10~30 d延伸期可预报性与预报方法研究进展

10~30 d延伸期的可预报性既依赖于初始条件,也与缓变的下垫面有关,寻找延伸期时段内可预报性较高的低频特征,识别延伸期的可预报性来源及影响的物理机制是提高延伸期预报水平的关键。近年延伸期可预报性来源、热带大气季节内振荡监测预测和影响等领域的研究取得较大进展,提出和应用了动力统计相结合以及大气低频信号释用等新的延伸期预报方法。对延伸期可预报性来源及其与初值和外强迫异常的关系分析表明,海气相互作用能提高亚洲和西太平洋区域延伸期时段大气环流和要素的可预报性。热带大气季节内振荡、平流层爆发性增温以及各种次季节尺度的海气、陆气耦合作用和大气响应均为延伸期预报提供了重要的可预报性来源。由于数值模式延伸期时段的预报性能与实际业务需求还存在一定距离,基于动力统计相结合和物理统计的延伸期预报方法被广泛应用于业务预报,表现出一定的预报技巧。     

四川地形扰动对降水分布影响

引入一维加权平均的谱分析方法定量研究四川地形强迫对该区域降水分布的影响。结果表明:纬向地形和冬季降水谱峰锁相于同一波长（475.8 km）,呈共振关系,地形与其他季节降水呈漂移关系,这与经向和纬向上环流变动有关,即冬季纬向环流占主导,纬向地形触发的大气波动对冬季降水策动作用大;夏季降水是各种不同尺度系统相互作用的结果,地形是重要因素之一。经向和纬向地形特征尺度分别为296.8 km和475.8 km,反映了地形强迫的中尺度特征,且纬向地形谱峰比经向大1个数量级,纬向强迫更明显。夏季降水谱峰比冬季大2个数量级,降水系统纬向特征尺度比冬季小约150 km,说明夏季在纬向地形强迫下,降水系统尺度减小的同时其强度大大增加,这在一定程度上可以解释中尺度对流性降水在夏季偏多。四川夏季最大降水位于雅安地区,其地形扰动比四川整体扰动更明显,故产生的降水也更大。夏季降水和经向地形锁相于同一波长（37.1 km）,经向地形对雅安夏季强降水起关键作用。     

Atmospheric radiative transfer simulation for atmospheric correction of remote sensing data

The radiance leaving the earth-atmosphere system which can be sensed by a satellite borne radiometer is the sum of radiation emission from the earth surface and each atmospheric level that are transmitted to the top of the atmosphere. The radiation emission from the earth surface and the radiance of each atmospheric level can be separated from the radiance at the top the atmospheric level measured by a satellite borne radiometer. However, it is very difficult to measure the atmospheric radiance, especially the synchronous measurement with the satellite. Thus some atmospheric radiative transfer models have been developed to provide many options for modeling atmospheric radiation transport, such as LOWTRAN, MODTRAN, 6S, FASCODE, LBLRTM, SHARC, and SAMM. Meanwhile, these models can support the detailed detector system design, the optimization and evaluation of satellite mission parameters, and the data processing procedures. As an example, the newly atmospheric radiative transfer models, MODTRAN will be compared with other models after the atmospheric radiative transfer is described. And the atmospheric radiative transfer simulation procedures and their applications to atmospheric transmittance, retrieval of atmospheric elements, and surface parameters, will also be presented.     

Trace metals in seawater and copepods in the ocean outfall area off the northern Taiwan coast

The distribution, partitioning and concentrations of trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn) in seawater, including dissolved and particulate phases, and in copepods in the ocean outfall area off the northern coast of Taiwan were investigated. Normalization of metal concentrations to the background metal concentration to yield relative enrichment factors (EF), which were used to evaluate the contamination of dissolved and particulate trace metals in seawater around the ocean outfall. The EF results indicated that the outfall area was significantly contaminated by dissolved Fe and Zn, and by particulate Fe, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn. In addition, most trace metals were chiefly in the particulate phase. The average percentage of total metal concentrations (dissolved plus particulate phases) bound by suspended particulate matter followed the sequence Al(95%) = Mn(95%) > Pb(88%) > Cu(86%) > Fe(72%) > Zn(32%) > Cr(17.5%) > Cd(3.4%). Therefore, metal contamination is better evaluated in solid phase than in the dissolved phase. The concentration ranges of trace metals in the copepods, Temora turbinata, Oncaea venusta and Euchaeta rimana, near the outfall were: Cd, 0.23-1.81 microg g(-1); Cr, 16.5-195 microg g(-1); Cu, 14-160 microg g(-1); Fe, 256-7255 microg g(-1); Mn, 5.5-80.8 microg g(-1); Pb, 2.6-56.2 microg g(-1); Zn, 132-3891 microg g(-1); and Al, 0.21-1.13%. Aluminum, and probably Fe, seemed to be the major elements in copepods. The concentrations of trace metals in copepods, especially Temora turbinata, near the outfall were generally higher than those obtained in the background station. The mean increase in bioconcentration factor of metals in copepods ranged from 4 to 7 and followed the sequence Al(6.4) > Cu(6.2) > Fe(6.0) > Zn(5.7) > Pb(5.6) > Cr(5.5) > Cd(5.1) > Mn(4.7). Therefore, marine copepods in the waters of northern Taiwan can accumulate trace metals over background concentrations and act as contamination indicators.     

中国及周边地区2000-2004年构造应力图

地震震源机制解是分析岩石圈现代构造应力场的基本资料,直接反映了地壳断层结构的活动特征.因此,整理统计并不断更新地震震源机制解资料及其反映的现今构造应力场状况,并进行构造分析是非常基础且重要的工作.     

全球大震和中国及邻区中强震地震活动 (2006年2-3月)

本目录中的地震参数来自"中国地震台站观测报告"(简称"月报").其中,国内及邻区给出M≥4.7的事件,全球给出M≥6的事件."月报"由中国地震台网中心按月做出.     

双经纬仪虚拟像坐标二维直接定位

提出了一种基于虚拟左、右像片像空间坐标系的二维直接定位法,可快速提取工业测量系统两台经纬仪之间的相对定位元素并完成相对定位。它不用进行迭代,既可以在右测站的定位元素未知时进行定位元素的解算,又具有简单清楚的几何意义。最后用算例对算法进行了验证。     

潮汐形变前驱波的时空特征

分析了潮汐形变观测记录的14个震例中36个前驱波图像的特点、形态、量级,总结了潮汐形变前驱波的时空特征主震震级Ms≥5.9时出现的可能性大,出现的时间多为震前0.1~6.5天;台站对Ms=5、6、7、≥7.9地震的有效监测距离分别为70、300、400、2000km。     

科学计算程序库WHIGG F90 LIB及其地学应用

WHIGG F90LIB(WFL)是一款用FORTRAN90语言编写的用于地球学科的计算程序库。应用WFL可以减少重复性编程,方便地解决科学计算中数据的预处理问题,结合多种分析方法,对科学问题进行定量分析。利用WFL在地球重力场、气候涛动和数字信号处理3个方面的应用实例,以验证WFL在科学计算中应用的有效性。     

三峡库首区重点断裂围限区蓄水的加卸载效应

通过对蓄水前后三峡库首区构造应力场进行三维数值模拟发现,相对于蓄水前,蓄水至135 m水位时,官渡口断裂-马鹿池断裂-牛口断裂围限区、秭归地理中心和九湾溪断裂带,出现了4个主应力下降区和共轭的主应力增长区,形成了差应力场;175 m水位与135 m水位相比,局部差应力场呈现逆向变化,即形成了加载效应与卸载效应的交替过程。这一过程,可能是水库诱发地震的诱震(或触震)因素。