Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate...     

Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981–2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land–ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.     

An analytical migration method for crustal wide angle reflections

Summary An analytical migration method is developed for inverting wide angle seismic reflection travel time data with proper migration. In this method the concept of effective velocity (V _eff ) in the vertically inhomogeneous earth has been used, which takes into account the refraction effect. It is shown that the migration process in this case becomes extremely rapid as curved ray paths are replaced by equivalent straight paths. A post migration sliding correction is found to be necessary, which arises due to the non-collinearity of the recording point, reflection point and the image point in the equivalent straight path geometry for dipping reflectors. Calculations for some representative dips show that, for the depths and recording ranges of interest in DSS, the vertical component of the sliding correction is negligible compared to the horizontal component. However, even the horizontal component is not significant for reflectors with gentle dips. The effect of certain simplifying assumptions in the estimation of V _eff is shown to be within the error limits of velocity determination. A computer programme package has been written for carrying out the migration. The method yields more accurate results in various theoretical and field cases than the conventional graphical wave front methods which are at present widely used for crustal reflection work.     

Characterization of hydrogeochemical process and evaluation of water quality of seven geothermal springs,Bakreswar, India

A study was conducted in seven geothermal springs located in Bakreswar, District Birbhum, West Bengal, India, in order to assess numerous geochemical processes which were responsible for chemical composition of thermal and mineralized water. The study area lies over the Sone, Narmada, and Tapti lineament of Precambrian Chotanagpur Gneissic Complex. Water chemistry has been carried out based on reaction stoichiometry and geo-statistical tools to identify geochemical process. Piper and Gibbs diagram suggest that the spring water belongs to Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO₃^??+?CO₃^2? water type and are controlled by rock dominance. Dissolution and precipitation of calcite, dolomite, gypsum, and fluorite minerals were identified as principle source of major ions in seven geothermal spring water. Principle component analyses revealed that major ions of spring water are derived from geogenic processes such as weathering, dissolution, and precipitation of various minerals. Overall results suggest that major ions of the spring’s water are derived from natural origin because no evidence of anthropogenic sources was observed during the study period. This study has also revealed that water quality of spring’s water is not suitable for drinking purposes and quite suitable for irrigation because of high abundance of Na⁺, K⁺, Cl^?, and HCO₃^? ions.     

Drought analysis and its implication in sustainable water resource management in Barind area,Bangladesh

The study analyzes drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall (MK) Trend Test in the context of the impacts of drought on groundwater table (GWT) during the period 1971-2011 in the Barind area, Bangladesh. The area experienced twelve moderate to extreme agricultural droughts in the years 1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, 2003, 2005, 2009 and 2010. Some of them coincide with El Niño events. Hydrological drought also occurred almost in the same years. However, relationship between all drought events and El Niño is not clear. Southern and central parts of the area frequently suffer from hydrological drought, northern part is affected by agricultural drought. Trends in SPI values indicate that the area has an insignificant trend towards drought, and numbers of mild and moderate drought are increasing. GWT depth shows strong correlation with rainy season SPI values such that GWT regaining corresponds with rising SPI values and vice versa. However, 2000 onwards, GWT depth is continuously increasing even with positive SPI values. This is due to over-exploitation of groundwater and changes in cropping patterns. Agricultural practice in Barind area based on groundwater irrigation is vulnerable to drought. Hence, adaptation measures to minimize effects of drought on groundwater ought to be taken.     

Multicriteria decision analysis in water resources management: the malnichara channel improvement

Multicriteria decision analysis tool is used in many water resources and environmental management projects. The Malnichara is one of the natural channels in Sylhet city (Bangladesh) responsible for storm runoff conveyance to the downstream Surma river. The channel is found to be encroached at many locations of the city and found to be very vulnerable. The authority has taken decision to improve natural channels by a traditional approach, e.g. constructing box culvert. In most cases, stakeholders’ participation is ignored in such type of decision making. Hence, efforts were made to evaluate three common alternatives viz. sodding natural channel, lined natural channel and box culvert for the channel improvement. The channel is hydrologically divided into two parts: the upper portion (Choukidekhi-Kanishail) and the lower portion (Kanishail-Topoban). Both parts were separately analyzed. Small groups of stakeholders were interviewed for the selection of criteria and for the assignment of weighed factor and scores. Experts’ opinions were also taken through consultation. Nine criteria from four categories such as technical, economic, environment and social aspects were selected. The relative performances of alternatives were evaluated using the weighed sum technique of multicriteria decision analysis. It was found that the sodding natural channel is the best alternative for both portions of the channel. However, the choice is very sensitive to the social criteria.     

Hydrochemistry and origin of salinity in groundwater in parts of Lower Tista Floodplain,northwest Bangladesh

Hydrochemistry in parts of the Lower Tista Floodplain in northwest Bangladesh is dominated by alkalies and weakly acid, having highest concentration of sodium cations and bicarbonate anions respectively. Groundwater is characterized by sodium-calcium and sodium-potassium cation and bicarbonate-chloride-sulphate anion facies, and genetically ‘normal chloride’, ‘normal sulphate’, and ‘normal carbonated’ type, and soft to saline. Based on electrical conductivity values, the area is divided into northern fresh and southern saline groundwater zone, and values like salinity, Na%, SAR, and RSC and a good correlation between Na⁺ and Cl^?, and Cl^? and salinity reveals increasing salinity with depth indicating a mixing of fresh and saline bodies due to marine transgression (?) during Holocene period in the Bengal delta. The rock weathering is likely to affect the groundwater quality by dolomite dissolution and calcium precipitation, representing reverse softening process and is brine seawater. Water extracted from shallow zone (from 20 to 30 m) has suitability for drinking purpose, livestock consumption and irrigation purposes, and partially suitable for industrial use, but that from deeper zone (from 30 to 50 m) is generally poor and unsuitable especially for irrigation purposes with low alkali and moderate to high salinity hazard. So groundwater can be used for irrigation in the area of fine textured soil with proper management practices.