Solar coronal heating by magnetic cancellation – III. Thermodynamics

We present two-dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamics simulations of a coronal X-ray bright point (XBP) caused by a cancelling magnetic feature (CMF). Cancellation is driven by converging motions of two magnetic bipolar sources. These sources are initially disconnected from each other so that both, the CMF and the associated reconnection/heating event (i.e. the XBP), are modelled in a self-consistent way. In the initial state, there is no X-point but two separatrices are present. Hence, the reconnection/heating and the cancellation phases have not yet started. Our numerical experiments end shortly after the converging magnetic bipole has fully cancelled. By this time, reconnection in the inner domain has ceased and occurs only at the base. Solving the energy equation with various heating and cooling terms included, and considering different bottom boundary conditions, reveals that the unrealistically high temperatures produced by Ohmic heating are reduced to more moderate temperatures of 1.5–2 MK consistent with observations of XBPs, if thermal conduction is included and density and temperature are fixed at the base.     

Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases

The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH₄), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH₄, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO₂), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH₄ relative to CO₂. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH₄ is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO₂ in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP₁₀₀ value.     

Baryon loading and the Weibel instability in gamma-ray bursts

The dynamics of two counter-streaming electron–positron–ion unmagnetized plasma shells with zero net charge is analysed in the context of magnetic field generation in gamma-ray burst internal shocks due to the Weibel instability. The effects of large thermal motion of plasma particles, arbitrary mixture of plasma species and space charge effects are taken into account. We show that, although thermal effects slow down the instability, baryon loading leads to a non-negligible growth rate even for large temperatures and different shell velocities, thus guaranteeing the robustness and the occurrence of the Weibel instability for a wide range of scenarios.     

The separation of the influence of nutrients and climate on the varve time-series of baldeggersee, Switzerland

The varve data-set from a freeze-core taken in the deepest part of Baldeggersee was subjected to different multivariate statistical analyses in order to estimate the amount of variance in the varve thickness measures explicable by past climate and by the trophic state of the lake. A comparison of two different time-periods (1902 to1992 versus 1920 to 1980) revealed that the lake restoration programme since 1982 has had a significant impact on the formation of the seasonal layers. Results of the partitioning of the variance in the varve thickness measures showed that about two thirds of the variance are unexplained by a climate and trophic state model and that trophic state explains 6%, whereas climate accounts for about 28% of the variance before the effect of lake restoration had a strong impact on the varves. Among the climate parameters the amount of annual precipitation is a strong predictor for explaining the thickness of both dark layer and total couplet thickness, whereas summer precipitation is important for the thickness of the light layer.     

Synthetic seismograms from generalized ray tracing1

A new method of numerical computation of elastic wavefields in regions containing caustics is tested. The method is an extension of the asymptotic ray theory (ART). The essential features of the method consist of the application of expressions which are well defined at caustics and expressed in terms of ray tracing combined with complex ray tracing in caustic shadows. The method and an outline of the underlying theory are briefly presented, followed by a comparison with finite differences on a test model involving a caustic cusp. The comparison reveals the unexpectedly high degree of accuracy of the new method.     

Geology of the Acropolis prospect,South Australia,constrained by high-precision CA-TIMS ages

Abstract

Acropolis is an Fe-oxide–copper–gold prospect ～20?km from Olympic Dam, South Australia, and marked by near-coincident gravity and magnetic anomalies. Prospective Fe-oxide–apatite?±?sulfide veins occur in Mesoproterozoic and Paleoproterozoic volcanic and granitoid host units beneath unmineralised sedimentary formations. We have produced a geological map and history of the prospect using data from 16 diamond drill holes, including LA-ICPMS and high-precision CA-TIMS ages. The oldest unit is megacrystic granite of the Donington Suite (ca 1850?Ma). A non-conformity spanning ca 250 My separates the Donington Suite and felsic lavas and ignimbrites of the Gawler Range Volcanics (GRV; 1594.03?±?0.68?Ma). The GRV were intruded by granite of the Hiltaba Suite (1594.88?±?0.50?Ma) and felsic dykes (1593.88?±?0.56?Ma; same age as the Roxby Downs Granite at Olympic Dam). The felsic dykes are weakly altered and lack Fe-oxide–apatite–sulfide veins, suggesting that they post-date the main hydrothermal event. If correct, this relationship implies that the main hydrothermal event at Acropolis was ca 1594?Ma and pre-dated the main hydrothermal event at Olympic Dam. The GRV at Acropolis are the same age as the GRV at Olympic Dam and ca 3–7 My older than the GRV exposed in the Gawler Ranges. The gravity and magnetic anomalies coincide with sections through the GRV, Hiltaba Suite and Donington Suite that contain abundant, wide, Fe-oxide veins. The GRV, Hiltaba Suite and Donington Suite are unconformably overlain by the Mesoproterozoic Pandurra Formation or Neoproterozoic Stuart Shelf sedimentary formations. The Pandurra Formation shows marked lateral variations in thickness related to paleotopography on the underlying units and post-Pandurra Formation pre-Neoproterozoic faults. The Stuart Shelf sedimentary formations have uniform thicknesses.

1. KEY POINTS

2. Fe-oxide–apatite?±?sulfide veins are hosted by the Gawler Range Volcanics (1594.03?±?0.68?Ma), the Hiltaba Suite granite (1594.88?±?0.50?Ma) and Donington Suite granite (ca 1850?Ma).

3. The age of felsic dykes (1593.88?±?0.56?Ma) interpreted to be post-mineralisation implies that the main hydrothermal event at Acropolis was ca 1594?Ma.

4. The Gawler Range Volcanics at Acropolis are the same age as the Gawler Range Volcanics at Olympic Dam and ca 3 to 7 My older than the Gawler Range Volcanics exposed in the Gawler Ranges.

     

RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

A widely used method of evaluating effects of climate change on flow regime is to perturb the climate inputs to a rainfall–runoff model and examine the effect on a statistic of the modelled flows. Such studies require four elements: a method of perturbing the climate, a rainfall–runoff model, a study catchment and a flow index. In practice the direction and magnitude of the estimated effects depend on each of the four elements, leading to concern over the usefulness and generality of the results. To investigate these uncertainties two climate scenarios and eight climate sensitivity tests have been applied to three UK catchments using two conceptual rainfall–runoff models in order to quantify effects of climate change on three flow indices representing mean runoff, flood magnitudes and low flows. The sensitivity tests were found to be useful to assess the suitability of the models to simulate flows outside the conditions experienced in their calibration. Both models gave internally consistent results but, on close examination, one model was found inappropriate for this application. Results show that the effect of climate change on flow varies between catchments and that different flow response indices can change in opposite directions, e.g. floods increased in magnitude while low flows reduced. Contrasting results were obtained from the two climate scenarios.     

Seasonal temperatures for the past ∼400 years reconstructed from diatom and chironomid assemblages in a high-altitude lake (Lej da la Tscheppa,Switzerland)

We analysed a 42 cm long sediment record from Lej da la Tscheppa, a high-altitude lake (2,616 m a.s.l.) in the Upper Engadine valley (Switzerland) for subfossil diatoms, chironomids and pollen. The chronology of the top 21 cm of the record was established using ²¹⁰Pb analysis using a constant-rate-of-supply model, and validated with ¹³⁷Cs measurements and the content of spheroidal carbonaceous particles. A tentative chronology for the lower part of the core was obtained through extrapolation of the sedimentation rates in the uppermost part of the record. Pollen assemblages in the record reflect regional changes in forestation and land-use patterns in the Upper Engadine valley and show no evidence of significant local human activity in the lake’s catchment. Diatom assemblages record a distinct increase in planktonic taxa since the early 19th century, suggesting a decrease in the duration of ice-cover. In contrast, chironomid assemblages remained stable during a large part of the record. We applied an established chironomid-based July air temperature transfer function and a newly developed diatom-based spring air temperature transfer function to reconstruct past seasonal air temperature changes at Lej da la Tscheppa. The reconstructions indicate a diatom-inferred warming trend in spring temperatures during the past ca. 400 years, whereas chironomid-inferred summer temperatures suggest a slight cooling trend. These biota-based reconstructions are in good agreement with the centennial-scale temperature trend in an independent reconstruction of regional temperatures in the Upper Engadine region based on instrumental records and documentary proxy evidence from the Alps. Our results suggest that, in high-altitude lakes, independent chironomid- and diatom-based seasonal temperature reconstruction is possible and can be successfully used to track seasonal temperature trends.     

Sedimentary and tectonic evolution of Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

Lake Ohrid, located on the Balkan Peninsula within the Dinaride–Albanide–Hellenide mountain belt, is a tectonically active graben within the South Balkan Extensional Regime (SBER). Interpretation of multichannel seismic cross sections and bathymetric data reveals that Lake Ohrid formed during two main phases of deformation: (1) a transtensional phase which opened a pull‐apart basin, and (2) an extensional phase which led to the present geometry of Lake Ohrid. After the initial opening, a symmetrical graben formed during the Late Miocene, bounded by major normal faults on each side in a pull‐apart type basin. The early‐stage geometry of the basin has a typical rhomboidal shape restricted by two sets of major normal faults. Thick undisturbed sediments are present today at the site where the acoustic basement is deepest, illustrating that Lake Ohrid is a potential target for drilling a long and continuous sediment core for studying environmental changes within the Mediterranean region. Neotectonic activity since the Pliocene takes place along the roughly N–S‐striking Eastern and Western Major Boundary Normal Faults that are partly exposed at the present lake floor. The tectono‐sedimentary structure of the basin is divided into three main seismic units overlying the acoustic basement associated with fluvial deposits and lacustrine sediments. A seismic facies analysis reveals a prominent cyclic pattern of high‐ and low‐amplitude reflectors. We correlate this facies cyclicity with vegetation changes within the surrounding area that are associated with glacial/interglacial cycles. A clear correlation is possible back to ca. 450 kyrs. Extrapolation of average sedimentation rates for the above mentioned period results in age estimate of ca. 2 Myrs for the oldest sediments in Lake Ohrid.     

Contrasting rifted margin styles south of Greenland: implications for mantle plume dynamics

We present new and reprocessed seismic reflection data from the area where the southeast and southwest Greenland margins intersected to form a triple junction south of Greenland in the early Tertiary. During breakup at 56 Ma, thick igneous crust was accreted along the entire 1300-km-long southeast Greenland margin from the Greenland Iceland Ridge to, and possibly 100 km beyond, the triple junction into the Labrador Sea. However, highly extended and thin crust 250 km to the west of the triple junction suggests that magmatically starved crustal formation occurred on the southwest Greenland margin at the same time. Thus, a transition from a volcanic to a non-volcanic margin over only 100–200 km is observed. Magmatism related to the impact of the Iceland plume below the North Atlantic around 61 Ma is known from central-west and southeast Greenland. The new seismic data also suggest the presence of a small volcanic plateau of similar age close to the triple junction. The extent of initial plume-related volcanism inferred from these observations is explained by a model of lateral flow of plume material that is guided by relief at the base of the lithosphere. Plume mantle is channelled to great distances provided that significant melting does not take place. Melting causes cooling and dehydration of the plume mantle. The associated viscosity increase acts against lateral flow and restricts plume material to its point of entry into an actively spreading rift. We further suggest that thick Archaean lithosphere blocked direct flow of plume material into the magma-starved southwest Greenland margin while the plume was free to flow into the central west and east Greenland margins. The model is consistent with a plume layer that is only moderately hotter, 100–200°C, than ambient mantle temperature, and has a thickness comparable to lithospheric thickness variations, 50–100 km. Lithospheric architecture, the timing of continental rifting and viscosity changes due to melting of the plume material are therefore critical parameters for understanding the distribution of magmatism.