A Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is pre-sented.In the model,the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables,and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshorestructural steel under constant amplitude loading.Furthermore,by using the Monte Carlo simulation tech-nique,the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted.The tests are conducted toverify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.     

Large Eddy Simulation on Interaction Between in-Line and Cross-Flow Oscillation of A Circular Cylinder

This paper discusses numerical results from three-dimensional large eddy simulations of an oscillating cylinder under prescribed movements in uniform flow. Six cases,namely pure in-line,pure cross-flow and two groups of 'Figure of Eight' oscillation patterns are under investigation at Reynolds number Re=24000. The 'Figure of Eight' pattern in each group is with identical shape but opposite orbital directions. The numerical results on hydrodynamic forces,higher order force components,and vortex shedding mode...     

危害后季稻的秋季低温预报方法

本文以农谚为线索,采用多张概率图作为综合因子,用逐步回归的方法试作了危害后季稻的秋季低温预报指标,希望通过这些指标能比较早而准确地预报出秋季低温到来的迟早,供领导部门参考,以便采取措施,避免或减轻低温带来的危害。本指标已在实际中使用四年,预报与实况均符合,取得了一定的服务效果。     

Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets

Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.     

莱州湾地区10万年以来沉积环境变化

本文用热释光测年和地球化学标志法研究了莱州湾地区沉积环境的变化。石英的375℃热释光峰作为测年基础。岩芯样品的测定结果、反映了自全新世(1.2万年)至晚更新世(11万年)地层的年代特点。实验中来用了Sr/Ba、Rb、Mn/Fe和CaO作为地球化学标志,所得数据经Sheppard方程和Fisher判别处理。在得到的沉积环境变化曲线和大洋δ~(18)O曲线对比中可以看出,本区在十万年以来出现过三次海陆相地层变化序列,其中在距今11—7万年和深度为43.5—60m处,在距今4.6—2.1万年和深度为23—35m处,以及在距今1.1—0.6万年和深度为8—11m处出现过三次海相地层,分别与沧州、献县和黄骅海侵事件相应,并同时受到全球气候变化的控制。     

基本结构有限元算法及大地电磁测深一维连续介质正演

提出了一种新的数值方法——基本结构有限元法. 从经典的伽辽金法（Galerkin method）出发,首先定义了基本结构插值基函数,在此基础上建立了基本结构方程,然后用有限元法进行进一步的具体实现. 该算法被成功应用到大地电磁测深一维连续介质正演计算中. 采用了6种不同的单元插值基函数进行计算,并对计算结果进行了比较和分析.     

碳酸盐岩中有机质组成特征分析

对碳酸盐岩有机质组分进行分类时，有两种分类标准，一是主要采用煤岩学方法，二是采用孢粉学研究方法。本文使用煤岩学方法作为标准，对碳酸盐岩有机质的组成特征进行分析。按有机质来源和有机组分光性和形态等方面差别划分为内源有机质、次生有机质和陆源有机质三类。内源有机质类中分腐泥组和动物有机组，前者主要来源于菌藻类，后者则主要来源于浮游动物有机体；次生有机质中区分出微粒体、有机包裹体、沥青；陆源有机质类分类术语仍沿用煤显微组分分类系统和术语。碳酸盐岩烃源岩的有机质主要为腐泥型，有机质来源以低等藻类为主，且有机质组成特征与碳酸盐岩烃源岩的地质年代有关。碳酸盐岩还存在着差异演化的特征。     

2.5-D DC Resistivity Modeling Considering Flexibility and Accuracy

We highlighted the flexibility of using unstructured mesh together with the local refinement by a resistivity model with complicated topography. The effect of topography is emphasized. Based on this, we calculated a specific class of layered models and found that the accuracy is not always satisfactory by utilizing the standard approach. As an improvement, we employed the layered earth as the reference model to calculate the wavenumbers. The comparison demonstrates that the accuracy is considerably improved...     

海城7．3级地震前地震波动力学特征量的异常变化

本文给出对海城７．３级地震前地震波动力学特征量变化的一些最新研究结果。所研究的地震波包括体波（Ｐ，Ｓ波）、尾波和短周期地脉动三类。特征量有：体波与地脉动的波形时间线性度和空间线性度，平均半周期，频谱的峰值频率、拐角频率、相对频带宽度、相对频谱峰值、高频段的谱线斜率绝对值；尾波的时间熵、振幅比、持续时间、观测与计算持续时间差及其二阶差分、Ｑ＿ｃ值、反映介质混浊度与震源特性的系数ａ＿ｃ等。所得结果表明，三类地震波的上述动力学特征量大都在震前一至半年左右出现、有的在６－１０天乃至一天以内出现过不同形态的阶段性异常变化，因而可看作海城地震的中短期和临震的地震波前兆异常指标。     

A PETROGRAPHICAL STUDY OF THE CHINESE AGALMATOLITES

Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION. The most popular Chinese agalmatolites are Shoushanshih (壽山石), Changhuashih (昌化石), Chingtienshih (青田石) and Kwanglushih (廣綠石). They are named after the names of places, as the name Shoushanshih is from