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71.
Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution. 相似文献
72.
针对传统震害预测方法逐栋抽样计算建筑物抗震性能的不足,本文提出了一种基于蚁群聚类径向基(ACCRBF)网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法。依据不同地震动峰值加速度下多层砖房的实际震害资料,对模型进行训练,在模型的输入和输出之间建立映射关系,并利用这种映射关系对未知样本进行分类,实现对多层砖房的震害分析和预测。模型的输入为反映结构的震害影响因子,输出为给定的地震动峰值加速度下结构震害等级。研究表明,基于ACCRBF网络模型的多层砖房震害预测结果与震害实例基本吻合,具有推广应用价值。 相似文献
73.
74.
Shuo Chen Renhai Pu Huiqiong Li Hongjun Qu Tianyu Ji Siyu Su Yunwen Guan Hui Zhang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(9):86-106
The Dongfang1-1 gas field (DF1-1) in the Yinggehai Basin is currently the largest offshore self-developed gas field in China and is rich in oil and gas resources. The second member of the Pliocene Yinggehai Formation (YGHF) is the main gas-producing formation and is composed of various sedimentary types; however, a clear understanding of the sedimentary types and development patterns is lacking. Here, typical lithofacies, logging facies and seismic facies types and characteristics of the YGHF are identified based on high-precision 3D seismic data combined with drilling, logging, analysis and testing data. Based on 3D seismic interpretation and attribute analysis, the origin of high-amplitude reflections is clarified, and the main types and evolution characteristics of sedimentary facies are identified. Taking gas formation upper II (IIU) as an example, the plane distribution of the delta front and bottom current channel is determined; finally, a comprehensive sedimentary model of the YGHF second member is established. This second member is a shallowly buried “bright spot” gas reservoir with weak compaction. The velocity of sandstone is slightly lower than that of mudstone, and the reflection has medium amplitude when there is no gas. The velocity of sandstone decreases considerably after gas accumulation, resulting in an increase in the wave impedance difference and high-amplitude (bright spot) reflection between sandstone and mudstone; the range of high amplitudes is consistent with that of gas-bearing traps. The distribution of gas reservoirs is obviously controlled by dome-shaped diapir structural traps, and diapir faults are channels through which natural gas from underlying Miocene source rocks can enter traps. The study area is a delta front deposit developed on a shallow sea shelf. The lithologies of the reservoir are mainly composed of very fine sand and coarse silt, and a variety of sedimentary structural types reflect a shallow sea delta environment; upward thickening funnel type, strong toothed bell type and toothed funnel type logging facies are developed. In total, 4 stages of delta front sand bodies (corresponding to progradational reflection seismic facies) derived from the Red River and Blue River in Vietnam have developed in the second member of the YGHF; these sand bodies are dated to 1.5 Ma and correspond to four gas formations. During sedimentation, many bottom current channels (corresponding to channel fill seismic facies) formed, which interacted with the superposed progradational reflections. When the provenance supply was strong in the northwest, the area was dominated by a large set of delta front deposits. In the period of relative sea level rise, surface bottom currents parallel to the coastline were dominant, and undercutting erosion was obvious, forming multistage superimposed erosion troughs. Three large bottom current channels that developed in the late sedimentary period of gas formation IIU are the most typical. 相似文献
75.
Mineral-bituminous matrix(MBM) makes up a major part of source rocks,but its potential in hydrocarbon generation is uncertain,Mineral and organic (Maceral and kerogen) compositions,organic maturity and fluorescence of MBM are studied based on source rock samples from eastern Jiuquan(Jiudong)Basin.The results show that MBM is dominated by inorganic minerals and among the small percentage of organic components those of secondary origins are predominant over the primary species.This strongly indicates that the significance of MBM in hydrocarbon generation is limited. 相似文献
76.
华北山地多成因壶穴初步研究——对华北山地“冰臼”等“冰川地貌”的讨论 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
华北山地"距今二、三百万年"的"冰臼"绝大部分位于第四纪河谷内,"距今1~2万年"的"冰川壶穴"位于全新世河谷内,与华北山地地貌演化相矛盾;所谓的"冰川地貌"组合不是真正的地貌组合,而是不同时代、不同成因地貌的混合,因此,华北山地不存在冰臼。所谓的"冰臼"是不同时代、多种成因的壶穴——距今2.50Ma前后的河蚀壶穴,距今10~20ka的雪蚀壶穴,距今10ka以来的溶蚀穴、溶蚀—河蚀壶穴、风化—风蚀壶穴、现代壶穴和水潭。 相似文献
77.
78.
依据地震危险性分析的思路,提出一种场地震害预测的方法。依此方法,给出山东地区50a超越概率为10%的震害预测略图 相似文献
79.
普里兹湾及其邻近海域是中国南大洋调查研究的传统优势海域与重点区域。围绕夏季表层水、冬季水、陆架水、绕极深层水、南极底层水、普里兹湾底层水、冰架水等研究海区主要水团的特征和分布,总结了前人在南极普里兹湾及其邻近海域基于调查资料开展的水团研究中所取得的成果。研究表明,前人在对陆架水的示性指标界定上,将陆架水是否区分为高盐陆架水和低盐陆架水存在较大争议,在高盐陆架水和普里兹湾底层水的定义上存在重叠;目前尚没有证据表明绕极深层水向南可以伸展到普里兹湾的陆架区域,也没有发现在普里兹湾附近海域生成南极底层水的直接证据。 相似文献
80.
Spheroidal weathering of granite porphyry with well‐developed columnar joints by oxidation,iron precipitation,and rindlet exfoliation 下载免费PDF全文
Spheroidal weathering, one of the important rock weathering styles, has been attributed to chemical weathering by the water from joint surfaces, and mechanical aspects of the weathering have not been well addressed. We made an investigation on spheroidal weathering of Miocene granite porphyry with well‐developed columnar joints and found that this spheroidal weathering proceeds through chemical processes and accompanying mechanical processes. The investigation of the textures, physical properties, mineralogy, and chemistry of the porphyry revealed the presence of a brown band on the surface margins of corestones, representing the oxidation of pyrite and chlorite, and the precipitation of iron hydroxides, and the consequent generation of micro‐cracks within the band. During weathering, oxidation progresses inwards from joints that surround the rindlets, including both high‐angle columnar and low‐angle planar joints, and causes rounding of the unweathered interior portion of the rock. Microscopic observations of the brown band embedded with fluorescent resin show that pores are first filled with iron hydroxides, and that micro‐cracks then form parallel to the oxidation front in the outer portion of the brown band. Iron hydroxide precipitation increases the P‐wave velocity in the brown band, while micro‐crack formation decreases the tensile strength of the rock. Where the brown band has thickened to ~6 cm, the micro‐cracks are connected to one another to create continuous cracks, which separate the rindlets from the corestone. Micro‐crack formation parallel to the corestone surface may be attributed to compressive stresses generated by small amounts of volumetric expansion due to the precipitation of iron hydroxides in the brown band. Earth surface is under oxidizing environments so that precipitation of iron hydroxides commonly occurs; the spheroidal weathering in this paper is a typical example of the combination of chemical and mechanical processes under such environments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献