An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.     

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.     

Downward longwave radiation estimates for clear and all-sky conditions in the Sertãozinho region of São Paulo, Brazil

The accurate estimate of the surface longwave fluxes contribution is important for the calculation of the surface radiation budget, which in turn controls all the components of the surface energy budget, such as evaporation and the sensible heat fluxes. This study evaluates the performance of the various downward longwave radiation parameterizations for clear and all-sky days applied to the Sertãozinho region in São Paulo, Brazil. Equations have been adjusted to the observations of longwave radiation. The adjusted equations were evaluated for every hour throughout the day and the results showed good fits for most of the day, except near dawn and sunset, followed by nighttime. The seasonal variation was studied by comparing the dry period against the rainy period in the dataset. The least square linear regressions resulted in coefficients equal to the coefficients found for the complete period, both in the dry period and in the rainy period. It is expected that the best fit equation to the observed data for this site be used to produce estimates in other regions of the State of São Paulo, where such information is not available.     

Compositions and source apportionments of atmospheric aerosol during Asian dust storm and local pollution in central Taiwan

A study has been carried out on water soluble ions, trace elements, as well as PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10 elemental and organic carbon samples collected daily from Central Taiwan over a one year period in 2005. A source apportionment study was performed, employing a Gaussian trajectory transfer coefficient model (GTx) to the results from 141 sets of PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10 samples. Two different types of PM₁₀ episodes, local pollution (LOP) and Asian dust storm (ADS) were observed in this study. The results revealed that relative high concentrations of secondary aerosols (NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻ and NH₄⁺) and the elements Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As were observed in PM_2.5 during LOP periods. However, sea salt species (Na⁺ and Cl⁻) and crustal elements (e.g., Al, Fe, Mg, K, Ca and Ti) of PM_2.5–10 showed a sharp increase during ADS periods. Anthropogenic source metals, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As, as well as coarse nitrate also increased with ADS episodes. Moreover, reconstruction of aerosol compositions revealed that soil of PM_2.5–10 elevated approximately 12–14% in ADS periods than LOP and Clear periods. A significantly high ratio of non-sea salt sulfate to elemental carbon (NSS-SO₄²⁻/EC) of PM_2.5–10 during ADS periods was associated with higher concentrations of non-sea-salt sulfates from the industrial regions of China. Source apportionment analysis showed that 39% of PM₁₀, 25% of PM_2.5, 50% of PM_2.5–10, 42% of sulfate and 30% of nitrate were attributable to the long range transport during ADS periods, respectively.     

１０～３０ｄ延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考———直面混沌

针对大气系统的混沌特性,提出了10~30 d延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考。可预报性问题,实质上是时空尺度问题,10~30 d的预报虽然超出了逐日天气的可预报时限,但仍存在着可预报的分量。以数值模式为基础,阐述了10~30 d延伸期可预报分量的提取方法。在此基础上,提出了针对可预报分量和混沌分量应采用不同的策略和方法。该设想可借鉴利用现有数值模式的变分同化系统,且无需构建新的模式,因此具有可行性。     

Experiments on the reflection coefficients of a detached breakwater in a directional wave field

Results of estimating the directional wave fields in front of a detached breakwater are presented here in this paper. Two of non-phase-locked methods, i.e., the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and the Extended Maximum Entropy Principle Method (EMEP), were adopted for the purpose. In general, the latter outperforms the former. It is shown that the reflection coefficients decrease with increasing distances away from the detached breakwater, and within four wavelengths from the detached breakwater, the rate of the decrease is faster for wave fields having larger directional spreads. When the measuring distance is more than four wavelengths away from the detached breakwaters, the reflection coefficients tend to reach to a constant value. It is shown that, with the use of the non-phase-locked EMEP method, the effective region can be extended, as compared with the results of Huntley and Davidson [J. Waterw. Port Coast. Ocean Eng. 124 (1998) 312].     

页岩气地质调查皖含地1井施工工艺

皖含地1井是在和含巢逆冲推覆构造带中段巢湖背向斜构造带部署实施的一口地质调查井。目的在于获取巢湖-含山-无为地区奥陶系-志留系富有机质页岩的各类地质参数,为本区五峰组-高家边组页岩气资源潜力评价及有利区优选提供地质依据。本文主要阐述了皖含地1井的井区概况、钻探施工技术与施工工艺。施工中结合实际情况进行钻井质量控制,在钻进过程中合理调整钻进参数,有效控制钻井顶角,符合地质设计的目的。并对皖含地1井进行台效分析,为后期的钻探积累了经验。     

柴达木盆地西北古近系-新近系异常高压形成机制分析

柴达木盆地西北(以下简称“柴西北区”)古近系-新近系异常超压普遍存在。对超压的空间分布特征和形成机制的研究是评价该地区油气成藏条件与资源潜力的关键。依据柴西北区钻井实测压力数据及基于等效深度法计算的地层压力结果,对研究区异常高压的平面和剖面分布特征进行分析。在此基础上,结合柴西北区典型钻井泥岩声波时差曲线特征、不同时期沉积速率、各地层岩性特征、有机质生烃潜力及柴西北地区遭受的构造挤压作用,对研究区超压的形成机制进行分析,并对各控制要素在超压形成过程中的贡献进行定量评价。研究结果表明：柴西北区地层超压起始深度位于大约1 500 m,主要发育在古始新统路乐河组-中新统上干柴沟组内,总体上异常高压随深度加深逐渐增大。研究区超压的形成是多种因素综合作用的结果,其中欠压实作用、有机质生烃和构造挤压作用是该区超压形成演化的重要原因。对控制超压形成的各要素定量评价结果显示：欠压实作用是柴西北区超压形成的最重要控制因素,其贡献率高达60%;构造挤压作用次之,其贡献率在20%～30%左右;有机质生烃演化作用对超压形成也有影响,但贡献率相对较小。此外对柴西北区咸湖环境下的盐度分布特征研究初步表明,地层孔隙流体盐度和咸水半咸水环境下沉积的含盐塑性地层对超压的形成和保存也有一定的影响。     

Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO₂ sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.     

气候系统可预报性的全局研究

胞映射方法是对非线性系统进行全局分析的强有力工具。文中基于一个最大简化的地－气耦合模式,引入胞映射全局分析方法,对气候系统的可预报性进行了全局的研究。气候系统存在最大可预报期限,对于超过逐日预报可预报期限后的预报,用胞映射思想证明了平均值的可预报性,并得到了定量的结果。研究表明,耦合机制具有延长可预报期限的作用,观测精度的提高亦可延长可预报期限