Risk-based drought early warning system in reservoir operation

This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations.     

Acoustic Imaging of Solar Active Regions – (Invited Review)

Acoustic imaging is a new method to construct the acoustic signal at a point on the solar surface or in the solar interior with the signals measured at the solar surface. The constructed signals contain both intensity information and phase information. The intensity is computed by summing the squared amplitude of the constructed signal over time. The phase of constructed signals can be studied by the cross-correlation function between the time series constructed with ingoing waves and outgoing waves. The location of the envelope peak of the cross-correlation function and the phase of the cross-correlation function contain different information on the physical conditions of the plasma along the wave path. From the constructed signals, one can form the two-dimensional outgoing intensity map, absorption map, phase-shift map, and envelope-shift map of a target region at different focal depths. The perturbed physical conditions caused by the magnetic fields of active regions manifest in these maps. The outgoing intensity is lower in magnetic regions than the quiet Sun. The group travel time and phase travel time are smaller in magnetic regions than in the quiet Sun. In this paper, we review the studies of active regions, including emerging flux regions, with acoustic imaging.     

生油岩评价专家系统研究

生油岩评价专家系统(SREES)的建立是将有关地质学家的理论方法和经验知识进行系统总结,以先进的人工智能技术在计算机上实现,使生油评价分析工作达到专家水平,从而提高评价结果的置信度,更好地指导油气勘探工作。整个系统采用了自顶向下、面向目标的程序设计方法,使用C语言在Micro VAX机上实现,系统选择了民和盆地作为实验区,验证了系统的评价性能,在计算机系统支持下的陆相油气资源评价方法上作了一次偿试。     

Composition and quality of coals in the Huaibei Coalfield, Anhui, China

The Huaibei Coalfield, Anhui Province, China, is one of the largest coalfields in China. The coals of Permian age are used mainly for power generation. Coal compositions and 47 trace elements of the No. 10 Coal of the Shanxi Formation, the No. 7, 5, and 4 Coals of the Lower Shihezi Formation, and the No. 3 Coal of the Upper Shihezi Formation from the Huaibei Coalfield were studied. The results indicate that the Huaibei coals have low ash, moisture, and sulfur contents, but high volatile matter and calorific value. The ash yield increases stratigraphically upwards, but the volatile matter and total sulfur contents show a slight decrease from the lower to upper seams. Magmatic intrusion into the No. 5 Coal resulted in high ash, volatile matter, and calorific value, but low moisture value in the coal. Among the studied 47 trace elements, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Th, U, V, and Zn are of environmental concerns. Four elements Hg, Mo, Zn, and Sb are clearly enriched in the coals as compared with the upper continental crust.     

环氧树脂/沸石纳米复合材料的制备及表征

提出了一种用原位插入法制取环氧树脂/沸石纳米复合材料的新方法, 详细探讨了钠化、有机化、环氧树脂插入、固化及制备环氧树脂/沸石纳米复合材料的条件, 在实验的基础上确定了最佳条件, 制成了纳米复合材料, 并用XRD和TEM对其结构进行了表征, 发现纳米复合材料的平均粒径在5 0~ 6 0nm之间, 同时力学性能有明显提高, 可用于高性能的工程塑料和高品质的粘合剂.      

Geochemistry of environmentally sensitive trace elements in Permian coals from the Huainan coalfield, Anhui, China

To study the geochemical characteristics of 11 environmentally sensitive trace elements in the coals of the Permian Period from the Huainan coalfield, Anhui province, China, borehole samples of 336 coals, two partings, and four roof and floor mudstones were collected from mineable coal seams. Major elements and selected trace elements were determined by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), and hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry (HAAS). The depositional environment, abundances, distribution, and modes of occurrence of trace elements were investigated. Results show that clay and carbonate minerals are the principal inorganic constituents in the coals. A lower deltaic plain, where fluvial channel systems developed successively, was the likely depositional environment of the Permian coals in the Huainan coalfield. All major elements have wider variation ranges than those of Chinese coals except for Mg and Fe. The contents of Cr, Co, Ni, and Se are higher than their averages for Chinese coals and world coals. Vertical variations of trace elements in different formations are not significant except for B and Ba. Certain roof and partings are distinctly higher in trace elements than underlying coal bench samples. The modes of occurrence of trace elements vary in different coal seams as a result of different coal-forming environments. Vanadium, Cr, and Th are associated with aluminosilicate minerals, Ba with carbonate minerals, and Cu, Zn, As, Se, and Pb mainly with sulfide minerals.     

数值天气预报中的两类反问题及一种数值解法──理想试验

针对数值预报中产生误差的两个来源提出了数值预报中存在着两类反问题。并在一维的非线性平流扩散方程上，用共轭方程的解法对提出的两类反问题作出了理想场的数值试验。试验结果表明，这种解反问题的方法非常有效。它利用＂观测资料＂所包含的时间演变的信息确定出了方程的初值或方程中误差订正项的空间分布状况。而且无论对＂观测资料＂的超定还是欠定都能得出较有意义的结果。因而有很大的利用前景。     

FURTHER STUDY ON THE PROPERTIES OF OPERATORS OF ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS AND THE EXISTENCE OF ATTRACTOR

The equivalent operator equation is derived from the full primitive nonlinear equations of theatmospheric motion and the properties and physical senses of the operators are studied.In theinfinite dimensional Hilbert space,the global asymptotic behavior of the atmosphere system withthe non-stationary external forcing is studied under the assumption of the bounded externalforcing.The existence theorems of the global absorbing set and the global attractor are obtained.Thus,the conclusions deduced from the large-scale atmosphere(Li and Chou 1996 a;1996 b)areextended to the general atmosphere.     

非线性大气动力学的进展

总结了自新中国成立以来中国科学院大气物理研究所在非线性大气动力学领域的进展,其中主要介绍了在非线性适应过程、非线性稳定与不稳定、全局分析理论、可预报性、低阶谱方法与多平衡态动力学、非线性波动、波流相互作用、阻塞高压非线性动力学、中小尺度非线性动力学等几个方面的研究成果及最新进展.     

气候系统可预报性的全局研究

胞映射方法是对非线性系统进行全局分析的强有力工具。文中基于一个最大简化的地－气耦合模式,引入胞映射全局分析方法,对气候系统的可预报性进行了全局的研究。气候系统存在最大可预报期限,对于超过逐日预报可预报期限后的预报,用胞映射思想证明了平均值的可预报性,并得到了定量的结果。研究表明,耦合机制具有延长可预报期限的作用,观测精度的提高亦可延长可预报期限