Attribution of trends in meteorological drought during 1960–2016 over the Loess Plateau,China

This study uses two forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI), namely the PDSI_TH(potential evapotranspiration estimated-by the Thornthwaite equation) and the PDSI_PM(potential evapotranspiration estimated by the FAO Penman-Monteith equation), to characterize the meteorological drought trends during 1960–2016 in the Loess Plateau(LP) and its four subregions. By designing a series of numerical experiments, we mainly investigated various climatic factors' contributions to the drought trends at annual, summer, and autumn time scales. Overall, the drying trend in the PDSI_TH is much larger than that in the PDSI_PM. The former is more sensitive to air temperature than precipitation, while the latter is the most sensitive to precipitation among all meteorological factors. Increasing temperature results in a decreasing trend(drying) in the PDSI_TH, which is further aggravated by decreasing precipitation, jointly leading to a relatively severe drying trend. For the PDSI_PM that considers more comprehensive climatic factors, the drying trend is partly counteracted by the declining wind speed and solar radiation. Therefore, the PDSI_PM ultimately shows a much smaller drying trend in the past decades.     

汶川8.0级地震前BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到的地形变异常现象

地倾斜连续观测是地壳形变观测研究中重要内容。汶川8.0级地震前,布设在四川德阳金河测点的新型BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到了明显的地形变异常现象。分析其观测结果可知,汶川8.0级地震前约半月时间内德阳金河测点的地倾斜运动速度较过去的平均运动水平提高了数十倍,且震前地表快速倾斜的方向在N25°W左右。除此之外,德阳金河BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪测点还观测到较为完整的,对应于可以反映地表应力集中、释放过程的震前地表破裂过程。上述现象为今后研究强震孕育机理提供了重要的信息。介绍与分析了布设在龙门山断裂带附近的其它类型地倾斜仪在震前的观测结果。事实证明,BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪在强震前的浅表过程监测中具有重要意义,值得在今后的地震前兆台网工作中进行推广。     

龙门山山前地带的地震活动

对于龙门山山前地带的地震活动,还很少有人进行研究,似乎至今尚未见到有公开发表的文献.但是,龙门山山前地带是人口稠密、经济发达的地区,又紧邻特大城市--成都市,在汶川大地震后,人们对于龙门山山前地带的地震活动给予了更多的关注,研究这一问题具有极为重大的意义.笔者认为,龙门山山前地带既应当包括著名的龙门山山前隐伏断裂带,也应当包括主要在邛崃市境内的天台山一出江雁列带.     

Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

一个海气耦合模式对东亚夏季气候预测潜力的评估

利用一个具有较高分辨率的海气耦合模式SINTEX-F(Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change coupled GCM)的多年回报结果,评估了该海气耦合模式对东亚区域,尤其是中国地区气候异常的预测潜力.与观测实况的比较结果表明:SINTEX-F模式对夏季降水、500 hPa高度场和地表气温都有一定的预测技巧,但是相比而言降水与高度场的回报技巧要高于地表气温;而且耦合模式对东亚地区气候异常的主要空间分布和年际变化特征也有较好的预测潜力,对500 hPa高度场效果较好;对降水异常的年际变化也有一定的预测潜力,尤其是我国中部地区效果较好,但是模式预测的降水异常的幅值较观测相对偏弱;此外对我国西部的极端气候也有一定的预测潜力.     

基于混沌吸引子的复杂农业系统预测模型研究

农业生产是自然再生产和经济再生产有机结合的过程，农业系统是高度耦合了自然生态、社会经济系统等的复杂大系统，具有非线性和耗散性特征。复杂农业系统要素非线性作用所表现的系统行为形成农业系统的整个演化轨迹。从长期演化来看，由于系统内部自组织作用、系统协同和外部随机扰动的作用使得农业系统出现混沌现象，故复杂系统具有长期不可预测性。本文根据复杂农业系统的预测规范，重构复杂农业系统相空间，建立了基于“混沌吸引子”的非线性混沌动力学预测模型，并以成都的相关数据进行分析验证。     

峨眉山大火成岩省太和花岗岩的成因及构造意义

攀西地区的太和花岗质岩体和赋存超大型钒钛磁铁矿矿床的辉长岩体在空间上共生,成因上均与峨眉山地幔柱头的上升密切相关.太和花岗质岩体主要由超碱质花岗岩和石英正长岩及少量正长岩组成;富含高场强元素并具高Ga/Al值(3.74～5.63),显示典型A型花岗岩的特征.花岗岩、正长岩和辉长岩的Nb/Ta和Zr/Hf值与洋岛玄武岩(OIB)的相应比值近似.花岗质岩石具较低的87Sr/86Sr初始值(0.7025～0.7049)和正的εNd(t)值(1.9～3.5),与辉长岩的值相近[(87Sr/86Sr)i =0.7049～0.7052; εNd(t) =2.4～3.3].太和花岗质岩体的εNd(t)为正值,显示地幔柱来源的底侵玄武质岩浆对其形成起主要作用.辉长质和花岗质岩石具相似的钕同位素组成,表明其母岩浆来自于同一源区.我们认为太和花岗质侵入体主要由底侵于下地壳的玄武质岩浆分异出的花岗质熔体侵位及随后经结晶分异而形成.因此,晚古生代时幔源岩浆底侵造成的地壳增生在峨眉山大火成岩省中表现极为显著.     

涡北河网区三维地震采集技术

涡北勘探区属于河网地带,难以进行正常的地震施工。为此,本文提出了一种以规则束状观测为基础和特殊观测系统相结合的数据采集方法。该方法适应了这种复杂的地表条件,获得了"空白区"的地震资料,为今后类似地表条件地区的三维地震勘探提供了经验。      

Inhomogeneous features in mel-yu frontal cloud system

The structure of radar echo in stratiform cloud which was found in mei-yu frontal cloud system is generally inhomogeneous, especially in the structure of bright band echoes. The inhomogeneous structure of warm region in stratiform cloud and the shower feature of precipitation are closely related to the inhomogeneous structure of bright band and convective cells embedded in stratiform cloud.During Summer time the mei-yu cloud system is an important precipitating system in the southern part of China. To study its structure is of great significance for weather forecast and understanding the physical processes of cloud and precipitation. Therefore, we have observed mei-yu frontal cloud system by use of 711 type radar (3 cm) and airplane at Tunxi, Anhui Province since 1979. It was found that the structure of stratiform cloud, especially the structure of its warm region appears to be inhomogeneous1),2). This is a significant feature of cloud structure in mei-yu frontal cloud system. In this paper, we shall further analyse this inhomogeneous structure of stratiform cloud and study its effect on the precipitation.     

气温日较差研究进展:变化趋势及其影响因素

从日较差的变化趋势、影响因素以及人类活动对气候变化影响的指示3个方面对日较差的研究进行了总结和概括。观测数据以及气候模式模拟的结果表明,全球气温日较差在近半个多世纪以来呈下降趋势,而这种下降趋势不仅仅是自然变化的结果,还受到人类活动的影响。辐射、云量、气溶胶、下垫面的变化、水汽、降水以及航迹云等因素都能对日较差的变化造成影响。日较差的"周末效应"以及城市化过程中日较差的变化相对于平均气温的变化,能够更有效地指示人类活动对气候变化的影响。