Linking tracers,water age and conceptual models to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment

Assessing catchment runoff response remains a key research frontier because of limitations in current observational techniques to fully characterize water source areas and transit times in diverse geographical environments. Here, we report a study that combines empirical data with modelling to identify dominant runoff processes in a sparsely monitored humid tropical catchment. The analysis integrated isotope tracers into conceptual rainfall–runoff models of varying complexity (from 5 to 11 calibrated parameters) that are able to simulate discharge and tracer concentrations and track the evolving age of stream water exiting the catchment. The model structures can be seen as competing hypotheses of catchment functioning and were simultaneously calibrated against uncertain streamflow gaugings and a 2‐year daily isotope rainfall–runoff record. Comparison of the models was facilitated using global parameter sensitivity analysis and the resulting effect on calibration. We show that a variety of tested model structures reproduced water and tracer dynamics in stream, but the simpler models failed to adequately reproduce both. The resulting water age distributions of the tested models varied significantly with little similarity between the stream water age and stored water age distributions. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only some of the more complex models (from eight parameters) could be better constrained to infer more plausible water age distributions and catchment storage estimates. These models indicated that the age of water stored in the catchment is generally older compared with the age of water fluxes, with evapotranspiration age being younger compared with streamflow. However, the water age distributions followed a similar temporal behaviour dominated by climatic seasonality. Stream water ages increased during the dry season (greater than 1 year) and decreased with increased streamflow (a few weeks old) during the wet season. We further show that the ratios of the streamwater age to stored water age distribution and the water age distribution of actual evapotranspiration to the stored water age distribution from constrained models could potentially serve as useful hydrological indicators of catchment functioning. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mauer – the type site of Homo heidelbergensis: palaeoenvironment and age

The mandible of Homo heidelbergensis was found 1907 in the sand pit Grafenrain at Mauer in coarse fluvial sands 24 m below the surface, deposited in a former course of the Neckar River. These ‘Mauer sands’ are overlain by a series of glacial-climate loess deposits with intercalated interglacial palaeosols, which can be correlated with Quaternary climate history, thus indicating an early Middle Pleistocene age for H. heidelbergensis. The ‘Mauer sands’ are famous for their rather rich mammal fauna, which clearly indicates interglacial climate conditions. The faunal evidence – in particular the micromammals – place the ‘Mauer sands’ into MIS 15 or MIS 13 although most stratigraphic arguments favour correlation to MIS 15 and therefore to an age of ca 600 ka.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

Free allocation in the 3rd EU ETS period: assessing two manufacturing sectors

This article provides an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the harmonized benchmark-based allocation procedures by comparing two energy-intensive sectors with activities in three Member States. These sectors include the cement industry (CEI) and the pulp and paper industry (PPI) in the UK, Sweden, and France. Our results show that the new procedures are better suited for the more homogeneous CEI, in which the outcome of stricter allocation of emissions allowances is consistent between Member States. For the more heterogeneous PPI – in terms of its product portfolios, technical infrastructures, and fuel mixes – the allocation procedures lead to diverse outcomes. It is the lack of product benchmark curves, and the alternative use of benchmark values that are biased towards a fossil fuel-mix and are based on specific energy use rather than emission intensity, which leads to allocations to the PPI that do not represent the average performance of the top 10% of GHG-efficient installations. Another matter is that grandfathering is still present via the historically based production volumes. How to deal with structural change and provisions regarding capacity reductions and partial cessation is an issue that is highly relevant for the PPI but less so for the CEI.

Policy relevance

After an unprecedented amount of consultation with industrial associations and other stakeholders, a harmonized benchmark-based allocation methodology was introduced in the third trading period of the EU ETS. Establishing a reliable and robust benchmark methodology for free allocation that shields against high direct carbon costs, is perceived as fair and politically acceptable, and still incentivizes firms to take action, is a significant challenge. This article contributes to a deeper understanding of the challenges in effectively applying harmonized rules in industrial sectors that are heterogeneous. This is essential for the debate on structural reformation of the EU ETS, and for sharing experiences with other emerging emissions trading systems in the world that also consider benchmark methodologies.