A Quantitative Model of Energy Release and Heating by Time-dependent,Localized Reconnection in a Flare with Thermal Loop-top X-ray Source

We present a quantitative model of the magnetic energy stored and then released through magnetic reconnection for a flare on 26 February 2004. This flare, well observed by RHESSI and TRACE, shows evidence of non-thermal electrons for only a brief, early phase. Throughout the main period of energy release there is a super-hot (T?30 MK) plasma emitting thermal bremsstrahlung atop the flare loops. Our model describes the heating and compression of such a source by localized, transient magnetic reconnection. It is a three-dimensional generalization of the Petschek model, whereby Alfvén-speed retraction following reconnection drives supersonic inflows parallel to the field lines, which form shocks: heating, compressing, and confining a loop-top plasma plug. The confining inflows provide longer life than a freely expanding or conductively cooling plasma of similar size and temperature. Superposition of successive transient episodes of localized reconnection across a current sheet produces an apparently persistent, localized source of high-temperature emission. The temperature of the source decreases smoothly on a time scale consistent with observations, far longer than the cooling time of a single plug. Built from a disordered collection of small plugs, the source need not have the coherent jet-like structure predicted by steady-state reconnection models. This new model predicts temperatures and emission measure consistent with the observations of 26 February 2004. Furthermore, the total energy released by the flare is found to be roughly consistent with that predicted by the model. Only a small fraction of the energy released appears in the super-hot source at any one time, but roughly a quarter of the flare energy is thermalized by the reconnection shocks over the course of the flare. All energy is presumed to ultimately appear in the lower-temperature (T?20 MK) post-flare loops. The number, size, and early appearance of these loops in TRACE’s 171 Å band are consistent with the type of transient reconnection assumed in the model.     

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.     

Preliminary study on the dissolved and colloidal organic carbon in the Zhujiang River estuary

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Détermination expérimentale des paramètres équivalents d'un milieu poreux hétérogène en écoulements uniforme ou radial

Tracer tests are carried out in a heterogeneous porous medium that has a 3D correlated random distribution of the permeabilities. The fitting of numerical models provides the values of equivalent permeability and macrodispersivity characterizing a 2D homogeneous horizontal medium. Different flow configurations are studied: uniform, radial and pump and treat (doublet). The fitted parameter sets are independent of the flow type, except for the doublet. They are greater than the values predicted by stochastic theories, due to the small number of correlation lengths explored by the tracer and the limited extension of the experimental set-up. To cite this article: C. Danquigny, P. Ackerer, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Hybridization of the probability perturbation method with gradient information

Geostatistically based history-matching methods make it possible to devise history-matching strategies that will honor geologic knowledge about the reservoir. However, the performance of these methods is known to be impeded by slow convergence rates resulting from the stochastic nature of the algorithm. It is the purpose of this paper to introduce a method that integrates qualitative gradient information into the probability perturbation method to improve convergence. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated on a synthetic history-matching example. The results indicate that inclusion of qualitative gradient information improves the performance of the probability perturbation method.     

A level-set corrector to an adaptive multiscale permeability prediction

We consider the inverse problem of permeability estimation for two-phase porous-media flow. The novel approach is based on regularization by zonation, where the geometry and size of the regions are chosen adaptively during the optimization procedure. To achieve this, we have utilized level-set functions to represent the permeability. The available data are sparsely distributed in space; hence, it is reasonable to confine the estimation to coarse-scale structures. The level-set approach is able to alter the boundaries between regions of different permeability without strict restrictions on their shape; however, when the data are sparse, a reasonable initial guess for the permeability is required. For this task, we use adaptive multiscale permeability estimation, which has the potential of identifying main permeability variations. These are described by a piecewise constant function, where the constant values are attained on rectangular zones. In the current work, we develop a level-set corrector strategy, assuming adaptive multiscale permeability estimation as a predictor.     

Types of sedimentary environment in alluvial sediments distinguished on the basis of its chemical constitution: the example of the lower course of the Obra river (Western Poland)

Research concerning chemical constitution of alluvial sediments was done in the lower course of the Obra river (Western Poland). The fragment of vertical profile, which consisted of various alluvial sediments (fine sands, peats, and sandy silts) was chosen for detailed analysis. The main research problem was to determine if lithology and chemical constitution of alluvial deposits are interconnected in a distinct way within studied section of the Obra river valley, and, if changes of chemical elements’ concentration could be used to illustrate depositional processes, which take place in riverbed and floodplain. Concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Ca, Mg, and K were determined in collected sediment samples. Next, geochemical groups of alluvial sediments were distinguished using cluster analysis. Investigated changes of chemical elements’ concentration show that there is a distinct border between the environment of organic sediments, which marks the place of former functioning of the Obra riverbed, and sandy silts, which were deposited within floodplain during floods. Besides, floodplain sediments, riverbed sediments, and reductive environment within peat deposits were singled out on the basis of the analysis.     

Permafrost at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in North America

This paper presents three maps that summarize current knowledge as to the extent of Past permafrost and Relict permafrost in North America at approximately the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 25–17 ka BP) and during subsequent deglaciation until c. 10 ka BP. Analysis of the post‐1983 literature suggests that the extent of Past permafrost south of the LGM limit was broader in eastern North America and slightly narrower in the Interior Great Plains than previously mapped. The recognition and dating of Relict permafrost in the nonglaciated terrain of the northwestern Arctic suggests that permafrost may be of great antiquity and can persist under changing climatic conditions. The formation of permafrost features during deglaciation suggests that ice‐proximal climatic conditions remained cold at least long enough for short‐lived permafrost aggradation; a latitudinal gradient is evident in the timing of its development as the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreated.     

A reconstruction of the palaeohydrological conditions of a flood‐plain: a multi‐proxy study from the Grabia River valley mire,central Poland

This study investigated the Grabia River valley mire in central Poland to reconstruct its palaeoenvironmental conditions from the Younger Dryas to the present. We analysed sedimentological, biological and geochemical data from the palaeo‐oxbow lake and valley mire to identify the principal hydrological trends, especially episodes of high water level. During the Lateglacial and Holocene, the Grabia River had a meandering channel, and its hydraulic parameters and the channel dimensions changed in response to climatic oscillations and vegetation development. We identified phases of high flood intensity and high groundwater level that correlate with regional and supraregional climatic events. The frequency and timing of palaeohydroclimatic oscillations show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland and the rest of Europe. We show that various analytical methods, namely, pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera, Chironomidae, sedimentological, geochemical and radiocarbon data, can be effective tools for reconstructing past hydroclimatic changes in palaeo‐oxbow lakes and investigating the effects of past climate changes on river environments. The high sensitivity of the biota, especially Cladocera, to changes in water level permits the reconstruction of palaeoecological changes, especially flood episodes that occurred in the river valley. In particular, the increase in the proportion of sediment‐associated Cladocera and pelagic taxa was closely correlated with floods. Through comparisons with the palaeobiological data, geochemical data allowed the identification of humid phases within the fen associated with a rising groundwater table, direct fluvial activity (floods) and alluvial deposition. We also discuss the limitations of palaeohydrological reconstructions based on these proxies, especially on fossil aquatic invertebrates.