甘青地区新石器-青铜时代居民颅面部形态变异及其在人群形成上的意义

通过对考古遗址出土古代居民遗骸的研究来探寻人群形成、适应、迁徙、融合历史是生物人类学研究的重要内容。甘青地区地处我国西北,位于新疆与中原之间,是人群迁徙与交流的关键地区。以往研究发现该地区新石器-青铜时代居民具有的一些独特的头面部特征,如具有偏狭的中颅型、高颅结合狭颅、中等偏狭的面宽、高而狭的面型、中等的面部扁平度、中眶型、狭鼻型和正颌型。一些学者就来自周边地区人群迁徙或基因交流对甘青地区古代人群形成的影响做过探讨。由于迄今开展的相关研究及掌握的数据资料有限,学术界对甘青地区古代人群内部的变异情况、时代变化及其与周边地区人群的差异程度还缺乏深入的了解,对新石器时代以来甘青地区人群的形成过程以及与东、西方人群的关系还不是很清楚。本文通过对243例甘青地区新石器-青铜时代人群颅骨测量数据的统计和分析,结合相关考古学和古环境学资料,对该地区古代居民颅面部形态特征的总体表现特点、时代变化、内部变异及与周边地区人群的关系进行了探讨,发现：1）从整体颅面部特征上看,甘青地区新石器-青铜时代人群介于典型西方人群与中原人群之间,但与中原人群更为接近;2）甘青地区新石器-青铜时代人群颅骨测量特征呈现一定的时代变化。从新石器时代到青铜时代,颅型趋向圆颅和阔颅化、面型趋狭、鼻型趋狭、眶型趋高;齿槽部的突颌水平变小;3）甘青地区古代人群颅面部测量特征的内部变异程度介于新疆与中原人群之间。从新石器时代到青铜时代,甘青地区人群颅面部测量特征的内部变异呈减小趋势;4）从新石器时代到青铜时代,甘青地区古代人群部分颅面部测量特征呈现出与西方人群接近的趋势。基于本文的分析,认为气候环境、生业方式以及人群之间的基因交流共同造成了甘青地区古代人群颅面部形态特征的变化,甘青地区古代人群形成以受到中原人群影响为主。

     

关于辽宁地区b值方法定量预测的研究

本文利用地震学分析预报方法程式指南和“八五”攻关成果中提出的地震b值定量预测方法,对辽宁及邻区1969年以来发生的8次地震震例作了回顾性检验研究。在此基础上,根据震前b值的变化特征,总结出了可能适用于辽宁地区半年左右尺度的b值预测方法的异常羊别指标及预报规则。     

Chemical signature of intermediate water masses along western Portuguese margin

Although the circulation of intermediate water masses in the eastern North Atlantic remains poorly defined, the presence of fresher intermediate waters, the Sub-Artic (SAIW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), as well the saline intermediate Mediterranean Water (MW), has been tracked using biogeochemical properties. Here we assess the hydrographic and chemical structures of intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin by examining the vertical distributions and property-property plots of chemical tracers (oxygen and nutrients). AAIW was traced by low oxygen and high nutrients, while SAIW was recognized by low nutrients. The Mediterranean Water (MW) undercurrent is shown to spread towards the eastern flank of Gorringe bank. Concurrently, the fresher waters gained salt by direct incorporation of MW, while this water was enriched in nutrients on its way northward and westward owing, to a great extent, to the entrainment of an AAIW branch. The distributions of nutrients and apparent oxygen utilization are discussed in terms of regional ocean circulation. Our analysis suggests a circulation pattern of the various intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin: MW extends all over the area, but its presence is more pronounced around cape St. Vincent; SAIW apparently moves southward, reaching the Gorringe bank region, and AAIW flows northward along the coast and around the bank.     

Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Heavy metal pollution in sediments of a typical mariculture zone in South China

The heavy metal inventory and the ecological risk of the estuarine sediments in Hailing Bay, an important maricultural zone along the southern coast of China, were investigated. Results show that the surface sediments were mainly polluted by As (2.17-20.34 mg/kg), Ni (1.37-42.50mg/kg), Cu (1.21-58.84 mg/kg) and Zn (11.69-219.22 mg/kg). Furthermore, the aquafarming zone was significantly more polluted than the non-aquafarming zone, and cluster analysis suggested additional sources of heavy metal input in the aquafarming zone. As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were mainly present in the non-bioavailable residual form in the surface sediments, whereas Cd was predominantly in the highly mobile acid soluble and reducible fractions. The ecological risk of the polluted sediments stemmed mainly from Cd, and from As, Cu and Pb to less degrees. The highest potential risks occurred near the aquaculture base, indicating the need to control heavy metal inputs from aquafarming activities.     

峰局五矿下组煤带压开采的可行性与建议

峰局五矿是多年开采的老矿。近些年，随着开采深度的不断增加和开采层次的逐渐下移，来自底部岩溶高承压水的威胁日趋严重，实际生产能力逐年下降。下组煤能否开采是关系到矿井生存与发展的大问题。作者根据多年的研究成果和工作实践，就下组煤带压开采的可行性，谈一些看法和建议。     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

An Analytical Model For Threshold Crossing Rates Of Concentration Fluctuations In Dispersing Plumes

A simple analytical model is developed for the meanupcrossing rate of plume concentration fluctuations assuming that thisprocess can be well approximated by a lognormal process. The resultingexpression requires only the specification of the in-plume fluctuationintensity and in-plume Taylor micro-time scale and, hence, does notexplicitly involve the joint probability density function of theconcentration and its derivative. The analytical model provides agood fit to some field measurements of the mean upcrossing rate ina dispersing plume.     

An inter-comparison of tidal solutions computed with a range of unstructured grid models of the Irish and Celtic Sea Regions

Three finite element codes, namely TELEMAC, ADCIRC and QUODDY, are used to compute the spatial distributions of the M₂, M₄ and M₆ components of the tide in the sea region off the west coast of Britain. This region is chosen because there is an accurate topographic dataset in the area and detailed open boundary M₂ tidal forcing for driving the model. In addition, accurate solutions (based upon comparisons with extensive observations) using uniform grid finite difference models forced with these open boundary data exist for comparison purposes. By using boundary forcing, bottom topography and bottom drag coefficients identical to those used in an earlier finite difference model, there is no danger of comparing finite element solutions for “untuned unoptimised solutions” with those from a “tuned optimised solution”. In addition, by placing the open boundary in all finite element calculations at the same location as that used in a previous finite difference model and using the same M₂ tidal boundary forcing and water depths, a like with like comparison of solutions derived with the various finite element models was possible. In addition, this open boundary was well removed from the shallow water region, namely the eastern Irish Sea where the higher harmonics were generated. Since these are not included in the open boundary, forcing their generation was determined by physical processes within the models. Consequently, an inter-comparison of these higher harmonics generated by the various finite element codes gives some indication of the degree of variability in the solution particularly in coastal regions from one finite element model to another. Initial calculations using high-resolution near-shore topography in the eastern Irish Sea and including “wetting and drying” showed that M₂ tidal amplitudes and phases in the region computed with TELEMAC were in good agreement with observations. The ADCIRC code gave amplitudes about 30 cm lower and phases about 8° higher. For the M₄ tide, in the eastern Irish Sea amplitudes computed with TELEMAC were about 4 cm higher than ADCIRC on average, with phase differences of order 5°. For the M₆ component, amplitudes and phases showed significant small-scale variability in the eastern Irish Sea, and no clear bias between the models could be found. Although setting a minimum water depth of 5 m in the near-shore region, hence removing wetting and drying, reduced the small-scale variability in the models, the differences in M₂ and M₄ tide between models remained. For M₆, a significant reduction in variability occurred in the eastern Irish Sea when a minimum 5-m water depth was specified. In this case, TELEMAC gave amplitudes that were 1 cm higher and phases 30° lower than ADCIRC on average. For QUODDY in the eastern Irish Sea, average M₂ tidal amplitudes were about 10 cm higher and phase 8° higher than those computed with TELEMAC. For M₄, amplitudes were approximately 2 cm higher with phases of order 15° higher in the northern part of the region and 15° lower in the southern part. For M₆ in the north of the region, amplitudes were 2 cm higher and about 2 cm lower in the south. Very rapid M₆ tidal-phase changes occurred in the near-shore regions. The lessons learned from this model inter-comparison study are summarised in the final section of the paper. In addition, the problems of performing a detailed model–model inter-comparison are discussed, as are the enormous difficulties of conducting a true model skill assessment that would require detailed measurements of tidal boundary forcing, near-shore topography and precise knowledge of bed types and bed forms. Such data are at present not available.