Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, cli- matic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. In observations, frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) show a de- creasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), heavy precipitation days (R20), and the contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main char- acteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986--2005 and 1961-80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process pararneterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes. 相似文献
The major objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration from paddy fields. A sensitivity analysis of meteorological variables at the Kao-Hsiung station, one of meteorological stations in southern Taiwan, was carried out using the modified Penman formula. Forty-eight-year records of temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, and precipitation depth comprised the database. Trend and persistence analyses of the data were performed using the Mann–Kendall test, the Cumulative Deviation test, Linear Regression, andthe Autocorrelation Coefficient. The results indicated that only temperature and relative humidity have significant long-term trends and persistence. Two climatic scenarios, viz. (1) linear extrapolation of climatic trends and (2) the predictions of General Circulation Models (GCMs), were assumed to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The study revealed that evapotranspiration from paddy fields increased under both climatic scenarios studied. 相似文献
This paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales.Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth.The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range.A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center.At the same time,useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data,reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components.Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method.The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10–30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications. 相似文献
The influence of pH on the rate of dissolution of various carbonates (calcite, aragonite, witherite, magnesite and dolomite) has been investigated at 25°C using a continuous fluidized bed reactor. The general rate dependence on pH observed for the simple carbonates is very similar and is in agreement with the results observed for calcite and aragonite by L.N. Plummer and coworkers. However, the rate of dissolution of magnesite is approximately four orders of magnitude lower than calcite.
For simple carbonates, the elementary steps involved in the dissolution reaction are:
where M represents the metal ion which can be Ca, Mg and Ba. According to the stoichiometry of the three reaction steps and the thermodynamic constraints, the total forward and backward rates can be expressed as:
Rf=k1aH+k2aH2CO3*+K3
rb=k-1aM2+aHCO3-+k-2aHCO3-+k-3aM2+aCO32-
The rate constants (k1, k2, k3 and k−3) determined with our experimental results for calcite, aragonite and witherite show that the dissolution rates are similar for these three minerals and that the nature of the cations does not play a significant role. The good agreement between the Ksp calculated from the measured k3/k−3 ratio and the theromodynamic value suggests that our dissolution mechanism is coherent.
The rate dependence on pH of the dissolution of dolomite obeys a fractional order at low pH's and confirms previously published observations therein. However, the two-step reaction mechanism proposed does not explain the fractional reaction order observed, which is likely due to a more complex surface reaction. 相似文献
This study analyzed the composition and uranium valence of pitchblendes sampled from the hydrothermal Guidong and Zhuguang uranium deposits of the middle Nanling metallogenic belt, Southern China using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). A revolutionary discovery is that the uranium not only exists in the forms of tetravalent and hexavalent uranium oxides, but also occurs in the form of native uranium. This is the first discovery of the existence of native uranium in nature. It greatly helps to reveal the origin of hydrothermal mineralization of uranium, and also has great significance for studying the thermal energy, formation and evolution of the earth. 相似文献
The new hydrothermal diamond anvil cell (HDAC) has been designed for optical microscopy and X-ray diffraction at pressures up to 10 GPa and temperatures between –190°C and 1200°C. Laser light reffected from the top and bottom anvil faces and the top and bottom solid sample faces produce interference fringes that provide a very sensitive means of monitoring the volume of sample chamber and for observing volume and refractive index changes in solid samples due to transitions and reactions. Synchrotron radiation has been used to make X-ray diffraction patterns of samples under hydrothermal conditions. Individual heaters and individual thermocouples provide temperature control with an accuracy of ±0.5°C. Liquid nitrogen directly introduced into the HDAC has been used to reduce the sample temperature to –190°C. The - phase boundary of quartz has been used to calculate the transition pressures from measured transition temperatures. With this method we have redetermined 5 isochores of H2O up to 850°C and 1.2 GPa at which the solution rate of the quartz became so rapid that the quartz dissolved completely before the - transition could be observed. When silica solutions were cooled, opal spherules and rods formed. 相似文献
Turbulence and heat fluxes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) for the roll vortex regime, observed during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) over the western Gulf Stream, have been studied. The spectral analysis suggests that cloud streets (roll vortices) are vertically organized convection in the MABL having the same roll scale for both the cloud layer and subcloud layer, and that the roll spacing is about three times the MABL depth. The roll circulations contribute significantly to the sensible (temperature) and latent heat (moisture) fluxes with importance increasing upward. Near the MABL top, these fluxes are primarily due to roll vortices which transfer both sensible heat and moisture upward in the lower half of the convective MABL. Near the MABL top, the roll circulations transfer sensible heat downward and moisture upward in the clear thermal-street region, but roll vortices influenced by evaporative cooling can transfer sensible heat upward and moisture downward in the cloud-street region. Near the cloud-top, the upward buoyancy flux due to evaporative cooling is highly related to the roll circulations near the inversion.For the lower half of the MABL, the normalized temperature flux decreases upward more rapidly than the humidity flux, which is mainly because potential temperature () increases slightly upward while humidity (q) decreases slightly upward above the unstable surface layer. The gradient production (associated with the gradient) is a source for the temperature flux in the unstable surface layer but changes to a sink in the mixed layer, while the gradient production (associated with the q gradient) acts as a source for the humidity flux in both the unstable surface and mixed layers. The results suggest that the entrainment at the MABL top might affect the budgets of temperature and humidity fluxes in the lower MABL, but not in the unstable surface layer.Caelum Research Corporation, Silver Spring, MD, 20901, U.S.A. 相似文献