A Climate Prediction Method Based on EMD and Ensemble Prediction Technique

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.     

Variation in the sediment deposition behind check‐dams under different soil erosion conditions on the Loess Plateau,China

To maintain a reasonable sediment regulation system in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, it is critical to determine the variation in sediment deposition behind check‐dams for different soil erosion conditions. Sediment samples were collected by using a drilling machine in the Fangta watershed of the loess hilly–gully region and the Manhonggou watershed of the weathered sandstone hilly–gully (pisha) region. On the basis of the check‐dam capacity curves, the soil bulk densities and the couplet thickness in these two small watersheds, the sediment yields were deduced at the watershed scale. The annual average sediment deposition rate in the Manhonggou watershed (702.0 mm/(km²·a)) from 1976 to 2009 was much higher than that in the Fangta watershed (171.6 mm/(km²·a)) from 1975 to 2013. The soil particle size distributions in these two small watersheds were generally centred on the silt and sand fractions, which were 42.4% and 50.7% in the Fangta watershed and 60.6% and 32.9% in the Manhonggou watershed, respectively. The annual sediment deposition yield exhibited a decreasing trend; the transition years were 1991 in the Fangta watershed and 1996 in the Manhonggou watershed (P < 0.05). In contrast, the annual average sediment deposition yield was much higher in the Manhonggou watershed (14011.1 t/(km²·a)) than in the Fangta watershed (3149.6 t/(km²·a)). In addition, the rainfalls that induced sediment deposition at the check‐dams were greater than 30 mm in the Fangta watershed and 20 mm in the Manhonggou watershed. The rainfall was not the main reason for the difference in the sediment yield between the two small watersheds. The conversion of farmland to forestland or grassland was the main reason for the decrease in the soil erosion in the Fangta watershed, while the weathered sandstone and bare land were the main factors driving the high sediment yield in the Manhonggou watershed. Knowledge of the sediment deposition process of check‐dams and the variation in the catchment sediment yield under different soil erosion conditions can serve as a basis for the implementation of improved soil erosion and sediment control strategies, particularly in semi‐arid hilly–gully regions. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

淡水磷酸盐氧同位素前处理方法的优化

磷是地表水体中的关键性营养盐,在水生生态系统的物质循环与能量流动方面发挥着重要作用,研究水体中磷的来源、转化与归趋对于了解水环境的演变过程与科学保护具有重要意义.近年来,磷酸盐氧同位素(δ18 O P)技术已逐渐应用于淡水环境中磷的来源示踪与生物地球化学循环研究,其样品前处理主要沿用海水方法体系.相比而言,淡水样品中PO 3-4浓度通常较低,有机质和干扰离子含量却较高,复杂的样品前处理过程极大地制约了δ18 O P分析在淡水环境体系的广泛应用.为此,本研究针对现有海水样品δ18 O P前处理方法在地表淡水环境的适用性加以检验,并进行了三点优化改进:①将MAGIC沉淀步骤使用的MgCl 2替换为Mg(NO 3)2,避免了Cl-的干扰,减少AgCl杂质的生成;②调节生成Ag3PO4溶液pH值为8.0,保证Ag3PO4沉淀快速完全;③对Ag3PO4沉淀过程采用避光处理,降低了AgNO 3及Ag3PO4可能的光解影响,提高了Ag3PO4的纯度,使δ18 O P的测试结果更为准确.本改进方法为后续利用δ18 O P技术深入探究淡水环境中磷的生物地球化学循环与生态环境效应提供了有益的方法借鉴.     

拱坝系统三维非线性地震波动分析

本文将显式有限元结合外推人工边界的方法发展应用于三维非线性近场波动问题的研究。首次提出了拱坝－库水－地基系统三维非线性地震反应波动分析方法，并与传统的无质量地基分析方法进行了比较。     

计算断层自发破裂过程的离散网格划分研究

离散化网格的空间步长选取在各种数值算法中都是一个很受关注的问题,在全空间均匀介质模型和简单离散化方案下,利用边界积分方程方法研究在自发破裂求解过程中动力学参数组合Dc和Te (Dc为临界滑动弱化位移,Te为有效的断层破裂面上的初始应力)对计算网格划分的影响,初步得到了Dc和Te参数空间中的有效计算网格的选取规律,对合理、有效地运用边界积分方程方法计算地震震源的破裂过程具有重要的指导意义.      

关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。     

加热法消雾所需热量和增温效应的计算方法

雾是人们熟知的一种常见的天气现象。它有利于农业生产和果树栽培,但对各种交通运输都会产生障碍和困难,严重时还可能发生意外事故;对于军事活动利弊兼有;在严重污染的城市中出现雾时,由于有毒的化合物质,轻则发生中毒现象,重则出现居民死亡。所以雾对于国民经济、交通运输、军事活动乃至人类的生命健康都有直接和十分密切的关系。因此很早以来,人类就开始了人工消雾的试验,     

安徽暴雨落区与一些物理量关系的统计分析

从概率统计的思路出发，用1994-2003年的降水资料对安徽省夏半年（4—9月）暴雨落区、频数等与5840gpm线的关系进行了统计分析，并用2003年淮河洪涝期间20个暴雨区域与某些实况物理量场对比，分析了暴雨落区与一些物理量分布的关系，表明了安徽省暴雨主要集中在梅雨期到7月份，暴雨日数多寡和暴雨范围大小，基本上主导汛期降水多少和旱涝趋势。暴雨落区集中出现在5820～5840gpm的区域，而〈5750gpm和〉5870gpm的区域很少出现暴雨。因此梅雨期主雨带位置预报大致可以用5840gpm线的移动作参考。在物理量上，西风急流北侧以及500hPa上升运动中心南侧到850hPa上升运动中心北侧，有利于暴雨发生发展。