Towards an Interpretation of Historical Droughts in Northern Nigeria

Both historical information on sub-Saharan droughts/famines and measured rainfall data from northern Nigeria were analysed. Their parallel existence since 1905 allows famine chronologies to be quantified from the rainfall series. It is found that the most disruptive historical famines occurred when the cumulative deficit of rainfall fell below 1.3 times the standard deviation of long-term mean annual rainfall for a particular place. Thus defined, rainfall droughts matched approximately 90% of the famine events chronicled for northern Nigeria. An attempt is made to utilise information obtained from this matching of events to interpret droughts which occurred before scientific measurements. Difficulties inherent in such interpretation are discussed.     

Constraints of Housing Age and Migration on Residential Mobility

This paper investigates the role of housing age in constraining residential mobility, measured as the percent of households that have moved into their homes in the past 15 months. The leading explanation for why mobility rates differ so much among regions of the United States has been the overall level of growth. The present analysis shows that the growth effect operates through both the newness of population (migration) and the newness of housing available for occupancy by all local residents. The posited explanation for this housing age effect is that progressively older units contain increasingly settled occupants, yielding fewer opportunities for in-movers in areas with older housing. It is empirically demonstrated that households in older housing have lower likelihood of recent mobility even after controlling for age, tenure, migration status, and state location of residence. The analysis reveals the temporal interdependency of mobility, migration, person age, and housing age.     

Application of an optimum design technique for determining the coefficient of consolidation by using piezocone test data

For normally consolidated clay, several researchers have developed a number of theoretical time factors to determine the coefficient of consolidation from piezocone test results. However, depending on assumptions and analytical techniques, it could vary considerably, even for a specific degree of consolidation. In this paper a method is proposed to determine a consistent coefficient of consolidation by applying the concept of an optimum design technique over all ranges of the degree of consolidation. Initial excess pore pressure distribution is assumed to be capable of being obtained by the successive spherical cavity expansion theory. The dissipation of pore pressure is simulated by means of a two-dimensional linear-uncoupled axi-symmetric consolidation analysis. The minimization of differences between measured and predicted excess pore pressure was carried out by the BFGS unconstrained optimum design algorithm with a one-dimensional golden section search technique. By analyzing numerical examples and in-situ test results, it was found that the adopted optimum design technique gives consistent and convergent results.     

Regime interplay: the case of biodiversity and climate change

In this paper, the interplay between the biodiversity and climate change regimes is examined in the context of a case study. An understanding of how the regimes interact is crucial to their successful operation, since it provides insight into how policy options might be drawn up to create synergy rather than conflict among the respective regimes’ objectives. Despite the increasing importance of the study of regime interplay, due to its potential influence on regime effectiveness, there is limited understanding of why regimes interact and how their interplay may affect their successful operation, since few empirical studies have been conducted in this area. By analysing the causes of the regime interplay and the potential effects thereof, this paper draws policy implications regarding how the interacting regimes might be better co-ordinated to create synergy.     

Influence of the total atmospheric optical depth and cloud cover on solar irradiance components

Broadband solar irradiance data obtained in the spectral range 400–940 nm at Kwangju, South Korea from 1999–2000 have been analyzed to investigate the effects of cloud cover and atmospheric optical depth on solar radiation components. Results from measurements indicate that the percentage of direct and diffuse horizontal components of solar irradiance depend largely on total optical depth (TOD) and cloud cover. During summer and spring, the percentages of diffuse solar irradiance relative to the global irradiance were 5.0% and 4.9% as compared to 2.2% and 3.0% during winter and autumn. The diffuse solar irradiance is higher than the direct in spring and summer by 24.2%, and 40.6%, respectively, which may largely be attributed to the attenuation (scattering) of radiation by heavy dust pollution and large cloud amount. In cloud-free conditions with cloud cover ≤2/10, the fraction of the direct and diffuse components were 66.0% and 34.0%, respectively, with a mean daily global irradiance value of 7.92±2.91 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹. However, under cloudy conditions (with cloud cover ≥8/10), the diffuse and direct fractions were 97.9% and 2.2% of the global component, respectively. The annual mean TOD under cloudless conditions (cloud cover≤2/10) yields 0.74±0.33 and increased to as much as 3.15±0.67 under cloudy conditions with cloud amount ≥8/10. An empirical formula is derived for estimating the diffuse and direct components of horizontal solar irradiance by considering the total atmospheric optical depth (TOD). Results from statistical models are shown for the estimation of solar irradiance components as a function of TOD with sufficient accuracy as indicated by low standard error for each solar zenith angle (SZA).     

Similarities between strike-slip faults at different scales and a simple age determining method for active faults

Abstract Several differently scaled strike‐slip faults were examined. The faults shared many geometric features, such as secondary fractures and linkage structures (damage zones). Differences in fault style were not related to specific scale ranges. However, it was recognized that differences in style may occur in different tectonic settings (e.g. dilational/contractional relays or wall/linkage/tip zones), different locations along the master fault or different fault evolution stages. Fractal dimensions were compared for two faults (Gozo and San Andreas), which supports the idea of self‐similarity. Fractal dimensions for traces of faults and fractures of damage zones were higher (D ～1.35) than for the main fault traces (D ～1.005) because of increased complexity due to secondary faults and fractures. Based on the statistical analysis of another fault evolution study, single event movements in earthquake faults typically have a maximum earthquake slip : rupture length ratio of approximately 10^?4, although this has only been established for large earthquake faults because of limited data. Most geological faults have a much higher maximum cumulative displacement : fault length ratio; that is, approximately 10^?2 to 10^?1 (e.g. Gozo, ～10^?2; San Andreas, ～10^?1). The final cumulative displacement on a fault is produced by accumulation of slip along ruptures. Hence, using the available information from earthquake faults, such as earthquake slip, recurrence interval, maximum cumulative displacement and fault length, the approximate age of active faults can be estimated. The lower limit of estimated active fault age is expressed with maximum cumulative displacement, earthquake slip and recurrence interval as T ? (d_max /u) · I(M).     

The solar wind and the Sun–Earth link

Plasma streams out from the Sun in the form of the solar wind. Shadia Rifai Habbal and Richard Woo examine the workings of this enigmatic link between the Earth and the Sun.     

On the Effects of Non-planar Geometry for Blind Thrust Faults on Strong Ground Motion

— We quantify the effects of complex fault geometry on low-frequency (<1 Hz) strong ground motion using numerical modeling of dynamic rupture. Our tests include the computation of synthetic seismograms for several simple rupture scenarios with planar and curved fault approximations of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. We use the boundary integral equation method (BIEM) to compute the dynamic rupture process, which includes the normal stress effects along the curved fault geometries. The wave propagation and computation of synthetic seismograms are modeled using a fourth-order finite-difference method (FDM). The near-field ground motion is significantly affected by the acceleration, deceleration and arrest of rupture due to the curvature of the faults, as well as the variation in directivity of the rupture. For example, a 6-km-long hanging-wall or footwall splay with a maximum offset of 1 km can change 1-Hz peak velocities by up to a factor of 2-3 near the fault. Our tests suggest that the differences in waveform are larger on the hanging wall compared to those on the footwall, although the differences in amplitude are larger in the forward rupture direction (footwall). The results imply that kinematic ground motion estimates may be biased by the omission of dynamic rupture effects and even relatively gentle variation in fault geometry, and even for long-period waves.     

Optimal design of viscoelastic dampers using eigenvalue assignment

In this study a procedure for determining the optimum size and location of viscoelastic dampers is proposed using the eigenvalue assignment technique. Natural frequencies and modal damping ratios, required to realize a given target response, are determined first by the convex model. Then the desired dynamic structural properties are realized by optimally distributing the damping and stiffness coefficients of viscoelastic dampers using non‐linear programming based on the gradient of eigenvalues. This optimization method provides information on the optimal location as well as the magnitude of the damper parameters. The proposed procedure is applied to the retrofit of a 10‐story shear frame, and to a three‐dimensional structure with an asymmetric plan. The analysis results confirm that the responses of model structures retrofitted by the proposed method correspond well with the given target response. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of the elastic modulus set of foliated rocks from ultrasonic velocity measurements

Ultrasonic measurements of compressional and shear wave velocities under hydrostatic pressure up to 70 MPa were carried out on cylindrical specimens cored across and along the foliation planes. Our measurements revealed that the foliation of the metamorphic rocks induces a clear velocity anisotropy between two orthogonal directions; faster along the foliation plane and slower across the plane in most rock types. All velocity components monotonically increase with the confining pressure, probably due to the closure of microcracks distributed in rock specimens. We determined the complete set of dynamic moduli of foliated metamorphic rocks with two assumptions; transverse isotropy due to the foliation and ellipsoidal seismic energy propagation from a point source. The calculated elastic moduli referring to different directions could be valuable for the design of various engineering structures in planar textured rock mass.