A non-hydrostatic model for the numerical study of landslide-generated waves

This paper proposes and demonstrates a two-layer depth-averaged model with non-hydrostatic pressure correction to simulate landslide-generated waves. Landslide (lower layer) and water (upper layer) motions are governed by the general shallow water equations derived from mass and momentum conservation laws. The landslide motion and wave generation/propagation are separately formulated, but they form a coupled system. Our model combines some features of the landslide analysis model DAN3D and the tsunami analysis model COMCOT and adds a non-hydrostatic pressure correction. We use the new model to simulate a 2007 rock avalanche-generated wave event at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia, Canada. The model results match both the observed distribution of the rock avalanche deposit in the lake and the wave run-up trimline along the shoreline. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the importance of accounting for the non-hydrostatic dynamic pressure at the landslide-water interface, as well as the influence of the internal strength of the landslide on the size of the generated waves. Finally, we compare the numerical results of landslide-generated waves simulated with frictional and Voellmy rheologies. Similar maximum wave run-ups can be obtained using the two different rheologies, but the frictional model better reproduces the known limit of the rock avalanche deposit and is thus considered to yield the best overall results in this particular case.     

A Leaky-Conduit Model of Transient Flow in Karstic Aquifers

Karst Flow Model (KFM) simulates transient flow in an unconfined karstic aquifer having a well-developed conduit system. KFM treats the springshed as a two-dimensional porous matrix containing a triangulated irregular network of leaky conduits. The number and location of conduits can be specified arbitrarily, perhaps using field information as a guide, or generated automatically. Conduit networks can be tree-like or braided. Rainwater that has infiltrated down from the surface leaks into the conduits from the adjacent porous matrix at a rate dictated by Darcy’s law, then flows turbulently to the spring via the conduits. KFM is calibrated using the known steady state; geometry and recharge determine the steady fluxes in the conduits, and the head distribution determines conduit gradients and sizes. Spring flow can vary with time due to spatially and temporally variable recharge and due to prescribed variations in the elevation of the spring. KFM is illustrated by four examples run on a test aquifer consisting of 27 nodes, 42 elements, and 26 conduits. Three examples (drought, uniform rainstorm, storm-water input to one element) are simulations, while the fourth uses data from a spring-basin flooding event. The qualitative fit between the predicted and observed spring discharge in the fourth example provides support of the hypothesis that the dynamic behavior of a karst conduit system is an emergent property of a self-organized system, largely independent of the locations and properties of individual conduits.     

Role of Crystal Interlocking on the Strength of Brittle Rocks

Results of an experimental programme on heterogeneous rock-like specimens of dental plaster confirm the pronounced role of tensile microcracks on brittle failure. Microbuckling of very small rock-columns formed amid closely located tensile cracks was observed as the key incident connecting stable phenomenon of tensile cracking to unstable phenomenon of shearing and subsequent macroscopic failure. Using the classical beam and buckling theories and considering geometry of the problem a new failure criterion is proposed. As a novel attempt, this new failure criterion relates the compressive strength of rock to three basic microstructural properties, i.e. degree of crystal interlocking, average Young modulus and average tensile strength of rock forming minerals.     

Drinking-water treatment,climate change,and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater

This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ～1.5%, range: ?3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ～3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ～82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).     

A novel geographical information system-based Ant Miner algorithm model for delineating groundwater flowing artesian well boundary: a case study from Iraqi southern and western deserts

The Ant Miner algorithm was compared with the bivariate frequency ratio (FR) and boosted regression trees (BRT) algorithms in terms of its capacity to assess groundwater potential. A geospatial dataset was prepared that contains two components: a flowing well inventory map and eleven factors relevant to groundwater conditions. Average nearest neighbor technique was used to investigate the spatial pattern of flowing wells and to find the appropriate distance between flowing and nonflowing points in the study area. A wrapper approach known as random forest classifier and a filtering approach known as information gain ratio were used to identify the most relevant groundwater factors. The developed models were validated via the area under the operating characteristic curve. Results revealed that the Ant Miner model performed better in terms of both success (0.944) and prediction (0.92) rates compared to FR and BRT. Furthermore, the Ant Miner algorithm derived five simple, easily interpreted rules for predicting groundwater potential that can be used by hydrogeologists for identifying potential groundwater well locations with minimal effort and cost.     

Rethinking communication in risk interpretation and action

We have studied the attenuation characteristics of eastern Himalaya and southern Tibet by using local earthquake data set that consists of 123 well-located events, recorded by the Himalayan Nepal Tibet Seismic Experiment operated during 2001–2003. We have used single backscattering model to calculate frequency-dependent values of coda Q (\(Q_\mathrm{c}\)). The estimation of \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) is made at central frequencies 2, 4, 8 and 12 Hz through five lapse time windows from 10 to 50 s starting at double the travel time of the S-wave. The observed \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) is found to be strongly frequency-dependent and follows a similar trend as observed in other tectonically active parts of the Himalaya. The trend of variation of \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) with lapse time and the corresponding apparent depths is also studied. Increase in \(Q_\mathrm{c}\) values with the lapse time suggests that the deeper part of the study region is less heterogeneous than the shallower part. The observed values of \(Q_0\) (\(Q_\mathrm{c}\) at 1 Hz) and frequency parameter n indicate that the medium beneath the study area is highly heterogeneous and tectonically very active. A regionalization of the estimated \(Q_0\) is carried out, and a contour map is prepared for the whole region. Some segments of Lesser Himalaya and Sub-Himalaya exhibit very low \(Q_0\) , while the whole Tethyan Himalaya and some parts of Greater Himalaya are characterized by low \(Q_0\) values. Our results are comparable with those obtained from tectonically active regions in the world.     

Formation of intracratonic basins by lithospheric shortening and phase changes: a case study from the ultra‐deep East Barents Sea basin

The origin of large subsidence in intracratonic basins is still under debate. We propose a new and self‐consistent model for the formation of those basins, where lithospheric shortening/buckling triggers metamorphism and densification of crustal mafic heterogeneities. We use a forward thermo‐mechanical finite element technique to evaluate this mechanism for the typical example of the East Barents Sea basin (EBB) where a very large and compensated subsidence, accommodating an up to 20‐km‐thick sediment succession, is observed. The lower crust in the dynamic model is modelled with petrologic‐consistent densities for a wet mafic gabbroic composition that depend on pressure and temperature taking into account dehydration at high PT conditions. The model successfully explains the main characteristics of the EBB, notably the large anomalous and fast subsidence during the Late Permian–Early Triassic, its present‐day geometry and the absence of a significant gravity anomaly.     

Wind-Driven Dissolved Organic Matter Dynamics in a Chesapeake Bay Tidal Marsh-Estuary System

Controls on organic matter cycling across the tidal wetland-estuary interface have proved elusive, but high-resolution observations coupled with process-based modeling can be a powerful methodology to address shortcomings in either methodology alone. In this study, detailed observations and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling are used to examine biogeochemical exchanges in the marsh-estuary system of the Rhode River, MD, USA. Analysis of observations near the marsh in 2015 reveals a strong relationship between marsh creek salinity and dissolved organic matter fluorescence (fDOM), with wind velocity indirectly driving large amplitude variation of both salinity and fDOM at certain times of the year. Three-dimensional model results from the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model implemented for the wetland system with a new marsh grass drag module are consistent with observations, simulating sub-tidal variability of marsh creek salinity. The model results exhibit an interaction between wind-driven variation in surface elevation and flow velocity at the marsh creek, with northerly winds driving increased freshwater signal and discharge out of the modeled wetland during precipitation events. Wind setup of a water surface elevation gradient axially along the estuary drives the modeled local sub-tidal flow and thus salinity variability. On sub-tidal time scales (>36 h, <1 week), wind is important in mediating dissolved organic matter releases from the Kirkpatrick Marsh into the Rhode River.     

Holocene tectono-geomorphic evolution of Haryana plains,Western Ganga plain,India

Haryana plain is the drainage divide between the Ganga plain in the east and the Indus plain in the west. Being a part of the Himalayan foreland, its geomorphology, sedimentation processes, and tectonism are broadly controlled by the Himalayan tectonics. Soil and geomorphological mapping in Haryana plain bring out geomorphic features such as paleochannels, various active drainage patterns, and landforms such as old fluvial plains, floodplains, piedmonts, pediments, terminal fans, and eolian plains. Based on the degree of soil development, and Optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages, the soil-geomorphic units were grouped into six members (QIMS-I to VI) (Quaternary Indus Morphostratigraphic Sequence) of a morphostratigraphic sequence: QIMS-VI 9.86–5.38 Ka, QIMS-V 5.38–4.45 Ka, QIMS-IV 4.45–3.60 Ka, QIMS-III 3.60–2.91 Ka, QIMS-II <?2.91–1.52 Ka, and QIMS-I <?1.52 Ka. OSL chronology of different geomorphic features suggests six episodes of tectono-geomorphic evolution in the region since 10 Ka. Neotectonic features such as nine faults, two lineaments, and five fault-bounded tectonic blocks have been identified. Independent tilting and sagging of the blocks in response to neotectonics have resulted in modification of landforms, depositional processes, and hydro-geomorphology of the region. Major rivers like the Yamuna, the Ghaggar, and the Sutlej show different episodes of shifting of their courses. Lineament controlled few extinct channels have been recorded between 20 and 25 m depth below the surface in the ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles. These buried channels are aligned along the paleo-course of the Lost Saraswati River interpreted from the existing literature and hence are considered as the course of the lost river. Seven terminal fans have been formed on the downthrown blocks of the associated faults. The Markanda Terminal Fan, the first of such features described, is indeed a splay terminal fan and was formed by a splay distributary system of the Markanda River. Association of three terminal fans of different ages with the Karnal fault indicates the segment-wise development of the fault from west to east. Also, comparison with other such studies in the Ganga plain to further east suggests that the terminal fans formed by streams with distributary drainage pattern occur only in semiarid regions as in the present area and thus are indicators of semiarid climate/paleoclimate. Though the whole region is tectonically active, the region between the Rohtak fault and Hisar fault is most active at present signified by the concentration of earthquake epicenters.