基于临近相似性考虑的犯罪热点密度图预测准确性比较——以DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪为例

在无时空考虑的密度估计算法基础上,分别加入了案件点之间的时间临近相似性、空间临近相似性和时空临近相似性的考虑,利用DP半岛2006~2007年的街头抢劫犯罪数据为基础计算无时空临近相似性、时间临近相似性、空间临近相似性和时空临近相似性4种不同算法所得到的犯罪热点图,并以之预测2008年的街头抢劫。通过Natural breaks（Jenks）分级方法和等比例面积选取两种方式来划定热点区域进行预测并进行PAI指数得分比较,结果表明时空临近相似性的密度估计算方法在犯罪预测的优势比较显著。     

陆海统筹背景下浙江省填海造地与土地管理制度衔接问题与对策探析

填海造地项目海域管理和土地管理衔接不充分问题由来已久,已成为海洋管理中的痛点和难点。文章对浙江省在填海造地项目换发土地使用权证书、规划与用途管制、使用金征收等方面的衔接制度和实践经验开展梳理分析、调查研究,剖析存在的问题,提出管理建议。研究表明,填海造地与土地管理衔接的主要问题为：换发土地使用权证书所需土地管理指标配套不足;海域和土地权属价值不一致;规划、用途管制衔接不充分;使用金征收标准不统一。为规范填海造地与土地管理的衔接,提出建议：统筹陆海规划和用途管制;建立填海项目指标(计划)管理制度;探索海域使用权价值实现形式;完善海域和土地使用金衔接制度;推进海域土地使用权联合招拍挂出让。本研究可为相关政策制定提供参考。     

低效用海评价指标体系构建研究——以浙江省普陀区填海用海为例

本文旨在针对当前海域节约集约利用的要求下,缺乏低效用海客观评价体系的现状。采用层次分析法和德尔菲专家打分法等技术,在DPSIR框架下,从指标选取、权重设立以及综合评价等方面构建低效用海评价指标体系,并在浙江省普陀区进行应用示范。结果显示,普陀区41个填海项目中,有17个项目评价等级为优,有4个评价等级为良好。等级为一般和较差的项目各10个,占评价项目48.7%。这表明普陀区填海项目中批而未填、填而未建或闲置用海情况较为明显。本研究在指标体系构建和实际应用方面具有创新性和先进性,对于低效用海的节约集约利用具有一定的实际意义和应用价值。     

Retrieval of middle and upper atmospheric wind based on non-full circular fringe recorded by Fabry-Perot Inteferometer

Fabry-Perot Interferometer(FPI) has been used widely for wind measurements of the middle and upper atmosphere.To date, most of FPIs have been based on full-closed circular fringe, which needs 15–25 min to obtain a group of wind velocity(zonal and meridional). However, it is hard to improve the temporal resolution because full-closed circular fringe in several directions cannot be easily imaged onto the same Charge-Coupled Device(CCD) with enough airglow intensity. In this paper, a data processing method is proposed for non-full circular fringe of FPI, which can support CCD with enough area of observations in several directions simultaneously. The method is focused on the center determination of non-full fringe. It includes radial cross-section, peak coordinate determination, and center calculation. Based on the calculated center, the fringe is annular summed. Then its radius is determined subsequently using Gaussian fitting. Finally, the wind is retrieved from the fringe radius. For validation, fringes from two ground-based FPIs were used, which are deployed in Kelan(38.71°N, 111.58°E) and Xinglong(40.40°N, 117.59°E) in China. The results retrieved from non-full fringes of FPIs were compared with that from full-closed circular fringe. The averaged wind deviation between them demonstrates reasonable difference with 5.38 ms~-(1) for 892.0 nm airglow emission, 5.81 ms~-(1) for 630.0 nm emission, and 3.03 ms~-(1) for 557.7 nm emission. Besides, wind results of Xinglong FPI are compared roughly with measurements of meteor radar which is deployed in Ming Tombs of Beijing(40.3°N,116.2°E). Good agreement demonstrates that this method is robust enough for FPI wind retrieval of mesosphere and thermosphere.     

汶川地震同震滑坡物质在震区的滞留和运移及其对龙门山地形演化的影响

2008年M_W7.9汶川地震导致龙门山断裂发生强烈地壳变形,同时引发的巨量同震滑坡加速了该地区的地表剥蚀和河流侵蚀.然而,目前尚缺少系统的数据定量研究滑坡物质的运移以及河流侵蚀速率随时间的演化规律,这些对理解龙门山前缘物质的再分配以及强震对活动造山带地形塑造的作用至关重要.为此,本研究在汶川地震后的6年间,对震区沱江上游3条支流湔江、石亭江、绵远河流域进行了多期次的定点现代河沙采样.通过系统测量河沙中的石英¹⁰Be浓度,并与震前已发表的数据进行对比,发现如下基本特点：（1）震后河沙¹⁰Be浓度均有明显降低,表明同震滑坡物质对河沙的稀释作用;（2）震后河流对河沙的运移量增加为震前的1.3~18.5倍,因此震后龙门山地区侵蚀速率短期显著增加;（3）初步估计得到汶川地震产生的滑坡物质被完全运移出造山带所需要的时间至少为100~4000年,接近龙门山地区强震复发周期;（4）震间和同震产生的构造变形和地表剥蚀在空间上具有互补性.考虑到地表剥蚀引起的地壳均衡反弹效应,认为类似汶川地震的强震有利于龙门山的隆升.认识震前、震时和震后的地壳变形及侵蚀过程有助于更好地理解单次强震事件对高原边界龙门山地形演化的作用.     

地震油气储层的小样本卷积神经网络学习与预测

地震储层预测是油气勘探的重要组成部分,但完成该项工作往往需要经历多个环节,而多工序或长周期的研究分析降低了勘探效率.基于油气藏分布规律及其在地震响应上所具有的特点,本文引入卷积神经网络深度学习方法,用于智能提取、分类并识别地震油气特征.卷积神经网络所具有的强适用性、强泛化能力,使之可以在小样本条件下,对未解释地震数据体进行全局优化提取特征并加以分类,即利用有限的已知含油气井段信息构建卷积核,以地震数据为驱动,借助卷积神经网络提取、识别蕴藏其中的地震油气特征.将本方案应用于模型数据及实际数据的验算,取得了预期效果.通过与实际钻井信息及基于多波地震数据机器学习所预测结果对比,本方案利用实际数据所演算结果与实际情况有较高的吻合度.表明本方案具有一定的可行性,为缩短相关环节的周期提供了一种新的途径.     

重力场向下延拓Milne法

重力场向下延拓能够突出局部和浅部的异常信息,分离叠加的异常特征.但是向下延拓通常具有过程不稳定、下延深度小、结果不准确等问题.针对向下延拓所存在的不足,本文利用重力场及其垂向一阶导数,基于辛普森(Simpson)求积公式,推导出重力场向下延拓米尔尼(Milne)公式.将本文向下延拓方法应用于模型数据,向下延拓模型结果及误差曲线表明,相对于向下延拓快速傅里叶变换(FFT)法和积分迭代法,向下延拓Milne法的深度更大,相对误差更小;相对模型值,向下延拓Milne法能够获得稳定且准确的结果.对加拿大乃查科(Nechako)盆地地区实测航空重力数据进行本文方法向下延拓验证,处理结果表明,相对于实测异常,本文方法向下延拓结果能够很好还原实测数据,并且在进一步向下延拓中反映原始异常的趋势,增强局部和细小异常信息.     

不规则波下船舶运动响应特征数值分析

针对不规则波浪作用下Wigley型船的运动响应问题进行了系统的研究,采用统计学方法深入探讨了船舶不规则运动幅值和响应周期的分布规律,并通过傅里叶变换对船舶运动响应进行了频谱特征分析。结果表明,船舶横摇方向与升沉和纵摇方向随机运动的响应特征有显著差异。在升沉与纵摇方向,波浪谱峰频率远离自振频率,前十分之一大振幅运动对应周期离散性较小,基本稳定在波浪谱峰周期附近,但小振幅运动周期分布离散性较大,频谱分析指出船舶升沉与纵摇运动响应频谱在波浪谱峰频率附近出现明显峰值。而在横摇方向,波浪谱峰频率与自振频率相耦合,不同振幅的横摇运动响应周期均稳定在自振周期附近,且周期离散性较小,频谱分析也表明横摇运动响应频谱主要集中于船舶运动自振频率附近。     

THREE-DIMENSIONAL DEFORMATION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE

In order to analyze 3-dimensional movement and deformation characteristics and seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone, we inverted for dynamic fault locking and slip deficit rate of the fault using the GPS horizontal velocity field of 1999-2007 and 2013-2017 in Sichuan-Yunnan region, and calculated annual vertical change rate to analyze the vertical deformation characteristics of the fault using the cross-fault leveling data during 1980-2017 locating on the Xianshuihe fault. The GPS inversion results indicate that in 1999-2007, the southeastern segment of the fault is tightly locked, the middle segment is less locked, and the northwestern segment is basically in creeping state. In 2013-2017, the southeastern segment of the fault is obviously weekly locked, in which only a patch between Daofu-Bamei is locked, and the northwestern segment is still mostly in creeping state, in which only a patch at southeastern Luhuo is slightly locked from surface to 10km depth. The cross-fault leveling data show that annual vertical change rate of the Zhuwo, Gelou, Xuxu and Goupu sites on the northwestern segment is larger, which means vertical movement is relatively active, and annual vertical change rate of the Longdengba, Laoqianning, and Zheduotang sites on the southeastern segment is small, which means the fault is locked, and the vertical movement changes little before and after the Wenchuan earthquake. Combining with the 3-dimensional movement and deformation, seismic activity and Coulomb stress on the Xianshuihe Fault, we consider the seismic risk of the southeastern segment is larger, and the Wenchuan earthquake reduced the far-field sinistral movement and the fault slip deficit rate, which may reduce the stress and strain accumulation rate and relieve the seismic risk of the southeastern segment.     

DATABASE OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY 2015 GORKHA(NEPAL) MW7.8 EARTHQUAKE

In this study, a detailed database of landslides triggered by the 25 April 2015 Gorkha (Nepal)M_W7.8 earthquake is constructed based on visual interpretation of pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite images and field reconnaissance. Results show the earthquake triggered at least 47 200 landslides, which have a NWW direction spatial distribution, similar with the location and strike of the seismogenic fault. The landslides are of a total area about 110km² and an oval distribution area about 35 700km². On the basis of a scale relationship between landslide area (A)and volume (V), V=1.314 7×A^{1.208 5}, the total volume of the coseismic landslides is estimated to be about 9.64×10⁸m³. In the oval landslide distribution area, the landslide number density, area density, and volume density were calculated and the results are 1.32km^-2, 0.31%, and 0.027m, respectively. This study provides a detailed and objective inventory of landslides triggered by the Gorkha earthquake, which provides very important and essential basic data for study of mechanics of coseismic landslides, spatial pattern, distribution law, and hazard assessment. In addition, the landslide database related to an individual earthquake also provides an important earthquake case in a subduction zone for studying landslides related to multiple earthquakes from a global perspective.