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921.
Three radial audiomagnetotelluric (AMT) sounding profiles were carried out across the narrow, 65-km diameter troctolitic Meugueur-Meugueur ring structure, central Aïr, Niger, to study its electrical configuration; one profile extended across the bedrock into the large Ofoud complex situated slightly off geographical centre within the ring. Apparent resistivity data from 27 sites ranged from isotropic to strongly anisotropic. In nearly all soundings, one- and two-dimensional modelling indicated the presence of a major zone of low resistivity (60–600 Ωm), about 200 m thick, dipping steeply inwards at an angle of 65–80° and extending to a depth of at least 2–5 km. This layer, overlain and underlain by rocks of higher resistivities in excess of 5000 Ωm, is taken to be the outer contact. A highly resistive body, about 200 m in width, dipping inwards to a depth of at least 4 km is taken to be the Meugueur-Meugueur intrusion, which is thus interpreted to be a cone sheet.  相似文献   
922.
    
In this study, uncertainty in model input data (precipitation) and parameters is propagated through a physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE code. Precipitation uncertainty is accounted for using an ensemble of daily rainfall fields that incorporate four different sources of uncertainty, whereas parameter uncertainty is considered using Latin hypercube sampling. Model predictive uncertainty is assessed for multiple simulated hydrological variables (discharge, groundwater head, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture). Utilizing an extensive set of observational data, effective observational uncertainties for each hydrological variable are assessed. Considering not only model predictive uncertainty but also effective observational uncertainty leads to a notable increase in the number of instances, for which model simulation and observations are in good agreement (e.g., 47% vs. 91% for discharge and 0% vs. 98% for soil moisture). Effective observational uncertainty is in several cases larger than model predictive uncertainty. We conclude that the use of precipitation uncertainty with a realistic spatio‐temporal correlation structure, analyses of multiple variables with different spatial support, and the consideration of observational uncertainty are crucial for adequately evaluating the performance of physically based, spatially distributed hydrological models.  相似文献   
923.
    
This paper deals with the generation of seismic accelerograms which are compatible with a given response spectrum and other design specifications. The time sampling of the stochastic accelerogram yields a time series represented by a random vector in high dimension. The probability density function of this random vector is constructed using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle under constraints defined by the available information (design specifications). In this paper, an adapted algorithm is proposed to identify the Lagrange multipliers introduced in the MaxEnt principle to take into account the constraints. This algorithm is based on (1) the minimization of an appropriate convex functional and (2) the construction of the probability distribution defined as the invariant measure of an Itô stochastic differential equation in order to estimate the integrals in high dimension of the problem. The constraints related to a seismic accelerogram are developed explicitly. This methodology is validated through an application for which the available information is related to the variance of each component of the random vector representing the accelerogram, statistics on the response spectrum, on the peak ground acceleration, on the cumulative absolute velocity and on the end-values for the velocity and for the displacement.  相似文献   
924.
Permeability exerts significant control over the development of pore pressure excess in the crust, and it is a physical quantity sensitively dependent on the pore structure and stress state. In many applications, the relation between permeability and effective mean stress is assumed to be exponential and that between permeability and porosity is assumed to be a power law, so that the pressure sensitivity of permeability is characterized by the coefficient and the porosity sensitivity by the exponent . In this study, we investigate experimentally the dependence of permeability on pressure and porosity in five sandstones with porosities ranging from 14% to 35% and we review published experimental data on intact rocks, unconsolidated materials and rock fractures. The laboratory data show that the pressure and porosity sensitivities differ significantly for different compaction mechanisms, but for a given compaction mechanism, the data can often be approximated by the empirical relations. The permeabilities of tight rocks and rock joints show relatively high pressure sensitivity and low porosity sensitivity. A wide range of values for and have been observed in relation to the mechanical compaction of porous rocks, sand and fault gouge, whereas the porosity sensitivity for chemical compaction processes is often observed to be given by 3. We show that since the ratio / corresponds to the pore compressibility, the different dependences of permeability on porosity and pressure are related to the pore structure and its compressibility. Guided by the laboratory data, we conduct numerical simulations on the development of pore pressure in crustal tectonic settings according to the models ofWalder andNur (1984) andRice (1992). Laboratory data suggest that the pressure sensitivity of fault gouge is relatively low, and to maintain pore pressure at close to the lithostatic value in the Rice model, a relatively high influx of fluid from below the seismogenic layer is necessary. The fluid may be injected as vertically propagating pressure pulses into the seismogenic system, andRice's (1992) critical condition for the existence of solitary wave is shown to be equivalent to >1, which is satisfied by most geologic materials in the laboratory. Laboratory data suggest that the porosity sensitivity is relatively high when the permeability is reduced by a coupled mechanical and chemical compaction process. This implies that in a crustal layer, pore pressure may be generated more efficiently than cases studied byWalder andNur (1984) who assumed a relatively low porosity sensitivity of =2.  相似文献   
925.
926.
    
The seismic behaviour of a wide variety of structures can be characterized by the rocking response of rigid blocks. Nevertheless, suitable seismic control strategies are presently limited and consist mostly on preventing rocking motion all together, which may induce undesirable stress concentrations and lead to impractical interventions. In this paper, we investigate the potential advantages of using supplemental rotational inertia to mitigate the effects of earthquakes on rocking structures. The newly proposed strategy employs inerters, which are mechanical devices that develop resisting forces proportional to the relative acceleration between their terminals and can be combined with a clutch to ensure their rotational inertia is only employed to oppose the motion. We demonstrate that the inclusion of the inerter effectively reduces the frequency parameter of the block, resulting in lower rotation seismic demands and enhanced stability due to the well-known size effects of the rocking behaviour. The effects of the inerter and inerter-clutch devices on the response scaling and similarity are also studied. An examination of their overturning fragility functions reveals that inerter-equipped structures experience reduced probabilities of overturning in comparison with uncontrolled bodies, while the addition of a clutch further improves their seismic stability. The concept advanced in this paper is particularly attractive for the protection of rocking bodies as it opens the possibility of nonlocally modifying the dynamic response of rocking structures without altering their geometry.  相似文献   
927.
Groundwater modeling is undergoing a change from traditional stand-alone studies toward being an integrated part of holistic water resources management procedures. This is illustrated by the development in Denmark, where comprehensive national databases for geologic borehole data, groundwater-related geophysical data, geologic models, as well as a national groundwater-surface water model have been established and integrated to support water management. This has enhanced the benefits of using groundwater models. Based on insight gained from this Danish experience, a scientifically realistic scenario for the use of groundwater modeling in 2020 has been developed, in which groundwater models will be a part of sophisticated databases and modeling systems. The databases and numerical models will be seamlessly integrated, and the tasks of monitoring and modeling will be merged. Numerical models for atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater processes will be coupled in one integrated modeling system that can operate at a wide range of spatial scales. Furthermore, the management systems will be constructed with a focus on building credibility of model and data use among all stakeholders and on facilitating a learning process whereby data and models, as well as stakeholders' understanding of the system, are updated to currently available information. The key scientific challenges for achieving this are (1) developing new methodologies for integration of statistical and qualitative uncertainty; (2) mapping geological heterogeneity and developing scaling methodologies; (3) developing coupled model codes; and (4) developing integrated information systems, including quality assurance and uncertainty information that facilitate active stakeholder involvement and learning.  相似文献   
928.
    
Various abiotic and biotic factors determine the natural fluctuations of Daphnia spec. populations; food quality and dissolved humic substances (HSs) being among these factors. In this contribution, we try to disentangle the relative impact of food quality and simultaneous HSs exposure on the fertility and longevity of D. magna. It is understood that HS-mediated stress leads to reduced fecundity in well-fed D. magna females; hence, it was expected that poor food, as a second stressor, would aggravate the HS-mediated effects. Three diets were tested: the green algae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, baker’s yeast alone, and baker’s yeast plus dissolved ascorbic acid, and exposed D. magna to a HS preparation which has been shown effective in previous bioassays. It was hypothesized that the lifespan and fertility of D. magna would be best when fed green algae, and worst when fed only baker’s yeast. However, contrary to these expectations, any addition of HSs reduced the stress caused by poor food quality and increased lifespan and fecundity. In the yeast series, asexually produced diapausing eggs occurred via a so far unknown pathway. With yeast diet, the expanded lifespans were slightly above, whereas the increased offspring numbers lay below, the corresponding data of the algae-fed individuals. The potential of HSs as an additional food source and as a means to extend the lifespan is discussed. These findings open the innovative perspective that under low quality food conditions, additional stressors at certain intensities may even be beneficial to individuals and populations.  相似文献   
929.
    
Christian Onof 《水文研究》2013,27(11):1600-1614
Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
930.
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