PREDICTABILITY LEVELS OF MONTHLY FORECAST BASED ON TIME-AVERAGED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE VARIABLES —A NATURALLY OCCURRING ANALOGUE STUDY

Naturally occurring analogues between the monthly averaged data of 1000,500 and 100 hPa geopotential height and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Oceans during the period January 1956-December 1972 are used to study the potential predictability levels of forecasting the monthly mean ocean/atmosphere variables.It is found that in the ocean-atmosphere system the forecast of geopotential height may be more difficult than SST,and that the predictability level of monthly mean geopotential height anomaly calculated from the corresponding monthly mean SST appears relatively poor,but it can be improved by using the past observational data of monthly mean SST/geopotential fields.     

New aromatic biomarkers and possible maturity indicators found in New Albany Shale extracts

Aromatic hydrocarbons from benzene extracts of New Albany Shale were characterized. A biomarker that has a molecular weight of 546 and a structural configuration consistent with that of an alkyl-aromatic hydrocarbon (C₄₀H₆₆) was tentatively identified. It was found that the relative concentrations of the biomarker are indicative of differing levels of thermal maturity of the shale organic matter. A 40-carbon bicyclic carotenoid (C₄₀H₄₈) is proposed as the geochemical precursor of this biomarker. Thermal maturity of the shale organic matter can also be differentiated by observing differences in “fingerprints” as obtained by field-ionization mass spectrometry on the aromatic hydrocarbon fraction. Using this technique, we found that the more mature shale samples from southeastern Illinois contain more low molecular weight extractable aromatic hydrocarbons and the less mature shale samples from northwestern Illinois contain more high molecular weight extractable aromatic hydrocarbons. It was demonstrated that field-ionization and tandem mass spectrometric techniques through fingerprint and individual compound identification, are useful for shale aromatic hydrocarbon fraction characterization and for thermal maturation interpretation.     

数值模式初值的敏感性程度对四维同化的影响

用著名的Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统作了共轭变分同化的数值试验。发现随着模式对初值敏感性程度的增加，用这种方法得到和模式相协调的初始场愈来愈困难，直到某些情况下的完全失败。这表明四维同化和可预报期限是联系在一起的。另一方面，随着方程不精确程度的增加，变分同化的效果愈来愈差，直到所做的预报无任何意义可言。如果在做变分同化的同时对模式参数也进行反演，就可使得基于Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统所做的预报效果大大提高。     

甘肃“5·5"黑风暴小波分析

用小波变换理论对１９９３年春季甘肃省河西走廊地区一场特大黑风暴进行了分析。结果表明，小波分析能比较客观地将时间序列中不同时间尺度的振动分离开，使我们能清楚地看到黑风暴中的中尺度扰动。     

Possible Evidence of Long-Term Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere

We have obtained the temporal correlation function, Q(t), from time sequences of Caii K filtergrams and Dopplergrams from Antarctica, Taiwan Oscillation Network (TON) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Q(t) gives the time evolution of the pattern under examination, supergranulation in this case. It has been found that Q(t) shows oscillatory signals of both 5-min and long-term periods. The 5-min oscillations are suppressed by averaging the images over 10 min. An exponential decay curve which represents the lifetime trend of supergranules, is fitted to Q(t) and subtracted out. The Q(t) residuals thus obtained contain the oscillatory component and are then subjected to a periodogram analysis. Significant periodicities in the range of 1.4–10 hours have been noted. The causes of these oscillations are not fully known at present, but the instrumental and atmospheric factors can be ruled out, pointing to solar origin. Various possibilities are discussed. Some of the observed periodicities may be considered as probable candidates for long-term oscillations in the Sun, such as the elusive gravity modes.     

Feasible groundwater allocation scenarios for land subsidence area of Pingtung Plain,Taiwan

Land subsidence basically is the deprivation of water and earth resources, further inducing social and economical undesirable impact. The principal direction of land subsidence prevention is properly management of groundwater. However groundwater management should be developed on the basis of combined technical, economical, social and institutional approaches to management that reflect local conditions and can be adapted and evolved. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to make land subsidence prevention strategies for government to refer. Before year 1969, agriculture was the main land utilization business in Pingtung Plain. Due to intensive development of fish breeding after 1970’s, the aquaculture area along the estuary region of Pingtung Plain have been dramatically increased. Groundwater thus became the main fresh water resource for aquacultural water diluting and flushing because of the insufficiency in surface water supply. The uncontrolled development of groundwater resources has led to undesirable effects, especially in the south where aquaculture is concentrated. These effects are land subsidence, saline water intrusion, lowering of water tables and reductions in well yields. Government stressed on the improvement of breeding technology in the past, which mainly focused on the water quality control in order to raise the culture density, however, it neglected the impact to the environment and quantity control. This paper promotes a reasonable aquacultural water consumption policy aims at finding out the most suitable breeding species considering water consumption and its reasonable breeding area under the premise that it will not depress the original profit of aquatic products trading. Published in Russian in Vodnye Resursy, 2007, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2007, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 281–289. The text was submitted by the authors in English.     

Post-earthquake investigation on several geosynthetic-reinforced soil retaining walls and slopes during the Ji-Ji earthquake of Taiwan

This paper gives an overview on the application of geosynthetic-reinforced soil structures in Taiwan. Taiwan has an unique topography and geotechnical conditions that rendered a less conservative and more challenging design compared to that of North America, Europe and Japan. The Ji-Ji (Chi-Chi) earthquake of 1999 gave an opportunity to examine the behavior of reinforced soil structures. The performance of several modular-block reinforced soil retaining walls and reinforced slopes at the vicinity of the fault was evaluated. Reinforced structures performed better than unreinforced soil retaining walls. The failure cases were highlighted and the cause of failure was identified. The lack of seismic design consideration could be a major cause of failure. The compound failure mode, the inertia force of the blocks, and the connection stiffness and strength relative to the large dynamic earth pressure, were among major items that would warrant further design consideration.     

高密度电阻率法探测岩溶的应用研究

应用高密度电阻率法查清三家子地段输油管道地下岩溶的分布状态，解决了岩溶对输油管道影响的问题。     

模拟磁带记录仪MCD—3和解调器CBY—2的改装及其在工程地震上的应用

本文主要介绍模拟碰带记录地震仪MCD—3及其解调器CBY—2系列的一种行之有效的改进法。该方案配以IBM—PC/XT计算机硬软件,能实现宽频多道数字采集与处理。改装结果在工程地震方面获得广泛的应用,取得明显的经济效果。     

旱作地膜小麦玉米带田一膜两用热效应研究

旱作地膜小麦—玉米带田一膜两用技术热效应显著，可提高地温２—６℃，保证了小麦安全越冬，促进了作物早发。热资源利用率高达０．９９７，比单作提高２５％—４０％，变作物一年一熟为一年两熟。