Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales

Trends in climate time series are often nonlinear and temporally-asymmetric, i.e. the trend is different for different seasons and/or hours of the day. Here a method is developed that allows the nonlinearity and temporal asymmetry of a trend to be investigated simultaneously. First, nonlinear trend components are extracted from a univariate time series, by adapting a nonparametric dimension-reduction method. Then, the nonlinear trend components are substituted into a regression model in which the periodic mean component and the periodic variation in the amplitude of the nonlinear trend are modeled using harmonic functions of the seasonal and diurnal periods. Third, trend patterns in the positive and negative anomalies are investigated, by extending the nonlinear trend model using indicator variables. Fourth, a non-local inferential test is developed to test the statistical significance of the trend patterns. The nonlinear trend model is applied to a simulated time series, as well as to long-term high-resolution temperature records from five Southern Hemisphere sites: Lucas Heights, Sydney Airport, Cape Grim, Macquarie Island and Law Dome. Our method should be generally useful for identifying the effect of both climate-related factors and observation/site-related factors on seasonal and diurnal trends in meteorological data series.     

Paleokarst system development in the San Andres Formation, Permian Basin, revealed by seismic characterization

Paleokarst systems are one of the major factors resulting in carbonate reservoir heterogeneity and compartmentalization. Nevertheless, few effective workflows have been proposed to map the 3D distribution of such systems. We describe a detailed seismic characterization approach integrating core, well log and rock physics analysis, to reveal a complex subsurface paleokarst system in the San Andres Formation, Permian basin, West Texas. In the area of high volume production, the collapsed paleokarst system is characterized by irregularly developed crackle and fracture breccias, mosaic breccias and cave fillings in the Upper San Andres Formation, which are delineated using seismic acoustic impedance. Along the transition from platform to basin, the paleokarst system is marked by a linear collapse including sags and small vertical faults that are recognizable in seismic imaging. Production data indicates that tight paleokarst zones cause reservoir compartmentalization and influence fluid communication between wells. The complex paleokarst system development is explained using a carbonate platform hydrological model, an outcrop analogue similar to modern marine hydrological environments within carbonate islands. Our method of model development for complex subsurface paleokarst systems may be applicable to other paleoenvironments.     

Regional Be production rate calibration for the past 12 ka deduced from the radiocarbon-dated Grøtlandsura and Russenes rock avalanches at 69° N, Norway

Two rock avalanches in Troms County – the Grøtlandsura and Russenes – were selected as CRONUS-EU natural cosmogenic ¹⁰Be production-rate calibration sites because they (a) preserve large boulders that have been continuously exposed to cosmic irradiation since their emplacement; (b) contain boulders with abundant quartz phenocrysts and veins with low concentrations of naturally-occurring ⁹Be (typically < 1.5 ppb); and (c) have reliable minimum radiocarbon ages of 11,424 ± 108 cal yr BP and 10,942 ± 77 cal yr BP (1σ), respectively. Quartz samples (n = 6) from these two sites contained between 4.28 × 10⁴ and 5.06 × 10⁴ at ¹⁰Be/g using the 1.387 Myr ¹⁰Be half-life. Determination of these concentrations accounts for topographic and self-shielding, and effects on nuclide production due to isostatic rebound are shown to be negligible. Persistent, constant snow and moss cover cannot be proven, but if taken into consideration they may have reduced ¹⁰Be concentrations by 10%. Using the ¹⁰Be half-life of 1.387 Myr and the Stone scaling scheme, and accounting for snow- and moss-cover, we calculate an error-weighted mean total ¹⁰Be production rate of 4.12 ± 0.19 at/g/yr (1σ). A corresponding error-weighted mean spallogenic ¹⁰Be production rate is 3.96 ± 0.16 at/g/yr (1σ), respectively. These are in agreement within uncertainty with other ¹⁰Be production rates in the literature, but are significantly, statistically lower than the global average ¹⁰Be production rate. This research indicates, like other recent studies, that the production of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be in quartz is lower than previously established by other production-rate calibration projects. Similarly, our findings indicate that regional cosmogenic production rates should be used for determining exposure ages of landforms in order to increase the accuracy of those ages. As such, using the total ¹⁰Be production rate from our study, we determine an error-weighted mean surface-exposure age of a third rock avalanche in Troms County (the Hølen avalanche) to be 7.5 ± 0.3 kyr (1σ). This age suggests that the rock avalanche occurred shortly after the 8.2 kyr cooling event, just as the radiocarbon ages of the Grøtlandsura and Russenes avalanches confirm field evidence that those rock-slope failures occurred shortly after deglaciation.     

Timing and source constraints on the relationship between mafic and felsic intrusions in the Emeishan large igneous province

Several I- and A-type granite, syenite plutons and spatially associated, giant Fe-Ti-V deposit-bearing mafic-ultramafic layered intrusions occur in the Pan-Xi (Panzhihua-Xichang) area within the inner zone of the Emeishan large igneous province (ELIP). These complexes are interpreted to be related to the Emeishan mantle plume. We present LA-ICP-MS and SIMS zircon U-Pb ages and Hf-Nd isotopic compositions for the gabbros, syenites and granites from these complexes. The dating shows that the age of the felsic intrusive magmatism (256.2 ± 3.0-259.8 ± 1.6 Ma) is indistinguishable from that of the mafic intrusive magmatism (255.4 ± 3.1-259.5 ± 2.7 Ma) and represents the final phase of a continuous magmatic episode that lasted no more than 10 Myr. The upper gabbros in the mafic-ultramafic intrusions are generally more isotopically enriched (lower ε_Nd and ε_Hf) than the middle and lower gabbros, suggesting that the upper gabbros have experienced a higher level of crustal contamination than the lower gabbros. The significantly positive ε_Hf(t) values of the A-type granites and syenites (+4.9 to +10.8) are higher than those of the upper gabbros of the associated mafic intrusion, which shows that they cannot be derived by fractional crystallization of these bodies. They are however identical to those of the mafic enclaves (+7.0 to +11.4) and middle and lower gabbros, implying that they are cogenetic. We suggest that they were generated by fractionation of large-volume, plume-related basaltic magmas that ponded deep in the crust. The deep-seated magma chamber erupted in two stages: the first near a density minimum in the basaltic fractionation trend and the second during the final stage of fractionation when the magma was a low density Fe-poor, Si-rich felsic magma. The basaltic magmas emplaced in the shallow-level magma chambers differentiated to form mafic-ultramafic layered intrusions accompanied by a small amount of crustal assimilation through roof melting. Evolved A-type granites (synenites and syenodiorites) were produced dominantly by crystallization in the deep crustal magma chamber. In contrast, the I-type granites have negative ε_Nd(t) [−6.3 to −7.5] and ε_Hf(t) [−1.3 to −6.7] values, with the Nd model ages () of 1.63−1.67 Ga and Hf model ages () of 1.56−1.58 Ga, suggesting that they were mainly derived from partial melting of Mesoproterozoic crust. In combination with previous studies, this study also shows that plume activity not only gave rise to reworking of ancient crust, but also significant growth of juvenile crust in the center of the ELIP.     

Mechanisms controlling silicon isotope distribution in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

The distribution of silicon isotopes along a meridional transect at 140°W longitude in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific was used to test the hypothesis that δ³⁰Si of silicic acid in surface waters should correlate with net silica production rates (gross silica production minus silica dissolution) rather than rates of gross silica production due to the opposing Si isotope fractionations associated with silica production and silica dissolution. Variations in δ³⁰Si appeared significantly correlated with net silica production rates in equatorial surface waters and not with gross production rates. Around the Equator, values of δ³⁰Si as low as deep water values occurred in the upper mesopelagic in a zone of net silica dissolution and high detrital biogenic silica content, where the release of low δ³⁰Si silicic acid from opal dissolution would be expected to decrease δ³⁰Si. The δ³⁰Si of the deep water at 140°W appears constant for depths >2000 m and is similar to the deep water at 110°W. This study brings to light the importance of considering Si fractionation during diatom silica dissolution, the biological fractionation during silica production and physical factors such as currents and mixing with adjacent water masses when interpreting silicon isotope distributions.     

Tectonostratigraphic evolution of the Labrador margin, Atlantic Canada

The Labrador continental margin provides a rich source of data with which to study the relationships between stratigraphy, tectonics and paleoenvironment. We have completed a regional seismic interpretation and integrated this with new biostratigraphic data, based on analyses of palynomorphs from wells in the Hopedale and Saglek Basins which occur on this margin. Our results are summarized in a tectonostratigraphic chart, which displays new and consistent age control for the major lithostratigraphic units and provides more precise evaluation of their depositional and paleoenvironmental history. We have identified and dated six regional unconformities in the wells and we can recognize several others on the seismic data. The older unconformities (Cretaceous) are related to the tectonics of rifting and seafloor spreading, and may delineate the onset of different stages of the rift process. In the Paleocene-Early Eocene, unconformity development was influenced by episodic volcanism due to the passage of the proto-Iceland hotspot to the north and to a major change in spreading direction in the Labrador Sea. Many of these unconformities are also identified in offshore southwest Greenland and the Grand Banks, suggesting widespread controlling mechanisms. During the post-seafloor spreading stage the effects of mass wasting and slumping, and of paleoenvironmental controls on the stratigraphy, were more pronounced. We discuss the petroleum potential of the Hopedale Basin in terms of the structures we see on the seismic data, and highlight the Bjarni Formation, which likely contains the most prospective source and reservoir rocks in this Basin.     

Current and future atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa over Greenland simulated by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 global models

The Greenland ice sheet is projected to be strongly affected by global warming. These projections are either issued from downscaling methods (such as Regional Climate Models) or they come directly from General Circulation Models (GCMs). In this context, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the daily atmospheric circulation simulated by the GCMs, since it is used as forcing for downscaling methods. Thus, we use an automatic circulation type classification based on two indices (Euclidean distance and Spearman rank correlation using the daily 500 hPa geopotential height) to evaluate the ability of the GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases to simulate the main circulation types over Greenland during summer. For each circulation type, the GCMs are compared to three reanalysis datasets on the basis of their frequency and persistence differences. For the current climate (1961–1990), we show that most of the GCMs do not reproduce the expected frequency and the persistence of the circulation types and that they simulate poorly the observed daily variability of the general circulation. Only a few GCMs can be used as reliable forcings for downscaling methods over Greenland. Finally, when applying the same approach to the future projections of the GCMs, no significant change in the atmospheric circulation over Greenland is detected, besides a generalised increase of the geopotential height due to a uniform warming of the atmosphere.     

Changes in diatom assemblages since pre-industrial times in 40 reference lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (northwestern Ontario,Canada)

Diatom assemblages in recent versus pre-industrial sediments were examined in 40 relatively undisturbed lakes from the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA). The ELA region of northwestern Ontario receives low amounts of acidic deposition and the lakes have been minimally disturbed by watershed development or other human activities. Consequently, this region represents an important location to detect possible changes in lakes due to climate change. In over half of the lakes, planktonic taxa (especially Discostella stelligera) increased between 10 and 40% since pre-industrial times. Changes in diatom assemblages are consistent with taxa that would benefit from enhanced stratification and a longer ice-free season. We hypothesized that there should be a relationship between stratification and measured chemical and physical characteristics of the study lakes. Multiple correlation analysis was undertaken to see the relationship between planktonic taxa and D. stelligera since pre-industrial times and the physical and chemical characteristics of the study lakes. Lake depth was consistently identified as an important variable. The timing of the increase in planktonic taxa within cores from these lakes will be needed to rule out other possible regional changes that may also be occurring in the ELA region.     

A new radiospectrograph at Culgoora

IPS Radio and Space Services (IPS) commissioned a new radiospectrograph for solar observations in May 1992. The instrument operates over a frequency range from 18 MHz to 1.8 GHz and samples every three seconds. Digital data acquisition permits a variety of analysis procedures that were not previously possible. The operation of the new instrument is briefly described and some example radiospectrograms are presented.