日本海沟俯冲带热结构与深源地震

本文利用有限差分方法,计算了全地幔对流模式和双层地幔对流模式下日本海沟俯冲带热结构、浮力及P波速度异常分布,基于亚稳态橄榄石相变模型推测亚稳态橄榄石的存在范围,同时分析了热传导系数、热膨胀系数和热源对俯冲带热结构的影响,以及俯冲带所受浮力与俯冲带形态的关系.结果表明,双层地幔对流模式下模拟的P波速度异常分布与层析成像结果更为相符,也与深源地震的分布有较好的相关性.板块内部亚稳态橄榄石的存在范围随热传导系数和热膨胀系数的减小而增大,同时忽略相变潜热和剪切生热的影响也会造成模型所预测的亚稳态橄榄石范围偏大.俯冲带所受负浮力在400 km深度附近达到最大值,亚稳态橄榄石的存在使负浮力逐渐减小,甚至在板块内部产生正浮力,不利于俯冲带穿透660 km相变界面.     

A contrast of two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces in oases of arid areas: A case study of Sangong River Watershed at the northern foot of Tianshan Mountains

Aerial photographs taken in 1978 and 1987, Landsat TM images in 1998 as well as soil, hydrology and socio-economic data for the oases in Sangong River Watershed were processed by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). There are two typical agricultural land uses in oases, Farm-based Land Use with large-scale intensified agricultural activities (FLU) and Household Responsibility-based Land Use with small-scale activities (HRLU). The Index Model of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC), Weighted Index Sum (WIS) and logistic stepwise regression model were established to contrast the two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces. The land use patterns were dominated by cropland and grassland for the entire region, and cropland, residential and industrial land were increasing stably. In the HRLU areas, woodland and grassland declined dramatically, but in the FLU areas, grassland decreased only by 12.0%, whereas woodland increased by 13.7%. LUCC was stronger in the earlier stage (1978–1987) than in the later stage (1987–1998) for the entire region. LUCC was more intense in the HRLU areas than in the FLU areas during the entire period (1978–1998). Policy was a key factor in the land use change, and water resources were a precondition in land use. Under the control of policy and water resources, the main human driving factors included population and economy, and the main natural restrictions were soil fertility and groundwater depth. Human driving factors controlled the land change in the HRLU areas, but natural restriction factors dominated in the FLU areas. In the mean time, intensification of LUCC in the region had some spatiotemporal implications with a fluctuation of impact factors.     

基于拉格朗日拟序结构的黑潮区域海流运输结构提取和分析

海流的拉格朗日运动对于研究物质输送有着重要意义,拉格朗日拟序结构(LCSs)作为研究海流结构的新型方法,相比于传统欧拉方法更为客观。本文提出了一种新的计算LCSs束的方法,基于25年的平均速度场,利用变分方法计算得到黑潮区域的气候态LCSs,并通过简化合并的方法得到了气候态LCSs束,该LCSs束能够突出地显示出海流特性和运输模式,其代表的平均拉格朗日环流有很强的约束作用,且具有鲁棒性。最终我们获得了气候态下12个月份的流场结构图,揭示了月周期性拉格朗日环流规律。本文还利用虚拟粒子输运、多年浮标轨迹以及气候态温盐异常3种方法进行了验证,与拉格朗日运输模式相吻合,证明了海流拉格朗日拟序结构的准确性和可靠性。     

印度尼西亚海域潮波的数值研究

基于ROMS模式构建了模拟区域为(15.52°S-7.13°N,110.39°~134.15°E)水平分辨率为2′的潮波数值模式,分别模拟了印尼海域M2、S2、K1、O1四个主要分潮。模拟结果与29个卫星高度计交叠点上的调和常数进行比较,符合较好。M2分潮的振幅均方根差为3.4cm,迟角均方根差为5.9°;S2分潮的振幅均方根差为1.7cm,迟角均方根差为6.3°;K1分潮振幅均方根差为1.1cm,迟角均方根差为5.8°;O1分潮振幅均方根差为1.2cm,迟角均方根差为4.4°。M2、S2、K1、O1分潮向量均方根差分别为3.8cm、2.4cm、1.9cm和1.3cm,模拟结果的相对偏差在10%左右。根据计算结果分析了印尼海域的潮汐特征及潮能传播规律,结果显示:爪哇海以外的印尼海域主要为不规则半日潮区;全日潮潮能主要由太平洋传入印尼海域,而半日潮潮能则是从印度洋传入印尼海域。     

Levee failure mechanisms during the extreme rainfall event: a case study in Southern Taiwan

Extreme weather has recently caused many disasters worldwide. In August 8, 2009, Southern Taiwan suffered from serious floods during Typhoon Morakot. In this extreme rainfall event, the Chiuliao first levee in the Laonong River basin experienced catastrophic failure. Therefore, this study focuses on the levee failure mechanisms based on variations in levee water levels. Specifically, this study investigates four mechanisms based on limit state equilibrium. The first mechanism involves the slope stability under hydrostatic conditions at various water levels. The results of this analysis show that the levee cannot fail under this mechanism. The second mechanism involves the levee slope stability with steady-state seepage. Because the water levels are different on the protected and flood sides, the water recedes much faster on the flood side than the protected side. Based on this analysis, the levee slope might fail when the water level at the protected side is close to the top of levee and the water level at the flood side starts to recede. The third and fourth mechanisms involve the levee foundation failure in terms of sliding and overturning failure. The results of this study indicate that the levee foundation is more prone to sliding failure than overturning failure. Based on these results, this study shows that the levee failed when the water level at the protected side neared the top of levee while the water level at flood side started to recede. At this moment, the levee may fail because of both the slope failure with seepage and sliding failure of the levee foundation.     

EASY%R_o法在地温梯度恢复中的局限性——以海拉尔盆地乌尔逊凹陷为例

EASY%Ro法是一种寻找能与现今Ro垂向分布达到最佳匹配的古地温梯度的反演热史分析法,涉及到的一个重要环节是有约束条件的最优化计算。基于4种地温梯度约束方式(逐步升高、逐步降低、先降后升、先升后降)的计算发现,EASY%Ro可以得到有差异的地温梯度史结果,又能达到现今相同的Ro分布,即EASY%Ro得到的地温梯度史有一定的不确定性;这种不确定性发生在反演地质时间段的早期。对乌尔逊凹陷4口井4种约束条件得到的地温梯度史结果分析说明,乌尔逊凹陷在大磨拐河组沉积时期的地温梯度值最高,伊敏组至今处于下降过程,大磨拐河组之前的地温梯度无法确定,但不高于大磨拐河组时期。     

中纬度亚洲现代间冰期气候变化的“西风模式”讨论

中纬度亚洲地区存在主要受季风环流影响的东南部湿润地区(简称季风区)和主要受西风环流控制的内陆干旱区(包括青藏高原北部高寒干旱区,简称西风区)。根据对近年来新发表的气候变化记录证据梳理总结,发现西风区在中—晚全新世气候湿润,与亚洲季风在早—中全新世强盛的格局显著不同。过去千年的西风区中世纪暖期干旱,而小冰期相对湿润,与此相对,万象洞石笋氧同位素记录则显示季风降水在中世纪暖期时整体处于高值,在小冰期处于低值段。在近百年,尤其是近50a,西北干旱区湿度增加,而季风影响范围内的西北东部和华北等地变得更干。不仅如此,在分属西风和季风影响区的青藏高原北部和南部,年代际—百年尺度上降水变化也表现出反相位关系。据此我们提出,亚洲中部西风带控制区在现代间冰期从数千年到年代际的各个时间尺度上均存在不同于季风区的湿度(降水)变化模式,称之为现代间冰期气候变化的西风模式。     

我国海洋卫星数据应用发展现状与思考

海洋科学是一门依赖于观测的学科, 而卫星是海洋研究的重要观测平台之一, 海洋卫星数据在海洋科学研究中具有重要的意义。21世纪初以来, 我国陆续发射了多颗专门用于海洋观测的卫星, 初步拥有自主海洋卫星全球观测网络。本文针对国内外海洋卫星资源基本情况, 总结了我国海洋卫星数据应用发展现状, 特别是海洋卫星数据接收、处理、管理、应用等方面的情况, 并分析、探讨了我国海洋科学研究对卫星数据的需求, 以及我国海洋卫星数据科学应用存在的问题和发展策略。     

Main models and distribution patterns of gas reservoirs in large-medium gas fields of China

Based on characteristics and trap types of gas reservoirs in large and medium gas fields in China, 4 gas reservoir models have been established:(i) structural trap gas reservoir model I, formed earlier than or simutaneously with generating of gases; (ii) structural trap gas reservoir model II, formed later than generating of gases; (iii) fossil weathered residuum gas reservoir model; and (iV) mud diapir abnormal temperature and pressure gas reservoir model. Distribution patterns of large-medium gas fields are described with the concept of “sealed compartment”. It is concluded that the inner-compartment area, marginal area of the compartment and the areas between two overlapped sealed compartments are the most favourable areas for discovering large-medium gas fields. Project supported by the “85–102” Chinese National Key Science and Technology Project.     

军队参与国际重大自然灾害救援行动工作机制建设的思考

向遭受严重自然灾害的国家或地区提供人道主义紧急支援,是各国军队在和平时期的重要使命。目前中国军队还没有成建制地出国参加过重大自然灾害的国际救援。本文介绍了联合国重大自然灾害国际救援行动协调工作机制、联合国框架下的军队资源参与灾害救援的工作机制。结合印尼地震海啸、海地地震等灾害中各国军队救援的情况,对我国军队将来参与国际重大自然灾害救援,在法律、预案和工作机制准备方面进行了分析,并提出了建议。