Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Platinum-group elements (Ir,Pd, Pt and Rh) in road-deposited sediments in two urban watersheds,Hawaii

This study represents the first detailed investigation of platinum-group elements (PGEs) in road-deposited sediment (RDS) in Hawaii, USA. Thirty-three sample locations, in two urban watersheds in Honolulu, Oahu, Hawaii were sampled. The <63 μm fraction of RDS was digested with aqua regia, followed by matrix separation with Dowex AG50-X8 cation exchange resin. PGEs were analyzed with inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) equipped with a desolvating nebulizer. Concentrations of Rh, Pd and Pt in residential streets reached 64, 105 and 506 ng/g, respectively. Maximum enrichment ratios, computed as RDS concentrations relative to baseline values, exceeded 400, indicating a significant anthropogenic signal with the sequence Rh > Pt > Pd. Iridium concentrations were uniformly low <1 ng/g, and enrichment ratios support a geogenic source. Significant interelement PGE correlations (Pd–Pt–Rh), combined with the magnitude of PGE pair-wise ratios (Pt/Pd, Pt/Rh and Pd/Rh), and relative percentages comparable to European RDS and roadside soil in Indiana, USA all suggest an automobile source. Attrition of PGE-loaded automobile catalytic converters and subsequent loss to the environment by exhaust emissions explains the significant environmental signal of PGEs in road environments of Hawaii. Further PGE work is required to quantify urban transport paths as PGEs are known to bioaccumulate, cause cellular damage and may have detrimental human health effects.     

Testing a spatially distributed tracer‐aided runoff model in a snow‐influenced catchment: Effects of multicriteria calibration on streamwater ages

Integrating stable isotope tracers into rainfall‐runoff models allows investigation of water partitioning and direct estimation of travel times and water ages. Tracer data have valuable information content that can be used to constrain models and, in integration with hydrometric observations, test the conceptualization of catchment processes in model structure and parameterization. There is great potential in using tracer‐aided modelling in snow‐influenced catchments to improve understanding of these catchments' dynamics and sensitivity to environmental change. We used the spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall‐runoff (STARR) model to simulate the interactions between water storage, flux, and isotope dynamics in a snow‐influenced, long‐term monitored catchment in Ontario, Canada. Multiple realizations of the model were achieved using a combination of single and multiple objectives as calibration targets. Although good simulations of hydrometric targets such as discharge and snow water equivalent could be achieved by local calibration alone, adequate capture of the stream isotope dynamics was predicated on the inclusion of isotope data in the calibration. Parameter sensitivity was highest, and most local, for single calibration targets. With multiple calibration targets, key sensitive parameters were still identifiable in snow and runoff generation routines. Water ages derived from flux tracking subroutines in the model indicated a catchment where runoff is dominated by younger waters, particularly during spring snowmelt. However, resulting water ages were most sensitive to the partitioning of runoff sources from soil and groundwater sources, which was most realistically achieved when isotopes were included in the calibration. Given the paucity of studies where hydrological models explicitly incorporate tracers in snow‐influenced regions, this study using STARR is an important contribution to satisfactorily simulating snowpack dynamics and runoff generation processes, while simultaneously capturing stable isotope variability in snow‐influenced catchments.     

The ability of detainment bunds to decrease sediments transported from pastoral catchments in surface runoff

Erosion leading to sedimentation in surface water may disrupt aquatic habitats and deliver sediment-bound nutrients that contribute to eutrophication. Land use changes causing loss of native vegetation have accelerated already naturally high erosion rates in New Zealand and increased sedimentation in streams and lakes. Sediment-bound phosphorus (P) makes up 71–79% of the 17–19 t P y⁻¹ delivered from anthropogenic sources to Lake Rotorua in New Zealand. Detainment bunds (DBs) were first implemented in the Lake Rotorua catchment in 2010 as a strategy to address P losses from pastoral agriculture. The bunds are 1.5–2 m high earthen stormwater retention structures constructed across the flow path of targeted low-order ephemeral streams with the purpose of temporarily ponding runoff on productive pastures. The current DB design protocol recommends a minimum pond volume of 120 m³ ha⁻¹ of contributing catchment with a maximum pond storage capacity of 10 000 m³. No previous study has investigated the ability of DBs to decrease annual suspended sediment (SS) loads leaving pastoral catchments. Annual SS yields delivered to two DBs with 20 ha and 55 ha catchments were 109 and 28 kg SS ha⁻¹, respectively, during this 12-month study. The DBs retained 1280 kg (59%) and 789 kg (51%) of annual SS loads delivered from the catchments as a result of the bunds' ability to impede stormflow and facilitate soil infiltration and sediment deposition. The results of this study highlight the ability of DBs to decrease SS loads transported from pastures in surface runoff, even during large storm events, and suggests DBs are able to reduce P loading in Lake Rotorua.     

Extreme gravitational lensing near rotating black holes

We describe a new approach to calculating photon trajectories and gravitational lensing effects in the strong gravitational field of the Kerr black hole. These techniques are applied to explore both the imaging and spectral properties of photons emitted from an accretion disc, which perform multiple orbits of the central mass before escaping to infinity. Viewed at large inclinations, these higher-order photons contribute ∼20 per cent of the total luminosity of the system for a Schwarzschild hole, while for an extreme Kerr black hole this fraction rises to ∼60 per cent. In more realistic models, these photons will be reabsorbed by the disc at large distances from the hole, but this returning radiation could provide a physical mechanism to resolve the discrepancy between the predicted and observed optical/ultraviolet colours in active galactic nuclei. Conversely, at low inclinations, higher-order images reintercept the disc plane close to the black hole, so need not be absorbed by the disc if this is within the plunging region. These photons form a bright ring carrying approximately 10 per cent of the total disc luminosity for a Schwarzschild black hole. The spatial separation between the inner edge of the disc and the ring is similar to the size of the event horizon. This is resolvable for supermassive black holes with proposed X-ray interferometery missions such as the Microarcsecond X-ray Imaging Mission (MAXIM), and so has the potential to provide an observational test of strong field gravity.     

Potential impacts of climate change on storage conditions for commercial agriculture: an example for potato production in Michigan

Climate change is anticipated to influence all parts of agricultural production systems. However, the potential impacts on crop storage have rarely been assessed, even though storage is an important component of a grower’s marketing strategy and is essential for the continuous supply of a commodity for processors, exporters, and consumers. The Michigan chip-processing potato industry provides an example of the importance of crop storage. Michigan is the largest producer of chip-processing potatoes in the USA, and potatoes are stored on farms from September to June. We use an ensemble of climate projections developed for three future time slices (early, mid, and late century) from 16 climate models forced by three greenhouse gas concentration pathways to assess future changes in potato storage conditions. Our findings indicate an increased future demand for ventilation and/or refrigeration immediately after harvest and again in spring and early summer, even for the early-century time slice. Furthermore, the period of reliably cold storage temperatures during winter is anticipated, when averaged across all models, to shorten by 11–17 days in Michigan’s primary production area and 14–20 days in the more southern secondary area by mid-century, and by 15–29 days and 31–35 days, respectively, for the northern and southern production areas by late century. The level of uncertainty, as indicated by the ensemble range, is large, although the sign of the projected changes in storage parameters is consistent. This case study provides an example of the potentially large effects of climate change on the storage conditions for agricultural commodities.     

Magmatic Differentiation at an Island-arc Caldera: Okmok Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

Okmok volcano is situated on oceanic crust in the central Aleutianarc and experienced large (15 km³) caldera-forming eruptionsat 12 000 years BP and 2050 years BP. Each caldera-forming eruptionbegan with a small Plinian rhyodacite event followed by theemplacement of a dominantly andesitic ash-flow unit, whereaseffusive inter- and post-caldera lavas have been more basaltic.Phenocryst assemblages are composed of olivine + pyroxene +plagioclase ± Fe–Ti oxides and indicate crystallizationat 1000–1100°C at 0·1–0·2 GPain the presence of 0–4% H₂O. The erupted products followa tholeiitic evolutionary trend and calculated liquid compositionsrange from 52 to 68 wt % SiO₂ with 0·8–3·3wt % K₂O. Major and trace element models suggest that the moreevolved magmas were produced by 50–60% in situ fractionalcrystallization around the margins of the shallow magma chamber.Oxygen and strontium isotope data (¹⁸O 4·4–4·9,⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr 0·7032–0·7034) indicate interactionwith a hydrothermally altered crustal component, which led toelevated thorium isotope ratios in some caldera-forming magmas.This compromises the use of uranium–thorium disequilibria[(²³⁰Th/ ²³⁸U) = 0·849–0·964] to constrainthe time scales of magma differentiation but instead suggeststhat the age of the hydrothermal system is 100 ka. Modellingof the diffusion of strontium in plagioclase indicates thatmany evolved crystal rims formed less than 200 years prior toeruption. This addition of rim material probably reflects theremobilization of crystals from the chamber margins followingreplenishment. Basaltic recharge led to the expansion of themagma chamber, which was responsible for the most recent caldera-formingevent. KEY WORDS: Okmok; caldera; U-series isotopes; Sr-diffusion; time scales; Aleutian arc     

A Numerical Case Study of the Implications of Secondary Circulations to the Interpretation of Eddy-Covariance Measurements Over Small Lakes

The CASES-99 experimental data are used to analyze turbulence behaviour under a range of stable conditions using an adaptive method based on Hilbert spectral analysis. The characteristic scales of intrinsic mode functions vary between different stratifications. The second-order Hilbert marginal spectra display clear separation between fine-scale turbulence and large-scale motions. After removing the large-scale motions, the statistical characteristics of the reconstructed signals confirm the distinction of different stratifications in the fine-scale range. The correlation coefficient analyses reveal that the Hilbert spectral analysis method separates turbulence from large-scale motions in the stable boundary layer.     

Syn‐kinematic sedimentation at a releasing splay in the northern Minwun Ranges,Sagaing Fault zone,Myanmar: significance for fault timing and displacement

The Sagaing Fault zone is the largest active fault in SE Asia, whose current displacement rate of around 1.8 cm year^?1 is well‐established from GPS data. Yet determining the timing of initiation and total displacement on the fault zone has proven controversial. The timing problem can potentially be resolved through a newly identified syn‐kinematic sedimentary section directly related to displacement on the Sagaing Fault in the northern Minwun Ranges. The northern part of the western strand of the Sagaing Fault has a releasing splay geometry that sets up a syn‐kinematic oblique‐extensional basin in its hangingwall, here called the North Minwun Basin. A series of thick ridges probably composed of alluvial fan and fluvial sandstones dipping between 20 and 70° to the north, and younging northwards comprise the basin fill over a distance of 40 km. Total stratigraphic thickness (not vertical thickness) is estimated at 25 km. The basin in terms of depositional geometries, large displacements, and large stratigraphic thickness and appearance on satellite images has parallels with the extensional Hornelen basin, Norway and the strike‐slip Ridge Basin, California. Minimum likely displacement on the fault strand is 40 km, and may possibly be in excess of 100 km. The remote and inaccessible basin has yet to be properly dated, likely ages range between Eocene and Miocene. When dated the basin will provide an important constraint on the timing of deformation. The potential for this basin to constrain the timing and displacement along the northern part of the Sagaing Fault has not been previously recognised.     

Monitoring changes of ice streams using time series of satellite-altimetry-based digital terrain models

The Antarctic Ice Sheet plays a major role in the global system, and the large ice streams discharging into the circumpolar sea represent its gateways to the world’s oceans. Satellite radar altimeter data provide an opportunity for mapping surface elevation at kilometerresolution with meteraccuracy. Geostaristical methods have been developed for the analysis of these data. Applications to Seasat data and data from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission indicate that the grounding line of Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf, the largest ice stream in East Antarctica, has advanced 10–12 km between 1978 and 1987–89. The objectives of this paper are to explore possibilities and limitations of satellite-altimetry-based mapping to capture changes for shorter time windows and for smaller areas, and to investigate some methodological aspects of the data analysis. We establish that one season of radar altimeter data is sufficient for constructing a map. This allows study of interannual variation and is the key for a limeseries analysis approach to study changes in ice streams. Maps of the lower Lambert Glacier and the entire Amery Ice Shelf are presented for austral winters 1978, 1987, 1988, and 1989. As a first step toward understanding the dynamics of the ice-stream/iceshelf system, elevation changes are calculated for grounded ice, the grounding zone, and floating ice. In the absence of (sufficient) surface gravity control for the Lambert Glacier/Amery Ice Shelf area, altimetry-based maps may facilitate improvement of geoid models as they provide constraints on the terrain correction in the inverse gravimetric problem.