizontal gradients of background PV. PV anomalies are accurately estimated over the first 500 m of the water column and over a wide range of wavenumbers. Density anomalies play a minor role in the PV estimation, though their omission leads to an overestimation of PV by a factor of less than 2 at scales of order 20 km and less. Inversion of the estimated PV leads to a geostrophic streamfunction which in turn provides reliable reconstructions of the relative vorticity and vertical velocity (via the omega equation).