Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

Climate Dynamics - We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing...     

Sulfur cycling at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: A multiple sulfur isotope approach

The role of sulfur in two hydrothermal vent systems, the Logatchev hydrothermal field at 14°45′N/44°58′W and several different vent sites along the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (SMAR) between 4°48′S and 9°33′S and between 12°22′W and 13°12′W, is examined by utilizing multiple sulfur isotope and sulfur concentration data. Isotope compositions for sulfide minerals and vent H₂S from different SMAR sites range from + 1.5 to + 8.9‰ in δ³⁴S and from + 0.001 to + 0.051‰ in Δ³³S. These data indicate mixing of mantle sulfur with sulfur from seawater sulfate. Combined δ³⁴S and Δ³³S systematics reveal that vent sulfide from SMAR is characterized by a sulfur contribution from seawater sulfate between 25 and 33%. This higher contribution, compared with EPR sulfide, indicates increased seawater sulfate reduction at MAR, because of a deeper seated magma chamber and longer fluid upflow path length, and points to fundamental differences with respect to subsurface structures and fluid evolution at slow and fast spreading mid-ocean ridges.Additionally, isotope data uncover non-equilibrium isotopic exchange between dissolved sulfide and sulfate in an anhydrite bearing zone below the vent systems at fluid temperatures between 335 and 400 °C. δ³⁴S values between + 0.2 to + 8.8‰ for dissolved and precipitated sulfide from Logatchev point to the same mixing process between mantle sulfur and sulfur from seawater sulfate as at SMAR. δ³⁴S values between ? 24.5 and + 6.5‰ and Δ³³S values between + 0.001 and + 0.125‰ for sulfide-bearing sediments and mafic/ultramafic host rocks from drill cores taken in the region of Logatchev indicate a clear contribution of biogenic sulfides formed via bacterial sulfate reduction. Basalts and basaltic glass from SMAR sites with Δ³³S = ? 0.008‰ reveal lower Δ³³S lower values than suggested on the basis of previously published isotopic measurements of terrestrial materials.We conclude that the combined use of both δ³⁴S and Δ³³S provides a more detailed picture of the sulfur cycling in hydrothermal systems at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and uncovers systematic differences to hydrothermal sites at different mid-ocean ridge sites. Multiple sulfur isotope measurements allow identification of incomplete isotope exchange in addition to isotope mixing as a second important factor influencing the isotopic composition of dissolved sulfide during fluid upflow. Furthermore, based on Δ³³S we are able to clearly distinguish biogenic from hydrothermal sulfides in sediments even when δ³⁴S were identical.     

A Plan to Push Limits? Investigating the ecologically sustainable development dimensions of Melbourne's Central Region sustainable water strategy

Drawing upon theory from the field of urban political ecology, we analyse a major strategic water plan for Melbourne, Australia—the Sustainable water strategy for the Central Region, published in 2006. We assess the extent to which the strategy identified and addressed ecological sustainability in terms of: cultural frames; ecological context; social equity; and engagement processes. We identify that the strategy's framing of water was largely separate from its social and ecological context. This framing resulted in the importance of issues such as environmental flows, social equity and cultural values being diminished, thus avoiding the inevitable confrontation with environmental limits needed to ensure long-term ecological sustainability. Our analysis shows that the discursive dominance of economics limited the response to persuasive scientific arguments for greater ecological consideration in the strategy. Our findings suggest that broadening engagement with the diverse ways in which water is valued is likely to contribute to more equitable and ecologically sustainable water futures.     

Ethnic Place Identity Within A Parisian Neighborhood

The Goutte d'Or neighborhood of Paris has long been seen as an impoverished yet colorful quarter of the city. In recent years, it has also developed a reputation as a center for immigrants. Three populations now share the neighborhood: the European French, the Maghrebi immigrant population and their children, and the newest population of migrants from former Francophone colonies. This paper examines how the Goutte d'Or's social and ethnic identity is revealed in the built environment and in its social and economic activity. This neighborhood demonstrates how different communities and place identities coexist. It also shows how global networks of migration, exchange, and visits infuse local places. The Goutte d'Or distills many aspects of French immigrant identities, providing an example for increasing numbers of immigrant neighborhoods in France and across the world.     

Enrichments of the mantle sources beneath the Southern Volcanic Zone (Andes) by fluids and melts derived from abraded upper continental crust

Mafic basaltic-andesitic volcanic rocks from the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) exhibit a northward increase in crustal components in primitive arc magmas from the Central through the Transitional and Northern SVZ segments. New elemental and Sr–Nd-high-precision Pb isotope data from the Quaternary arc volcanic centres of Maipo (NSVZ) and Infernillo and Laguna del Maule (TSVZ) are argued to reflect mainly their mantle source and its melting. For the C-T-NSVZ, we identify two types of source enrichment: one, represented by Antuco in CSVZ, but also present northward along the arc, was dominated by fluids which enriched a pre-metasomatic South Atlantic depleted MORB mantle type asthenosphere. The second enrichment was by melts having the characteristics of upper continental crust (UCC), distinctly different from Chile trench sediments. We suggest that granitic rocks entered the source mantle by means of subduction erosion in response to the northward increasingly strong coupling of the converging plates. Both types of enrichment had the same Pb isotope composition in the TSVZ with no significant component derived from the subducting oceanic crust. Pb–Sr–Nd isotopes indicate a major crustal compositional change at the southern end of the NSVZ. Modelling suggests addition of around 2 % UCC for Infernillo and 5 % for Maipo.     

Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.     

P–T–t evidence for mechanisms of vertical tectonic motion in a contractional orogen: north-western US and Canadian Cordillera

The >1800 km long Coast Mountains–North Cascades orogen of the Canadian Cordillera and north-western US developed as a continental magmatic arc. Metamorphic rocks in the orogen contain widespread evidence for burial of supracrustal rocks to depths of c. 40 km, followed by nearly isothermal decompression to depths of <10 km. Near many shallowly-emplaced, mid-Cretaceous plutons, low-pressure contact metamorphic effects were overprinted by high-pressure regional metamorphic minerals and textures, as evidenced by kyanite±staurolite pseudomorphs after andalusite in metapelitic rocks. Therefore, near-pluton rocks record the loading history of the orogen. Metapelitic rocks not associated with plutons only preserve evidence for high-pressure conditions and/or high-temperature decompression, as indicated, for example, by sillimanite and cordierite after kyanite and garnet, respectively. Petrological evidence for burial and decompression is therefore recorded in different rocks. Various regions of the orogen differ in timing of metamorphism, the overall shape of P–T paths and the relative timing and regional extent of the high-pressure event, but most of these data and observations are consistent with thrusting and/or pure shear thickening as primary loading mechanisms throughout the orogen, as opposed to magma-dominated loading. This interpretation is further supported by comparison with thermal models, which demonstrate that the P–T paths are consistent with simultaneous thrusting and folding at a high initial geothermal gradient (35–40 °C km^?1) in much of the orogen. A high geothermal gradient supports tectonic models invoking intra-arc contraction and suggests that magmatism played an important role in regional temperature-time paths. This tectonic-thermal history may be typical of other contractional orogens and illustrates the importance of large vertical displacement of crust in magmatic arcs.     

Climate change and mental health: an exploratory case study from Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada

As the impacts from anthropogenic climate change are increasing globally, people are experiencing dramatic shifts in weather, temperature, wildlife and vegetation patterns, and water and food quality and availability. These changes impact human health and well-being, and resultantly, climate change has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century. Recently, research is beginning to indicate that changes in climate, and the subsequent disruption to the social, economic, and environmental determinants of health, may cause increased incidences and prevalence of mental health issues, emotional responses, and large-scale sociopsychological changes. Through a multi-year, community-led, exploratory case study conducted in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, this research qualitatively explores the impacts of climate change on mental health and well-being in an Inuit context. Drawing from 67 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2010 and October 2010 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that changes in weather, snow and ice stability and extent, and wildlife and vegetation patterns attributed to climate change were negatively impacting mental health and well-being due to disruptions in land-based activities and a loss of place-based solace and cultural identity. Participants reported that changes in climate and environment increased family stress, enhanced the possibility of increased drug and alcohol usage, amplified previous traumas and mental health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation. While a preliminary case study, these exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional mental health stressor for resource-dependent communities and provide a baseline for further research.     

The UNFCCC as a negotiation forum: towards common but more differentiated responsibilities

The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDRC) captures the idea that it is the common responsibility of states to protect and restore the environment but that the levels and forms of states’ individual responsibilities may be differentiated according to their own national circumstances. This principle has shaped the evolution of the climate regime and has played an important role in promoting compromise and agreement. It is argued that some twenty years after the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the principle of CBDRC remains as relevant as ever. The practice of Parties under the regime and, most recently, the concerted efforts to shape and flesh out the meaning of the principle, underscore the central role that it plays. At the same time, the binary understanding of CBDRC in the Kyoto Protocol is being replaced with a more nuanced, multifaceted understanding. The evolving interpretation of CBDRC is considered, and its continued relevance as the nucleus of a global burden-sharing regime for addressing climate change is demonstrated.

Policy relevance

The development of a common understanding of the principle of CBDRC is essential for the burden sharing and responsibilities under a future climate agreement. The CBDRC principle captures the idea that it is the common responsibility of states to protect and restore the environment, but that the levels and forms of states’ individual responsibilities may be differentiated according to their own national circumstances. This article informs the international climate change negotiations by considering the development of the principle of CBDRC under the UNFCCC over time. It is concluded that, although there has been a significant shift in how the principle is understood, it remains crucial to the integrity and stability of the climate regime.