Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.     

Assessing Cryptic Invasion State: Fine-Scale Genetic Analysis of Ciona savignyi Population in Putative Native Habitat of the Korean Coast

The solitary ascidian, Ciona savignyi (Ascidiacea, Enterogona) is a notorious marine invader still expanding its habitat range worldwide. This species is considered native to the North West Pacific, but its indigeneity in Korean coastal waters has been questioned because of outdated taxonomic records and its inhabitation of oceanographically marginal areas. To clarify their cryptic invasion state, 247 individual C. savignyi samples were collected from 12 harbors and marinas on the Korean coast, and a 744 bp region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene was sequenced and analyzed. Our analyses of population genetic structure and demographic history provided considerable pieces of evidence supporting their long-term establishment on the Korean coasts: differentiated population genetic structure, sequentially arrayed star-shape haplotype network, neutrality test results of past population expansions, and post-glacial colonization pattern of demography. Consequently, we concluded that C. savignyi populations on the Korean Coast are indigenous rather than exotic. These results could be used as reference data for further phylogeo graphic and demographic studies of problematic Ciona species, and to clarify and resolve similar cryptic invasion states of the other Korean coastal marine organisms. This study is the first to resolve the cryptic in vasion state of Korean marine organisms using genetic analysis.

     

Rebuttal to: “A bibliometric review on carbon cycling research during 1993–2013” by Zhi et al. (Environ Earth Sci 2015, 74(7): 6065–6075)

A research paper’s contribution exists not only in its originality and creativity but also in its continuity and development for research that follows. The reference section can play a key role to researchers who are interested in a paper’s statement or who would like to follow the study or find useful information from the paper. This section is as important as the core of a paper; however, it was easily to be ignored by the author. This comment offered information for citing original idea of methods, figures, and tables which Zhi et al. (Environ Earth Sci 74(7):6065–6075, 2015) used. It is also suggested that an author not only must be creative but also must be careful while writing in order to publish more valuable and papers more worthy of reading.     

Soft‐sediment deformation structures in Cretaceous non‐marine deposits of southeastern Gyeongsang Basin,Korea: Occurrences and origin

A variety of soft‐sediment deformation structures formed during or shortly after deposition occurs in the Cretaceous Seongpori and Dadaepo Formations of the southeastern Gyeongsang Basin exposed along coastal areas of southeastern Korean Peninsula for 0.5–2 km. These are mostly present in a fluvial plain facies, with interbedded lacustrine deposits. In this study, the features of different kinds of soft‐sediment deformation structures have been interpreted on the basis of sedimentology of structure‐bearing deposits, comparison with normal sedimentary structures, timing and mechanism of deformation, and triggering mechanisms. The soft‐sediment deformation structures can be classified into four morphological groups: (i) load structures (load casts, ball‐and‐pillow structures); (ii) soft‐sediment intrusive structures (dish‐and‐pillars, clastic dykes, sills); (iii) ductile disturbed structures (convolute folds, slump structures); and (iv) brittle deformation structures (syndepositional faulting, dislocated breccia). The most probable triggering mechanisms resulting in these structures were seismic shocks. These interpretations are based on the following field observations: (i) location of the study area within tectonically active fault zone reactivated several times during the Cretaceous; (ii) deformation structures confined to single stratigraphic levels; (iii) lateral continuity and occurrences of various soft‐sediment deformation structures in the deformed level over large areas; (iv) absence of depositional slope to indicate gravity sliding or slumping; and (v) similarity to the structures produced experimentally. The soft‐sediment deformation structures in the study areas are thus interpreted to have been generated by seismic shocks with an estimated magnitude of M > 5, representing an intermittent record of the active tectonic and sedimentary processes during the development and evolution of two formations from the late Early Cretaceous to the Late Cretaceous.     

Formation and Movement of the ESIW as Modeled by MICOM

The presence of the minimum salinity and oxygen-rich East Sea Intermediate Water (ESIW) off Korean coast has raised many questions about its origin and movement. This study attempts to answer these questions in the context of numerical model. For this, the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model is used with surface and inflow boundary conditions based on available data. Model results show that the ESIW forms most distinctly off Vladivostok, where the center of doming structure is observed, and moves southward along Korean coast forming a large cyclonic gyre around the doming. The renewed ESIW has the character of minimum potential vorticity common to usual mode waters. These results are compatible with various indications made in previous observational and theoretical studies. However, it is not known whether the doming structure is a result of convection or the latter is favored by the former. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Freeze thaw cycles in Toronto, Canada in a changing climate

Summary Freeze thaw cycles are examined in Toronto Canada. Using data from 1960 to 1989 for three Toronto area weather stations, trends in freeze thaw activity, the relationship to mean monthly temperature and projections of freeze thaw activity are examined. For downtown Toronto the annual frequency of freeze thaw cycles is decreasing significantly, most notably in the shoulder months of October and April. At the Pearson International Airport and the Toronto Island Airport similar annual trends were not found, however there was evidence of decreased freeze thaw activity in April and October. Polynomial curve fitting provided functional relationships between mean monthly temperature and freeze thaw activity. These relationships enabled the assessment of freeze thaw activity under synthetic warming conditions. The results of this analysis show that the warming of the magnitude typically projected for the rest of this century will not likely generate a significant change in the freeze thaw activity although there are indications that the freeze thaw season will contract.     

Field survey of the 1994 Mindoro Island,Philippines tsunami

This is a report of the field survey of the November 15, 1994 Mindoro Island, Philippines, tsunami generated by an earthquake (M=7.0) with a strike-slip motion. We will report runup heights from 54 locations on Luzon, Mindoro and other smaller islands in the Cape Verde passage between Mindoro and Luzon. Most of the damage was concentrated along the northern coast of Mindoro. Runup height distribution ranged 3–4 m at the most severely damaged areas and 2–4 in neighboring areas. The tsunami-affected area was limited to within 10 km of the epicenter. The largest recorded runup value of 7.3 m was measured on the southwestern coast of Baco Island while a runup of 6.1 m was detected on its northern coastline. The earthquake and tsunami killed 62 people, injured 248 and destroyed 800 houses. As observed in other recent tsunami disasters, most of the casualties were children. Nearly all eyewitnesses interviewed described the first wave as a leading-depression wave. Eyewitnesses reported that the main direction of tsunami propagation was SW in Subaang Bay, SE in Wawa and Calapan, NE on Baco Island and N on Verde Island, suggesting that the tsunami source area was in the southern Pass of Verde Island and that the wave propagated rapidly in all directions. The fault plane extended offshore to the N of Mindoro Island, with its rupture originating S of Verde Island and propagating almost directly south to the inland of Mindoro, thereby accounting for the relatively limited damage area observed on the N of Mindoro.