Seismic anomalies in the aftershock sequence of November 16, 2000, in Papua New Guinea

The study of seismic anomalies, related both to the temporal trend of aftershock sequences and to the temporal series of mainshocks, is important for an understanding of the physical processes relating to the existence and the characteristics of seismic precursors. The purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the temporal decay of an aftershock sequence. It is realized by means of several parameters. We focused our work on an analysis of the Papua New Guinea seismic sequence that occurred on November 16, 2000. The magnitude of the mainshock is M = 8.2. The observed temporal series of shocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic contribution and a stochastic contribution. If the decay can be modeled as a nonstationary Poisson process where the intensity function is equal to n(t) = K(t + c)^−p + K ₁, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t)Δt, with a standard deviation σ = √n(t)Δt. We observe that there are some variations in seismicity that can be considered as seismic anomalies before the occurrence of a large aftershock. The data, checked according to completeness criteria, come from the website of the USGS NEIC data bank (). The text was submitted by the authors in English.     

Strain rates in the Alpine Mediterranean region: insights from advanced techniques of data processing

Strain rates and Euler poles for various subregions of the Alpine Mediterranean region were calculated by using global navigation satellite system data from permanent stations. The main scope of the study is to compare and analyze strain rate maps that were calculated using different approaches. This area presents a complex tectonic setting due to the interaction of the Eurasian and Nubian plates. The horizontal velocity gradient tensor was computed starting from a new set of site velocities determined by using continuous long-series geodetic data, state-of-the-art antenna calibrations and recomputed precise orbits. Geodesy provides velocities for a sparsely distributed, discrete number of sites, while deformation has a spatially continuous distribution. For this reason, the interpolation method and the geometric approach to the problem play a fundamental role in the estimation of the strain rate field. In the present study, principal deformation axes and principal angle were estimated by applying two different approaches: the Delaunay triangulation and a grid solution. Both methods produce results with broad coherence, providing new information about the deformation throughout the entire study area. Moreover, an evaluation and analysis of Euler poles related to the different velocity patterns, give complementary information to reconstruct the active deformation in the Mediterranean area.     

Probabilistic assessment of structural operational efficiency in emergency limit conditions: the I.OPà.CLE method

One major issue in the aftermath of a strong earthquake is the emergency management, which cannot be guaranteed if the physical components necessary for the operability of the contingency plan are either damaged, unusable or inaccessible. In order to assess the physical efficiency of the emergency system on which a contingency plan is based, the I.OPà.CLE method (Indices for evaluation of the Operational efficiency of Limit Condition Emergency) has been set up by the Italian Civil Protection Department. It is basically aimed at supporting civil protection decision makers in evaluating emergency systems and establishing strategies and priorities concerning strengthening interventions at national, regional or municipality level. The method must be potentially applied to any of the around 8000 municipalities all over Italy, and then it must refer to a minimum information dataset readily available for any municipality. Therefore, I.OPà.CLE has been specifically tailored for the minimum standard information that is provided by the analysis of Limit Condition for Emergency, as formulated in 2012 by the Italian Civil Protection Department. This analysis defines the standard framework of the physical layout of a municipal seismic emergency plan, relying on a limited number of information. Notwithstanding the numerically extensive target and limited amount of information available, the ambition of I.OPà.CLE is to perform simplified analyses without renouncing to rigor in the methodology. The present paper illustrates the analytic formulation of I.OPà.CLE and its capabilities, as well as two real examples. In the conclusion, future upgrading of the model are discussed, even in relation to the availability of further pieces of information.     

A new method of identifying an appropriate distance between independent extreme annual rain events for a 5-min time resolution precipitation data network

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This paper deals with precipitation events, particularly the problem of recognising events individually, of distinguishing one local...     

A re-appraisal of the stratigraphy and volcanology of the Cerro Galán volcanic system,NW Argentina

From detailed fieldwork and biotite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating correlated with paleomagnetic analyses of lithic clasts, we present a revision of the stratigraphy, areal extent and volume estimates of ignimbrites in the Cerro Galán volcanic complex. We find evidence for nine distinct outflow ignimbrites, including two newly identified ignimbrites in the Toconquis Group (the Pitas and Vega Ignimbrites). Toconquis Group Ignimbrites (~5.60–4.51 Ma biotite ages) have been discovered to the southwest and north of the caldera, increasing their spatial extents from previous estimates. Previously thought to be contemporaneous, we distinguish the Real Grande Ignimbrite (4.68 ± 0.07 Ma biotite age) from the Cueva Negra Ignimbrite (3.77 ± 0.08 Ma biotite age). The form and collapse processes of the Cerro Galán caldera are also reassessed. Based on re-interpretation of the margins of the caldera, we find evidence for a fault-bounded trapdoor collapse hinged along a regional N-S fault on the eastern side of the caldera and accommodated on a N-S fault on the western caldera margin. The collapsed area defines a roughly isosceles trapezoid shape elongated E-W and with maximum dimensions 27 × 16 km. The Cerro Galán Ignimbrite (CGI; 2.08 ± 0.02 Ma sanidine age) outflow sheet extends to 40 km in all directions from the inferred structural margins, with a maximum runout distance of ~80 km to the north of the caldera. New deposit volume estimates confirm an increase in eruptive volume through time, wherein the Toconquis Group Ignimbrites increase in volume from the ~10 km³ Lower Merihuaca Ignimbrite to a maximum of ~390 km³ (Dense Rock Equivalent; DRE) with the Real Grande Ignimbrite. The climactic CGI has a revised volume of ~630 km³ (DRE), approximately two thirds of the commonly quoted value.     

Columnar jointing in vapor-phase-altered,non-welded Cerro Galán Ignimbrite,Paycuqui, Argentina

Columnar jointing is thought to occur primarily in lavas and welded pyroclastic flow deposits. However, the non-welded Cerro Galán Ignimbrite at Paycuqui, Argentina, contains well-developed columnar joints that are instead due to high-temperature vapor-phase alteration of the deposit, where devitrification and vapor-phase crystallization have increased the density and cohesion of the upper half of the section. Thermal remanent magnetization analyses of entrained lithic clasts indicate high emplacement temperatures, above 630°C, but the lack of welding textures indicates temperatures below the glass transition temperature. In order to remain below the glass transition at 630°C, the minimum cooling rate prior to deposition was 3.0 × 10⁻³–8.5 × 10⁻²°C/min (depending on the experimental data used for comparison). Alternatively, if the deposit was emplaced above the glass transition temperature, conductive cooling alone was insufficient to prevent welding. Crack patterns (average, 4.5 sides to each polygon) and column diameters (average, 75 cm) are consistent with relatively rapid cooling, where advective heat loss due to vapor fluxing increases cooling over simple conductive heat transfer. The presence of regularly spaced, complex radiating joint patterns is consistent with fumarolic gas rise, where volatiles originated in the valley-confined drainage system below. Joint spacing is a proxy for cooling rates and is controlled by depositional thickness/valley width. We suggest that the formation of joints in high-temperature, non-welded deposits is aided by the presence of underlying external water, where vapor transfer causes crystallization in pore spaces, densifies the deposit, and helps prevent welding.     

Growth rate and climate responses of Pinus pinea L. in Italian coastal stands over the last century

Sensitivity to climate change and anthropogenic disturbance is a typical feature of Mediterranean forests, which grow under dynamic and manipulated environmental conditions. In this study, we examine stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) along the Tyrrhenian coast of Italy to analyse the tree-growth variability on a temporal scale and to evaluate the radial growth response to climate trends over the last century. The analysis of tree ring widths at the decadal and multidecadal scale, which were standardised to remove the age trend, showed primarily significant downward trends and time periods with lower growth rates. Characterised by a clear decline in tree ring widths, the two periods of 20 years from the mid-1920s and the early 1970s appeared to be the least favourables for tree growth. Precipitation was the main factor driving growth, and the effect was cumulative over consecutive years because of the increase in soil water content. Including the current year of ring formation, correlations between decline in precipitation and tree growth were greatest with 3-year precipitation sums. The shifting influence of winter rainfall on tree ring growth toward not significant values during the last decades, together with the lack of significant correlation between the current year’s precipitation and growth decline from the 1970s, might suggest an increasingly dependence on long periods of water supply to utilise the water content stored due to the previous rainy years. The negative effect on tree-growth decline of summer and early-fall temperatures appeared as a forcing influence related to long-term changes in climate rather than high-frequency climate fluctuations.     

On the misinterpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP5 models

The representation of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its relationship with atmospheric blocking and the Atlantic jet stream is investigated in a set of CMIP5 models. It is shown that some state-of-the-art climate models are unable to correctly simulate the physical processes connected to the NAO. This is especially true for models with a strongly underestimated frequency of high-latitude blocking over Greenland. In these models the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of the Euro-Atlantic sector can represent at least three different categories of dominant modes of variability associated with different prevalent regions of blocking occurrence and jet stream displacements. It is therefore possible to show that such “biased NAOs” are connected with different dynamical processes with respect to the canonical NAO seen in observations. Since the NAO is a widely used concept in scientific community, the consequent “dynamical misinterpretation” of the NAO that can result when climate models are analyzed may have important implications for the NAO-related studies. This may be especially relevant for the ones involving climate scenarios, since these modeled NAOs may react differently to greenhouse gas forcing.     

Harkerite from the Alban Hills,Italy

Harkerite, found in metamorphic ejecta of the Alban Hills associated with cuspidine, grossular, phlogopite, vesuvian, biotite, and minor amounts of diopside, aegirinaugite, leucite, magnetite and calcito, shows cubic Laue symmetry m3m, possible space groups Fm3m, F432, F43m, a₀ = 14.82 Å.On the basis of isomorphous replacements suggested by the crystal structure analysis, chemical data may be represented by the formula: Ca₄₈Mg₁₆(AlSi₄O₁₆)₄(BO₃)₁₂(CO₃)₂₀ · 4H₂O. Refractive index n_D = 1.6490.The relations between harkerite from Albano, harkerite from Skye and other known harkerites and sakhaites are discussed.     

Mixed nonlinear regression for modelling historical temperatures in Central–Southern Italy

This paper has exploited, for Central and Southern Italy (Mediterranean Sub-regional Area), an unprecedented historical dataset as an attempt to model seasonal (winter and summer) air temperatures in pre-instrumental time (back to 1500). Combining information derived from proxy–documentary data and large-scale simulation, a statistical downscaling approach in the form of mixed regression model was developed to adapt larger-scale estimations (regional component) to the sub-regional temperature pattern (local component). It interprets local temperature anomalies by means of monthly based Temperature Anomaly Scaled Index in the range ?5 (very cold conditions in June) to 2 (very warm conditions). The modelled response agrees well with the independent data from the validation sample (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, >0.60). The advantage of the approach is not merely increased accuracy in estimation. Rather, it relies on the ability to extract (and exploit) the right information to replicate coherent temperature series in historical times.