A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea

Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.     

Satellite and ground observations for large-scale air pollution transport in the Yellow Sea region

Large-scale air pollution transport (LSAPT) in the Yellow Sea region and their inflow onto the Korean Peninsula were observed through satellite images and ground measurements. LSAPT includes regional continental air-masses saturated with pollutants originating from China and subsequently landing on or passing through the Korean Peninsula. It is also possible to identify the distribution and transport patterns of LSAPT over the Yellow Sea. The ground concentrations for PM10, PM2.5 and CO measured at Cheongwon, located in the centre of south Korea, were compared with NOAA satellite images. Notably, the episodes observed of the LSAPT show a PM2.5 to PM10 ratio of 74% of the daily maximum concentrations. However, cases of duststorms were clearly distinguished by much higher PM10 concentrations and a ratio of 30% of PM2.5 to PM10 for daily maximum concentrations. For the episode on January 27, 2006, the inflow of a regionally polluted continental air-mass into the central and southwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula was observed sequentially at various ground observatories as well as by satellite. The north airflow dissipated the clouds over Mt. Halla on Jeju Island and further downwind, reducing air pollution and creating a von Kármán vortex.     

Initiation of arc magmatism in an embryonic continental rifting zone of the southernmost part of Okinawa Trough

The Okinawa Trough is a young, intracontinental backarc basin that has formed behind the Ryukyu arc–trench system since late Miocene time. In the Southernmost Part of the Okinawa Trough (SPOT), a cluster of active submarine volcanoes delineates a volcanic belt, which is located only ∼100 km above the Wadati–Benioff zone. We report herein new major and trace element data for the SPOT volcanic rocks. These rocks show a compositional range from medium-K andesite to rhyolite. Their geochemical characteristics are similar to those of pre-backarc rifting volcanic rocks from the central Ryukyu arc, and different from those of backarc basin lavas from the Middle Okinawa Trough and the post-backarc rifting Ryukyu arc volcanics. Therefore, despite being topographically contiguous with the rest of the Trough, the SPOT that developed in the Quaternary is not a simple backarc basin but instead an embryonic rift zone in which early arc volcanism occurs as a result of the Ryukyu subduction.     

The effects of intermediate principle stress on the mechanical behavior of transversely isotropic rocks: Insights from DEM simulations

The discrete element method (DEM) is used to study the response of anisotropic rocks under true triaxial testing. Numerical samples of seven different bedding orientations (β = 0^o, 15^o, 30^o, 45^o, 60^o, 75^o, and 90^o) are created. Six series of test simulations (σ₃ = 0, 10, 30, 50, 70, and 100 MPa) are conducted on each sample, with five different σ₂ values, varied from σ₃ to σ₁. The effects of anisotropy and intermediate stress on the peak strength, brittle-ductile transition, and degree of anisotropy are subsequently explained through underlying micromechanics. Results show a “fan-shaped” variation of the peak strength with σ₂, displaying an ascending-then-descending trend. An increasing brittleness with σ₂ is observed at lower confining pressures for all, but medium anisotropy angles. For higher confining pressures, increasing ductility with σ₂ is seen for every anisotropy angle. A U-shaped variation of peak strength with anisotropy angles is noted that flattens under high intermediate stress. Hence, for numerical models of Posidonia shale under normalized σ₂ higher than 0.76, the anisotropy effect is found to be negligible. Micromechanical analyses reveal that the stress asymmetry, suppression of weak plane action as well as the localization and coalescence of microcracks in the intact rock matrix, due to σ₂, are the contributors towards the obtained trends. Since existing failure criteria do not weigh in these features in geotechnical assessments, this paper helps future studies by providing a deeper understanding of these effects and a comprehensive data set for the analyses of anisotropic rocks under polyaxial stress conditions.     

Low‐temperature thermochronology of francolite: Insights into timing of Dead Sea Transform motion

Cambrian siliciclastic sequences along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) margin in southern Israel and southern Jordan host both detrital fluorapatite [D‐apatite] and U‐rich authigenic carbonate‐fluorapatite (francolite) [A‐apatite]. D‐apatite and underlying Neoproterozoic basement apatite yield fission‐track (FT) data reflecting Palaeozoic–Mesozoic sedimentary cycles and epeirogenic events, and dispersed (U–Th–Sm)/He (AHe) ages. A‐apatite, which may partially or completely replace D‐apatite, yields an early Miocene FT age suggesting formation by fracturing, hydrothermal fluid ascent and intra‐strata recrystallisation, linked to early DST motion. The DST, separating the African and Arabian plates, records ~105 km of sinistral strike‐slip displacement, but became more transtensional post‐5 Ma. Helium diffusion measurements on A‐apatite are consistent with thermally activated volume diffusion, indicating Tc ~52 to 56 ± 10°C (cooling rate 10°C/Ma). A‐apatite AHe data record Pliocene cooling (~35 to 40°C) during the transtensional phase of movement. This suggests that timing of important milestones in DST motion can be discerned using A‐apatite low‐temperature thermochronology data alone.     

Impact of climate change on the persistent turbidity issue of a large dam reservoir in the temperate monsoon region

Long-term discharge of turbid water from reservoirs after flood events is a major socioenvironmental problem in many countries, including Korea. This study used a suite of mathematical models to simulate the fate of turbidity flows in the Soyanggang Reservoir in Korea, an important source of drinking water for the Seoul Capital Area, in response to extreme floods based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 climate scenario. It evaluated the effectiveness of the selective withdrawal facility (SWF), installed recently in the Soyanggang Reservoir to control persistent turbidity. Extreme floods with a maximum daily inflow rate greater than the historical maximum observed in 2006 were projected to occur four times in this century. The fate and transport of turbidity flows were highly influenced by both the thermal stability of the reservoir and the season in which the flood event occurred. Thus, SWF operations should consider the timing of extreme events (i.e., the imminence of the autumn turnover) to mitigate the impact of high turbidity on the water supply and downstream ecosystem. It was found to be ineffective under extreme events if these occurred in two consecutive years. Current reservoir operations, which rely heavily on the SWF, are likely to be inadequate to overcome the negative effects of extreme-turbidity events on reliably providing safe water supplies. Coping with the worst event expected to occur in the future would require additional countermeasures such as bypassing high-turbidity water.     

Detailed surface co-seismic displacement of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in western Taiwan and implication of fault geometry in the shallow subsurface

The northern segment of the Chelungpu Fault shows an unusually large co-seismic displacement from the event of the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in western Taiwan. Part of the northern segment near the Fengyuan City provides an excellent opportunity for characterizing active thrust-related structures due to a dense geodetic-benchmark network. We reproduced co-seismic deformation patterns of a small segment of this Chelungpu Fault using 924 geodetic benchmarks. According to the estimated displacement vectors, we identified secondary deformations, such as local rigid-block rotation and significant shortening within the hanging wall. The data set also allows us to determine accurately a 3D model of the thrust fault geometry in the shallow subsurface by assuming simple relations between the fault slip, and the horizontal and vertical displacements at the surface. The predicted thrust geometry is in good agreement with borehole data derived from two drilling sites close to the study area. The successful prediction supports our assumptions of rigid displacement and control of displacement in the hanging wall by the fault geometry being useful first approximations.     

Variation and uncertainty in the predicted flowering dates of cherry blossoms using the CMIP5 climate change scenario

In this study, we analyzed changes in the predicted flowering date (PFD) for cherry blossom trees under changing climate conditions by simulating the PFDs for six sites on the Korean Peninsula between 1981 and 2010. The spatial downscaled climate data from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenarios of 30 global climate models (GCMs) were used in the analysis. Here, we present the range of uncertainty in the PFDs, which were calculated by comparing the simulated PFDs to the observed flowering dates. We determined that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of PFDs from individual GCMs, at 7-15 days, were greater in range than those of the mean PFDs from multiple GCMs, at 7-8 days. During three future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, the standard deviations (SD), the interquartile ranges (IQRs), and the relative changes in the mean predicted flowering dates (MPFDs) were calculated to quantify the uncertainty levels inherent from the climate scenarios of multiple GCMs. Distinctive changes in the SDs and IQRs of MPFD were found among the analyzed sites. The SDs increased with time between each future period in Seoul, Incheon, and Jeonju, whereas those in Daegu, Busan, and Mokpo decreased with time. In addition, the IQRs increased with time at Seoul, Incheon, Jeonju, and Daegu but not at Busan and Mokpo. The relative changes in the MPFDs at all six sites became greater with time toward the year 2100. Therefore, combining multiple GCM scenarios may not contribute largely to reduce the uncertainty in the PFDs under changing climate conditions, although it may be useful in quantifying the uncertainty in order to make better decisions based on more accurate information.     

Ecotoxicological evaluation of sewage sludge using bioluminescent marine bacteria and rotifer

Bioassay using the marine bacteria,Vibrio fischeri and rotifer,Brachionus plicatilis, and chemical analyses were conducted to assess the toxicity of the various sewage sludges, one of the major ocean dumped materials in the Yellow Sea of Korea. Sludge elutriates extracted by filtered seawater were used to estimate the ecotoxicity of the sludge. Chemical characterization included the analyses of organic contents, heavy metals, and persistent organic pollutants in sludge. Bacterial bioluminescent inhibition (15 min), rotifer mortality (24 hr) and rotifer population growth inhibition (48 hr) assay were conducted to estimate the sludge toxicity. EC50 15 min (inhibition concentration of bioluminescence after 15 minutes exposed) values by Microtox® bioassay clearly revealed different toxicity levels depending on the sludge sources. Highest toxicity for the bacteria was found with the sludge extract from dyeing waste and followed by industrial waste, livestock waste, and leather processing waste. Clear toxic effects on the bacteria were not found in the sludge extract from filtration bed sludge and rural sewage sludge. Consistent with Microtox® results, rotifer neonate mortality and population growth inhibition test also showed highest toxicity in dyeing waste and low in filtration bed and rural sewage sludge. High concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals were measured in the samples from the industrial wastes, leather processing plant waste sludge, and urban sewage sludge. However, there was no significant correlation between pollutant concentration levels and the toxicity values of the sludge. This suggests that the ecotoxicity in addition to the chemical analyses of various sludge samples must be estimated before release of potential harmful waste in the natural environment as part of an ecological risk assessment.