Point process models for fine-resolution rainfall

Abstract

In a recent development in the literature, a new temporal rainfall model, based on the Bartlett-Lewis clustering mechanism and intended for sub-hourly application, was introduced. That model replaced the rectangular rain cells of the original model with finite Poisson processes of instantaneous pulses, allowing greater variability in rainfall intensity over short intervals. In the present paper, the basic instantaneous pulse model is first extended to allow for randomly varying storm types. A systematic comparison of a number of key model variants, fitted to 5-min rainfall data from Germany, then generates further new insights into the models, leading to the development of an additional model extension, which introduces dependence between rainfall intensity and duration in a simple way. The new model retains the original rectangular cells, previously assumed inappropriate for fine-scale data, obviating the need for the computationally more intensive instantaneous pulse model.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Texture and anisotropy analysis of Qusaiba shales

Scanning and transmission electron microscopy, synchrotron X‐ray diffraction, microtomography and ultrasonic velocity measurements were used to characterize microstructures and anisotropy of three deeply buried Qusaiba shales from the Rub’al‐Khali basin, Saudi Arabia. Kaolinite, illite‐smectite, illite‐mica and chlorite show strong preferred orientation with (001) pole figure maxima perpendicular to the bedding plane ranging from 2.4–6.8 multiples of a random distribution (m.r.d.). Quartz, feldspars and pyrite crystals have a random orientation distribution. Elastic properties of the polyphase aggregate are calculated by averaging the single crystal elastic properties over the orientation distribution, assuming a nonporous material. The average calculated bulk P‐wave velocities are 6.2 km/s (maximum) and 5.5 km/s (minimum), resulting in a P‐wave anisotropy of 12%. The calculated velocities are compared with those determined from ultrasonic velocity measurements on a similar sample. In the ultrasonic experiment, which measures the effects of the shale matrix as well as the effects of porosity, velocities are smaller (P‐wave maximum 5.3 km/s and minimum 4.1 km/s). The difference between calculated and measured velocities is attributed to the effects of anisotropic pore structure and to microfractures present in the sample, which have not been taken into account in the matrix averaging.     

Ecotoxicological effects of a semi-submerged municipal dump (Castle harbour, Bermuda) on the Calico scallop Argopecten gibbus

A biomarker study was undertaken using the Calico scallop Argopecten gibbus to assess the ecotoxicological effects of a semi-submerged municipal dump on the adjacent patch reef lagoon ecosystem (Castle harbour, Bermuda). Caged scallops were deployed in situ for 2 months at various distances from the dump (50 m, 900 m and 2.7 km) and at a reference site (14 km). A suite of biomarkers comprising metallothionein (MT), lipid peroxidation (LPO), vitellin-like proteins (Vn), glutathione S-transferase (GST), DNA strand breaks and condition factor (CF) were investigated in various tissues of the scallop (gill, digestive gland and gonad). Levels of heavy metals were also measured in the whole scallop soft tissue. While there was some variation in response between tissues, in general the results indicated that the dump was negatively impacting scallops deployed in the adjacent marine environment: elevated levels of MT, DNA strand breaks, Vn and GST and reduced condition factor were found for scallops deployed nearest to the dump and at the site 1.5 km from this point source of contamination (Tuckers town) in Castle harbour, with respect to the reference site, North Rock (although this exhibited some degree of metal contamination). The gills from scallops deployed at the dump site were the most responsive tissue, with the highest expression of MT, LPO and DNA damage. This study indicates the potential of the Calico scallop as a convenient bioindicator species in the marine tropical benthos.     

Ultrasonic velocities of North Sea chalk samples: influence of porosity, fluid content and texture

We have studied 56 unfractured chalk samples of the Upper Cretaceous Tor Formation of the Dan, South Arne and Gorm Fields, Danish North Sea. The samples have porosities of between 14% and 45% and calcite content of over 95%. The ultrasonic compressional‐ and shear‐wave velocities (V_P and V_S) for dry and water‐saturated samples were measured at up to 75 bar confining hydrostatic pressure corresponding to effective stress in the reservoir. The porosity is the main control of the ultrasonic velocities and therefore of the elastic moduli. The elastic moduli are slightly higher for samples from the South Arne Field than from the Dan Field for identical porosities. This difference may be due to textural differences between the chalk at the two locations because we observe that large grains (i.e. filled microfossils and fossil fragments) that occur more frequently in samples from the Dan Field have a porosity‐reducing effect and that samples rich in large grains have a relatively low porosity for a given P‐wave modulus. The clay content in the samples is low and is mainly represented by either kaolinite or smectite; samples with smectite have a lower P‐wave modulus than samples with kaolinite at equal porosity. We find that ultrasonic V_P and V_S of dry chalk samples can be satisfactorily estimated with Gassmann's relationships from data for water‐saturated samples. A pronounced difference between the V_P/V_S ratios for dry and water‐saturated chalk samples indicates promising results for seismic amplitude‐versus‐offset analyses.     

Definition of Physical Height Systems for Telluric Planets and Moons

In planetary sciences, the geodetic (geometric) heights defined with respect to the reference surface (the sphere or the ellipsoid) or with respect to the center of the planet/moon are typically used for mapping topographic surface, compilation of global topographic models, detailed mapping of potential landing sites, and other space science and engineering purposes. Nevertheless, certain applications, such as studies of gravity-driven mass movements, require the physical heights to be defined with respect to the equipotential surface. Taking the analogy with terrestrial height systems, the realization of height systems for telluric planets and moons could be done by means of defining the orthometric and geoidal heights. In this case, however, the definition of the orthometric heights in principle differs. Whereas the terrestrial geoid is described as an equipotential surface that best approximates the mean sea level, such a definition for planets/moons is irrelevant in the absence of (liquid) global oceans. A more natural choice for planets and moons is to adopt the geoidal equipotential surface that closely approximates the geometric reference surface (the sphere or the ellipsoid). In this study, we address these aspects by proposing a more accurate approach for defining the orthometric heights for telluric planets and moons from available topographic and gravity models, while adopting the average crustal density in the absence of reliable crustal density models. In particular, we discuss a proper treatment of topographic masses in the context of gravimetric geoid determination. In numerical studies, we investigate differences between the geodetic and orthometric heights, represented by the geoidal heights, on Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Moon. Our results reveal that these differences are significant. The geoidal heights on Mercury vary from ? 132 to 166 m. On Venus, the geoidal heights are between ? 51 and 137 m with maxima on this planet at Atla Regio and Beta Regio. The largest geoid undulations between ? 747 and 1685 m were found on Mars, with the extreme positive geoidal heights under Olympus Mons in Tharsis region. Large variations in the geoidal geometry are also confirmed on the Moon, with the geoidal heights ranging from ? 298 to 461 m. For comparison, the terrestrial geoid undulations are mostly within ± 100 m. We also demonstrate that a commonly used method for computing the geoidal heights that disregards the differences between the gravity field outside and inside topographic masses yields relatively large errors. According to our estimates, these errors are ? 0.3/+ 3.4 m for Mercury, 0.0/+ 13.3 m for Venus, ? 1.4/+ 125.6 m for Mars, and ? 5.6/+ 45.2 m for the Moon.     

Experiences with the use of mass-density maps in residual gravity forward modelling

In many modern local and regional gravity field modelling concepts, the short-wavelength gravitational signal modeled by the residual terrain modelling (RTM) technique is used to augment global geopotential models, or to smooth observed gravity prior to data gridding. In practice, the evaluation of RTM effects mostly relies on a constant density assumption, because of the difficulty and complexity of obtaining information on the actual distribution of density of topographic masses. Where the actual density of topographic masses deviates from the adopted value, errors are present in the RTM mass-model, and hence, in the forward-modelled residual gravity field. In this paper we attempt to overcome this problem by combining the RTM technique with a high-resolution mass-density model. We compute RTM gravity quantities over New Zealand, with different combinations of elevation models and mass-density assumptions using gravity and GPS/levelling measurements, precise terrain and bathymetry models, a high-resolution mass-density model and constant density assumptions as main input databases. Based on gravity observations and the RTM technique, optimum densities are detected for North Island of ~2500 kg m^?3, South Island of ~2600 kg m^?3, and the whole New Zealand of ~2590 kg m^?3. Comparison among the three sets of residual gravity disturbances computed from different mass-density assumptions show that, together with a global potential model, the high-resolution New Zealand density model explains ~89.5% of gravitational signals, a constant density assumption of 2670 kg m^?3 explains ~90.2%, while a regionally optimum mass-density explains ~90.3%. Detailed comparison shows that the New Zealand density model works best over areas with small residual heights. Over areas with larger residual heights, subsurface density variations appear to affect the residual gravity disturbance. This effect is found to reach about 30 mGal over Southern Alpine Fault. In order to improve the RTM modelling with mass-density maps, a higher-quality mass-density model that provides radially varying mass-density data would be desirable.     

Forests and water in South America

South America is experiencing rapid change in forest cover, of both native and planted forest. Forest cover loss is primarily attributable to fire, logging, and conversion of native forest to agriculture, pasture, and forest plantations, and types of change vary within and among the many diverse types of forests in South America. Major changes in forest cover and growing policy concerns underscore an urgent need for research on sustainable forest management and water ecosystem services in South America. Differences in land ownership and management objectives create trade‐offs between wood production and water ecosystem services from forests. Work is needed to quantify how forest change and management affect ecosystem services, such as wood production versus water provision. Current scientific understanding of forest management effects on water ecosystem services in South America has important limitations, including a scarcity of long‐term records and few long‐term integrated watershed studies. Industry, government, universities, and local communities should collaborate on integrated applied studies of forests and water. Data archiving and publically available data are required. The creation of national networks and a multi‐country South America network to identify and implement common water research protocols, share results, and explore their implications would promote common and well‐supported policies. Hydrologists working in South America are well placed to tackle the challenges and opportunities for collaborative research that will maintain the intrinsic values and water ecosystem services provided by South America's forests.     

The location of infinite electrodes in pole–pole electrical surveys: consequences for 2D imaging

In 2D-multielectrode electrical surveys using the pole–pole array, the distance to ‘infinite electrodes' is actually finite. As a matter of fact, the available cable length generally imposes a poor approximation of theoretical location of these electrodes at infinity. This study shows that in most of the cases, the resulting apparent resistivity pseudosection is strongly distorted. Numerical simulation validated by field test also shows that a particular finite array provides results that are as close as possible to the ones of the ideal pole–pole array. This is achieved when two conditions that are weaker than an infinite location are fulfilled: (i) the ‘infinite electrodes' are placed symmetrically on both sides of the in-line electrodes with a spread angle of 30° and (ii) the length of ‘infinite lines' is at least 20 times the greatest distance between in-line electrodes. The electrical 2D image obtained with this enhanced array is the least distorted one with respect to the pole–pole image. The apparent resistivities are generally underestimated, but this deviation is almost homogeneous. Though the shift cannot be determined a priori, the interpretation of such an image with direct or inverse software designed for pole–pole data provides an accurate interpretation of the ground geometry.     

Isotope hydrology and water sources in a heavily urbanized stream

Complex networks of both natural and engineered flow paths control the hydrology of streams in major cities through spatio-temporal variations in connection and disconnection of diverse water sources. We used spatially extensive and temporally intensive sampling of water stable isotopes to disentangle the hydrological sources of the heavily urbanized Panke catchment (~220 km²) in the north of Berlin, Germany. The isotopic data enabled us to partition stream water sources across the catchment using a Bayesian mixing analysis. The upper part of the catchment streamflow is dominated by groundwater (~75%) from gravel aquifers. In dry summer periods, streamflow becomes intermittent in the upper catchment, possibly as a result of local groundwater abstractions. Storm drainage dominates the responses to precipitation events. Although such events can dramatically change the isotopic composition of the upper stream network, storm drainage only accounts for 10%–15% of annual streamflow. Moving downstream, subtle changes in sources and isotope signatures occur as catchment characteristics vary and the stream is affected by different tributaries. However, effluents from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), serving 700,000 people, dominate stream flow in the lower catchment (~90% of annual runoff) where urbanization effects are more dramatic. The associated increase in sealed surfaces downstream also reduces the relative contribution of groundwater to streamflow. The volume and isotopic composition of storm runoff is again dominated by urban drainage, though in the lower catchment, still only about 10% of annual runoff comes from storm drains. The study shows the potential of stable water isotopes as inexpensive tracers in urban catchments that can provide a more integrated understanding of the complex hydrology of major cities. This offers an important evidence base for guiding the plans to develop and re-develop urban catchments to protect, restore, and enhance their ecological and amenity value.     

The effect of asymmetric dune roughness on tidal asymmetry in the Weser estuary

The bed of estuaries is often characterized by ripples and dunes of varying size. Whereas smaller bedforms adapt their morphological shape to the oscillating tidal currents, large compound dunes (here: asymmetric tidal dunes) remain stable for periods longer than a tidal cycle. Bedforms constitute a form roughness, that is, hydraulic flow resistance, which has a large-scale effect on tidal asymmetry and, hence, on hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphodynamics of estuaries and coastal seas. Flow separation behind the dune crest and recirculation on the steep downstream side result in turbulence and energy loss. Since the energy dissipation can be related to the dune lee slope angle, asymmetric dune shapes induce variable flow resistance during ebb and flood phases. Here, a noncalibrated numerical model has been applied to analyze the large-scale effect of symmetric and asymmetric dune shapes on estuarine tidal asymmetry evaluated by residual bed load sediment transport at the Weser estuary, Germany. Scenario simulations were performed with parameterized bed roughness of symmetric and asymmetric dune shapes and without dune roughness. The spatiotemporal interaction of distinct dune shapes with the main drivers of estuarine sediment and morphodynamics, that is, river discharge and tidal energy, is shown to be complex but substantial. The contrasting effects of flood- and ebb-oriented asymmetric dunes on residual bed load transport rates and directions are estimated to be of a similar importance as the controls of seasonal changes of discharge on these net sediment fluxes at the Lower Weser estuary. This corroborates the need to consider dune-induced directional bed roughness in numerical models of estuarine and tidal environments.