A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century

An overview of the PRUDENCE fine resolution climate model experiments for Europe is presented in terms of their climate change signals, in particular 2-meter temperature and precipitation. A comparison is made with regard to the seasonal variation in climate change response of the different models participating in the project. In particular, it will be possible to check how representative a particular PRUDENCE regional experiment is of the overall set in terms of seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. This is of relevance for such further studies and impact models that for practical reasons cannot use all the PRUDENCE regional experiments. This paper also provides some guidelines for how to select subsets of the PRUDENCE regional experiments according to such main sources of uncertainty in regional climate simulations as the choice of the emission scenario and of the driving global climate model.     

Rainfall input of toxaphene to a South Carolina estuary

Toxaphene concentrations in rainfall over a South Carolina salt marsh were monitored from 1976–1978. This insecticide is toxic to some organisms in the low μg/kg range and causes sublethal effects in the very low ng/kg range. Rainfall was sampled by both continuously exposed collectors and by collectors which were exposed only during actual precipitation. Toxaphene concentrations in individual rainstorms showed a high day-to-day variation, and in general were 10–100 times higher than PCB and DDT levels. Washout ratios for toxaphene were higher than those reported for other chlorinated hydrocarbons, but lower than those of trace metals. During and immediately following the summer use season, toxaphene levels in rain exceeded by several times those concentrations reported to produce bone damage to young fish in laboratory experiments. The estimated aerial input of toxaphene to the 26 km² estuary was 1.2 kg over a 4-month period. Most of this input appeared to be due to rainfall rather than dry deposition. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY010 00007     

Possible lower crustal rocks recovered on Leg 31 by deep-sea drilling in the Philippine Sea

Compressional wave velocities measured in gabbroic rocks and metabasites recovered from Site 293 of Leg 31 in the Philippine Sea (on the Central Basin Fault) are correlative with seismic velocities determined for Layer 3. The lower crustal origin for these rocks suggested by this data is further supported by the similarity between these samples, dredge haul samples from fracture zones in the main ocean basins and rocks found in ophiolite complexes. These plutonic rocks were possibly introduced to the sea floor by movements along the Central Basin Fault, a major tectonic feature in the Philippine Sea, or formed as part of new ocean crust within a leaky transform fault.     

Trophic cascades and future harmful algal blooms within ice-free Arctic Seas north of Bering Strait: A simulation analysis

Within larger ice-free regions of the western Arctic Seas, subject to ongoing trophic cascades induced by past overfishing, as well as to possible future eutrophication of the drainage basins of the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers, prior very toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) – first associated with ∼100 human deaths near Sitka, Alaska in 1799 – may soon expand. Blooms of calcareous coccolithophores in the Bering Sea during 1997–1998 were non-toxic harbingers of the subsequent increments of other non-siliceous phytoplankton. But, now saxitoxic dinoflagellates, e.g. Alexandrium tamarense, were instead found by us within the adjacent downstream Chukchi Sea during SBI cruises of 2002 and 2003. A previous complex, coupled biophysical model had been validated earlier by ship-board observations from the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas during the summer of 2002. With inclusion of phosphorus as another chemical state variable to modulate additional competition by recently observed nitrogen-fixers, we now explore here the possible consequences of altered composition of dominant phytoplankton functional groups [diatoms, microflagellates, prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis colonies, coccolithophores, diazotrophs, and dinoflagellates] in relation to increases of the toxic A. tamarense, responding to relaxation of grazing pressure by herbivores north of Bering Strait as part of a continuing trophic cascade. Model formulation was guided by validation observations obtained during 2002–2004 from: cruises of the SBI, CHINARE, and CASES programs; moored arrays in Bering Strait; other RUSALCA cruises around Wrangel Island; and SBI helicopter surveys of the shelf-break regions of the Arctic basin. Our year-long model scenarios during 2002–2003 indicate that post bloom silica-limitation of diatoms, after smaller simulated spring grazing losses, led to subsequent competitive advantages in summer for the coccolithophores, dinoflagellates, and diazotrophs. Immediate top-down control is exerted by imposed grazing pressures of the model’s herbivores and bottom-up control is also effected by light-, nitrate-, ammonium-, silicate-, and phosphate-modulated competition among the six functional groups of the simulated phytoplankton community. Similar to the history of the southern North Sea adjacent to the Rhine River, possible farming of northwestern Alaska and Canada, in conjunction with other human activities of ice retreat and overfishing, may lead to future exacerbations of poisonous phytoplankton. These potential killers include both toxic dinoflagellate and diazotroph HABs, deadly to terrestrial and marine mammals, as well as those of prymnesiophytes, some of which have already foamed beaches, while others have killed fishes of European waters.     

Validation of interannual simulations from the 1/8° global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

A 1/8° global version of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) is used for simulation of upper-ocean quantities on interannual time scales. The model spans the global ocean from 80°S to a complete Arctic cap, and includes 19 terrain-following σ- and 21 fixed z-levels. The global NCOM assimilates three-dimensional (3D) temperature and salinity fields produced by the Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) which generates synthetic temperature and salinity profiles based on ocean surface observations. Model-data intercomparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of NCOM in predicting upper-ocean quantities such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and mixed layer depth (MLD). Subsurface temperature and salinity are evaluated as well. An extensive set of buoy observations is used for this validation. Where possible, the model validation is performed between year-long time series obtained from the model and time series from the buoys. The statistical analyses include the calculation of dimensionless skill scores (SS), which are positive if statistical skill is shown and equal to one for perfect SST simulations. Model SST comparisons with year-long SST time series from all 83 buoys give a median SS value of 0.82. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with the year-long subsurface temperature time series from 24 buoys showed that the model is able to predict temperatures down to 500 m reasonably well, with positive SS values ranging from 0.18 to 0.97. Intercomparisons of MLD reveal that the model MLD is usually shallower than the buoy MLD by an average of about 15 m. Annual mean SSS and subsurface salinity biases between the model and buoy values are small. A comparison of SST between NCOM and a satellite-based Pathfinder data set demonstrates that the model has a root-mean-square (RMS) SST difference of 0.61 °C over the global ocean. Spatial variations of kinetic energy fields from NCOM show agree with historical observations. Based on these results, it is concluded that the global NCOM presented in this paper is able to predict upper-ocean quantities with reasonable accuracy for both coastal and open ocean locations.     

The geophysical significance of oceanic plagiogranite

Rocks ranging in composition from trondhjemite to diorite (plagiogranites) have been recovered from ocean ridges and are common constituents of ophiolites. Velocities and densities of diorite and trondhjemite from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge are shown to differ significantly from similar properties of metadolerite and gabbro. Compressional (V_p) and shear (V_s) velocities of plagiogranites are relatively low (V_p = 4.78–5.91km/s at1kbar,V_s = 2.81–3.37km/s at1kbar), as are densities (2.57–2.64 g/cm³) and Poisson's ratios (0.24–0.27). These data lend strong support to the probable existence of a low-velocity/density zone within layer 3 of the oceanic crust. Based on observations in ophiolites, it is postulated that this zone can be up to 1 km in thickness and is laterally discontinuous.     

Time scales of large volume silicic magma systems: Sr isotopic systematics of phenocrysts and glass from the Bishop Tuff,Long Valley,California

The initial Sr isotopic compositions of glass and mineral separates from the 0.74 Ma Bishop Tuff ashflow in eastern California were determined to investigate the time scales of magmatic processes in a large silicic system. It was found that there is substantial isotopic heterogeneity, both between eruptive units and between glass and phenocryst phases of individual units. The frist-erupted, lower temperature units generally have higher initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr than later crupted, higher temperature units. Within each unit, feldspar phenocrysts have the lowest ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, associated glass has higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, and biotite phenocrysts have the highest ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. These isotopic differences were produced by processes in the magma chamber and not by post-eruptive alteration. Two samples were similar Fe–Ti oxide temperatures but from widely separated localities have nearly identifical Sr isotopic characteristics, indicating the existence of compositionally uniform layers of substantial volume within the chamber. Trace element data indicate that the feldspars crystallized from a liquid represented by the associated glass, and that the feldspar-glass pairs are not accidental. The rhyolitic liquids of the Bishoptuff magma chamber apparently experienced increasing ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr at a rate too fast for feldspar phenocrysts to remain in isotopic equilibrium. The increasing ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr is caused primarily by radioactive decay of ⁸⁷Rb in the high-Rb/Sr liquids and not primarily by assimilation of radiogenic wall-rock material. A self-consistent model can be constructed to account for all of the isotopic data except for those on biotite phenocrysts. The time scale for evolution of the system is bounded on the high side at about 500 ky by observations made on precaldera lavas, and on the low side at approximately 300 ky by the time necessary to establish homogeneous layers in an actively differentiating chamber. The deduced time scale is consistent with model Rb–Sr ages, which date the differentiation of low temperature liquids from higher temperature liquids, and is compatible with the observed isotopic disequilibrium between feldspars and glass because of the low diffusivity of Sr in fieldspars (<10^-16 cm²/s). The prolonged (about 500 ky) evolution of the Bishop Tuff system was facilitated by a large influx of basaltic material (about 10^-2 km³/y) to the base of the system, which compensated for diffusive heat loss from the top and allowed large volumes of magma to maintain low crystal contents for >3x10⁵ years. The silicic-magma production rate within the Bishop Tuff magma chamber is estimated to be 10^-3km³/y. The growth rate of alkali feldspar is estimated to be about 10^-14 cm/s based on the Sr isotopic difference between sanidine and glass of the lower Bishop Tuff. The biotite population is inferred to be partially (>50 ppm) xenocrystic, the xenocrysts being introduced to the chamber less than one year prior to eruption.