Extreme value distribution of earthquake magnitude

Probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude is first derived for an unspecified probability distribution of earthquake magnitude. A model for energy release of large earthquakes, similar to that of Adler-Lomnitz and Lomnitz, is introduced from which the probability distribution of earthquake magnitude is obtained. An extensive set of world data for shallow earthquakes, covering the period from 1904 to 1980, is used to determine the parameters of the probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude. Because of the special form of probability distribution of earthquake magnitude, a simple iterative scheme is devised to facilitate the estimation of these parameters by the method of least-squares. The agreement between the empirical and derived probability distributions of maximum earthquake magnitude is excellent.     

Identification and stochastic generation of representative rainfall temporal patterns in Hong Kong territory

In hydrosystem engineering design and analysis, temporal pattern for rainfall events of interest is often required. In this paper, statistical cluster analysis of dimensionless rainfall pattern is applied to identify representative temporal rainfall patterns typically occurred in Hong Kong Territory. For purpose of selecting an appropriate rainfall pattern in engineering applications, factors affecting the occurrence of different rainfall patterns are examined by statistical contingency tables analysis through which the inter-dependence of the occurrence frequency of rainfall patterns with respect to geographical location, rainfall duration and depth, and seasonality is investigated. Furthermore, due to inherent variability of rainfall mass curves or hyetographs within each classified rainfall pattern, a practical procedure to probabilistically generate plausible rainfall patterns is described. The procedure preserves the inherent stochastic features of random dimensionless rainfall hyetograph ordinates, which in general are correlated non-normal multivariate compositional variables.     

Energy dissipation in rocking bridge piers under free vibration tests

This research aims to investigate the dynamic characteristic of rocking bridge columns subjected to quick release loads. Precast columns anchored by unbonded steel bars at the centre of each column can rock on the foundation surface without inducing any residual deformation after earthquakes. The restoring force of columns relies on gravity load from the superstructure and tensile strength in anchor bars. Radiation damping is evaluated through each impact of column rocking. To validate the theoretical damping proposed by previous researchers, four columns were constructed. Research parameters included steel or plastic materials used as rocking interfaces, area of anchor bars, aspect ratio and size effect of columns. Test results revealed that stocky columns slid apparently in the first impact then rocked, but taller columns rocked with minor slips in the entire motion. And freestanding columns slid significantly in the first impact that led to a higher damping. Radiation damping due to impact in the entire motion for all tests was within 5%. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

One-phase-low-pH enzyme induced carbonate precipitation (EICP) method for soil improvement

Enzyme induced carbonate precipitation (EICP) is an emerging soil improvement method using free urease enzyme for urea hydrolysis. This method has advantages over the commonly used microbially induced carbonate precipitation (MICP) process as it does not involve issues related to bio-safety. However, in terms of efficiency of calcium carbonate production, EICP is considered lower than that of MICP. In this paper, a high efficiency EICP method is proposed. The key of this new method is to adopt a one-phase injection of low pH solution strategy. In this so-called one-phase-low-pH method, EICP solution consisting of a mixture of urease solution of pH?=?6.5, urea and calcium chloride is injected into soil. The test results have shown that the one-phase-low-pH method can improve significantly the calcium conversion efficiency and the uniformity of calcium carbonate distribution in the sand samples as compared with the conventional two-phase EICP method. Furthermore, the unconfined compressive strength of sand treated using the one-phase-low-pH method is much higher than that using the two-phase method and the one-phase-low-pH method is also simpler and more efficient as it involves less number of injections.

     

An integrated optimization algorithm for parameter structure identification in groundwater modeling

The inverse problem of parameter structure identification in a distributed parameter system remains challenging. Identifying a more complex parameter structure requires more data. There is also the problem of over-parameterization. In this study, we propose a modified Tabu search for parameter structure identification. We embed an adjoint state procedure in the search process to improve the efficiency of the Tabu search. We use Voronoi tessellation for automatic parameterization to reduce the dimension of the distributed parameter. Additionally, a coarse-fine grid technique is applied to further improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology. To avoid over-parameterization, at each level of parameter complexity we calculate the residual error for parameter fitting, the parameter uncertainty error and a modified Akaike Information Criterion. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, we conduct numerical experiments with synthetic data that simulate both discrete hydraulic conductivity zones and a continuous hydraulic conductivity distribution. Our results indicate that the Tabu search allied with the adjoint state method significantly improves computational efficiency and effectiveness in solving the inverse problem of parameter structure identification.     

Stochastic competitive analysis of hydropower and water supplies within an energy–water nexus

Energy and water are scarce resources and understanding the complicated energy–water nexus is an important issue for effective resource management. The purpose of this research was to analyze the competitive and cooperative relationships involving energy and water production and use. Specifically, tradeoff and integrated management of hydropower generation and water supplies are analyzed for energy–water systems. A Nash–Cournot model was established to analyze strategic behaviors among participants in energy–water systems. In the model, tradeoff analysis and integrated management of hydropower and water supplies were simulated for a reservoir system. In addition, hydropower and thermal power generation in competitive energy markets was examined. A case study of Dajia River reservoirs in the Tai-Chung and Chang-Hwa energy–water systems is presented. Dajia River is the second longest river in central Taiwan; the reservoirs system of Dajia River generates hydropower with installed capacity of 1150 MW. Strategic competitive and cooperative behaviors regarding energy–water linkage were quantified in the results. The results show that integrated management of hydropower and water supplies can increase renewable energy production, lower electricity equilibrium price, and decrease carbon dioxide emission.     

Sediment transport trends and cross-sectional stability of a lagoonal tidal inlet on the Central Coast of Vietnam

Lagoonal tidal inlets are a typical morphology of the Central Coast of Vietnam. Recently, navigation channels in these inlets have become increasingly threatened by siltation. This study analyses the relations between sediment distribution and transport trends (using the technique of Sediment Trend Analysis-STA■) in the lagoonal system of the De Gi inlet and then proposes appropriate countermeasures against sand deposition in the navigation channel. The STA identified three types of transport trends in the De Gi inlet, namely dynamic equilibrium, net accretion, and net erosion. Processes associated with the tidal prism have resulted in trends of sediment transport and deposition across the flood and ebb tidal shoals, which maintain a present cross-sectional area of about 1000m^2. However, longshore sediment transport from north to south resulting from northeast waves cause additional sand deposition in the channel. In addition, the effects of refraction associated with a nearby headland and jetty also increase sedimentation. These processes provide the main reasons for sediment deposition in the De Gi inlet. Short term and regular dredging helps to maintain the navigation channel. A system comprised of three jetties (north, south, and weir) is necessary to ensure the longterm cross-sectional stability of the navigation channel.     

Tectonic implications of Mesozoic magmatism to initiation of Cenozoic basin development within the passive South China Sea margin

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the classical example of a non-volcanic passive margin situated within three tectonic plates of the Eurasian,...     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

Regional daily baseflow prediction

The purposes of this study are to identify the bias of applying the analysis of a log–log plot of baseflow and to derive an equation to describe successive regional mean baseflow. The function ?dQ/dt = a Q^b has been used to describe baseflow in many studies that obtain the values of a and b from the log–log plot. According to analysis in this study, the value of 1 can be assigned to b in two boundary conditions, but the parameter a is proved to be related to the depth of water table and starting time of recession and thus different values of a may be found for different recession events. This paper points out that no single regression line can be obtained by plotting all baseflow data on a log–log diagram. Instead, there should be parallel lines, and each for a recession event. It implies that no single set of parameters a and b can be applied to predict baseflow. Thus, a new equation describing the relationship between three successive mean baseflows was derived in this study. The bias in the analysis of the log–log plot and the ability of the derived equation to predict baseflow were verified for five watersheds in Taiwan. Results indicate that the formula of mean baseflow prediction can provide reasonable estimates of flows with a leading time of 6 days. Furthermore, stream flows of the Tonkawa creek watershed in USA were used to verify that using average flows can result in better predictions than using instantaneous flows. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.