Analogue-dynamical prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China based on dynamic and optimal configuration of multiple predictors

Based on the National Climate Center (NCC) of China operational seasonal prediction model results for the period 1983–2009 and the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center merged analysis of precipitation in the same period, together with the 74 circulation indices of NCC Climate System Diagnostic Division and 40 climate indices of NOAA of US during 1951–2009, an analogue-dynamical technique for objective and quantitative prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China is proposed and implemented. Useful information is extracted from the historical data to estimate the model forecast errors. Dominant predictors and the predictors that exhibit evolving analogues are identified through cross validating the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) among single predictors, meanwhile with reference of the results from the dynamic analogue bias correction using four analogue samples. Next, an optimal configuration of multiple predictors is set up and compared with historical optimal multi-predictor configurations and then dynamically adjusted. Finally, the model errors are evaluated and utilized to correct the NCC operational seasonal prediction model results, and the forecast of monsoon precipitation is obtained at last. The independent sample validation shows that this technique has effectively improved the monsoon precipitation prediction skill during 2005–2009. This study demonstrates that the analogue-dynamical approach is feasible in operational prediction of monsoon precipitation.     

差分干涉测量黄河三角洲天然湿地水位变化研究

利用合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术监测湿地水位变化,对湿地保护、恢复和重建具有非常重要的意义.利用C波段VV极化和L波段HH极化合成孔径雷达影像,结合同步野外测量和调查工作,在各季节不同时间间隔下,研究不同湿地类型的后向散射特性差异和干涉相干性差异;在对影响干涉相干性的因素进行评价的基础上,建立差分干涉测量湿地水位变化监测的函数模型,利用获取的合成孔径雷达影像,分析黄河三角洲的天然湿地水位变化.研究结果表明,利用差分干涉测量技术不仅可以获取湿地水位变化,而且还能提供水位变化的空间细节,这是本技术最突出的特色.     

Column restraint in post‐tensioned self‐centering moment frames

Gaps between beam‐to‐column interfaces in a post‐tensioned (PT) self‐centering frame with more than one column are constrained by columns, which causes beam compression force different from the applied PT force. This study proposes an analytical method for evaluating column bending stiffness and beam compression force by modeling column deformation according to gap‐openings at all stories. The predicted compression forces in the beams are validated by a cyclic analysis of a three‐story PT frame and by cyclic tests of a full‐scale, two‐bay by first‐story PT frame, which represents a substructure of the three‐story PT frame. The proposed method shows that compared with the strand tensile force, the beam compression force is increased at the 1st story but is decreased at the 2nd and 3rd stories due to column deformation compatibility. The PT frame tests show that the proposed method reasonably predicts beam compression force and strand force and that the beam compression force is 2 and 60% larger than the strand force with respect to a minor restraint and a pin‐supported boundary condition, respectively, at the tops of the columns. Therefore, the earlier method using a pin‐supported boundary condition at upper story columns represents an upper bound of the effect and is shown to be overly conservative for cases where a structure responds primarily in its first mode. The proposed method allows for more accurate prediction of the column restraint effects for structures that respond in a pre‐determined mode shape which is more typical of low and mid‐rise structures. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE SENSITIVITY INFLUENCE OF NUMERICAL MODEL INITIAL VALUES ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL ASSIMILATION-STUDY BASED ON LORENZ SYSTEM*

Numerical experiments of adjoint variational assimilation have been performed using the known Lorenz system.With the increase of sensitivity of model's initial values,it is more and more difficult to use the adjoint method to get the initial values which are consistent with the dynamics of the forecast model.Under some circumstances the algorithm completely fails.This shows that four-dimensional assimilation is related to the limit of predictability.On the other hand.with the increase of model equation's error,the result of variational assimilation may become worse and worse so that the prediction has no meaning.But if the model parameters are corrected when variational assimilation is made,the forecast results can be greatly improved based on Lorenz model.     

Wavelet analysis on the runoffs of the Changjiang River and the Huanghe River

Summary The Runoff of the Changjiang River and the Huanghe River were investigated with the method of wavelet transform. Several significant periods were found. Comparison between wavelet analysis and Fourier analysis was made, which shows the advantages of the former. Finally, the application of the wavelet analysis to operational prediction is discussed.This study is supported by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Chinese Academy of Sciences.With 6 Figures     

Analyses of extreme climate events over china based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. In observations, frost days （FD） and low-temperature threshold days （TN10P） show a de- creasing trend, and summer days （SU）, high-temperature threshold days （TX90P）, heavy precipitation days （R20）, and the contribution of heavy precipitation days （P95T） show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main char- acteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986--2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble （MME） for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process pararneterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.     

A regression model using sediment chemistry for the evaluation of marine environmental impacts associated with salmon aquaculture cage wastes

This study was undertaken to develop an approach for modelling changes of sediment chemistry related to the accumulation of aquaculture waste. Metal composition of sediment Al, Cu, Fe, Li, Mn, and Zn; organic carbon and < 63 microm particles were used to determine the extent of detectable effects around the cage. This study showed marked differences in the sediment chemistry between aquaculture sites and the natural background: (1) negative correlations between sediment Cu and Zn with Al, (2) poor correlations between metals and Li, and (3) concentrations of Fe and Mn decreased with increased accumulation of organic carbon. There is a trend among normalised metals, organic carbon and particles related to normal, hypoxic and anoxic sediment conditions. The trends are useful for detecting and assessing the cumulative effects from aquaculture wastes to the marine environment. Lithium is less interactive with other metals in aquaculture sediments compared with the natural background sediments. Principal components analysis (PCA) was carried out on the metals, organic carbon, and particles to cluster the similarities of the variables so as to establish the predicted or adjusted environmental monitoring program (EMP) ratings. This approach, using the adjusted EMP rating based on sediment chemistry, yields a regression model with R2 = 0.945 compared to R2= 0.653 for the regression model using unadjusted EMP for assessing the environmental conditions.     

初始场作用的衰减与算子的特性

本文根据描述大气运动的原始方程的算子的性质论证了初始场影响的衰减.对研究某些实际问题来说原始方程必须简化,作者建议,在进行这样那样的简化或离散化时应注意保持算子的性质不变.     

Determination of methane concentrations in water in equilibrium with sI methane hydrate in the absence of a vapor phase by in situ Raman spectroscopy

Most submarine gas hydrates are located within the two-phase equilibrium region of hydrate and interstitial water with pressures (P) ranging from 8 to 60 MPa and temperatures (T) from 275 to 293 K. However, current measurements of solubilities of methane in equilibrium with hydrate in the absence of a vapor phase are limited below 20 MPa and 283.15 K, and the differences among these data are up to 30%. When these data were extrapolated to other P-T conditions, it leads to large and poorly known uncertainties. In this study, in situ Raman spectroscopy was used to measure methane concentrations in pure water in equilibrium with sI (structure one) methane hydrate, in the absence of a vapor phase, at temperatures from 276.6 to 294.6 (±0.3) K and pressures at 10, 20, 30 and 40 (±0.4%) MPa. The relationship among concentration of methane in water in equilibrium with hydrate, in mole fraction [X(CH₄)], the temperature in K, and pressure in MPa was derived as: X(CH₄) = exp [11.0464 + 0.023267 P − (4886.0 + 8.0158 P)/T]. Both the standard enthalpy and entropy of hydrate dissolution at the studied T-P conditions increase slightly with increasing pressure, ranging from 41.29 to 43.29 kJ/mol and from 0.1272 to 0.1330 kJ/K · mol, respectively. When compared with traditional sampling and analytical methods, the advantages of our method include: (1) the use of in situ Raman signals for methane concentration measurements eliminates possible uncertainty caused by sampling and ex situ analysis, (2) it is simple and efficient, and (3) high-pressure data can be obtained safely.     

耦合适应力的福州市高温脆弱性评估

全球气候变化导致极端高温发生区域不断增加,高温给自然环境和人类社会带来的负面效应不断扩大,严重影响了城市复合人地系统的脆弱性。适应是应对极端高温的重要行动,耦合适应力因素的城市高温脆弱性研究已成为国际热点和研究前沿。本文以中国代表性高温城市福州为例,利用专家评估、AHP法、地理空间分析技术,结合实地问卷调查和有序多分类Logistic回归分析等方法,重构耦合适应力的城市高温脆弱性空间评价指标体系,通过对福州市高温脆弱性和适应力的影响因素、空间分异特征、热点地区和尺度间依赖进行研究,系统评估了福州市高温脆弱性。结果表明：① 年龄、住房面积、外出纳凉频率、健康状况、医疗便利程度和政府缓解高温力度等6个指标对福州市居民高温适应力水平具有显著影响;② 福州市高温脆弱性、暴露性和适应力的空间分布均呈现“核心—外围”空间结构,高温脆弱性呈现“半包围式”的“外高内低”的空间特征;③ 在城市区域高温暴露性和易损性相同的背景下,从个体人到社区和城市层面的主动适应高温的能力,将显著改变城市高温脆弱性的空间分布。研究结果以期推动城市高温脆弱性研究的理论发展,并为福州市及同类型高温城市的高温脆弱性评估、调控和适应提供决策参考。