统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-variables and its application to trace studies in geosciences

The "mean value concept" in a mono-linear regression of multi-variables is clarified.Its applications to reconstruction of the past 90-year salinity of the sea surface water in Xisha Islands and to tracing the past 80 ka paleo-geomagnetic events from the Luochuan loess 10Be record are introduced in detail,which show the significance and the potential of the "mean value concept" in geoscience research.     

A non‐baseline algorithm for damage locating in flexural structures using dynamic distributed macro‐strain responses

The concept of distributed strain‐sensing techniques has been proposed in our recent research, which was dedicated to utilizing the strain distributions throughout the full or partial areas of structures to detect arbitrary and unforeseen damage. An algorithm not requiring a detailed analytical model is presented for damage locating in flexural structures through the direct use of dynamic responses recorded by distributed long‐gauge strain sensors. The modal macro‐strain vector (MMSV), which has been proven to have a mapping relation with displacement mode shape, can be extracted directly from macro‐strain time‐series data, from which a damage evaluating index can be derived and used as an indicator for locating damage. Numerical examples are simulated to verify the sensitivity and effectiveness of the index in different cases. Furthermore, experimental investigations on a cantilevered beam with various long‐gauge fibre optic sensors placements are carried out to examine the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equivalent force control method for generalized real‐time substructure testing with implicit integration

This paper presents a new method, called the equivalent force control method, for solving the nonlinear equations of motion in a real‐time substructure test using an implicit time integration algorithm. The method replaces the numerical iteration in implicit integration with a force‐feedback control loop, while displacement control is retained to control the motion of an actuator. The method is formulated in such a way that it represents a unified approach that also encompasses the effective force test method. The accuracy and effectiveness of the method have been demonstrated with numerical simulations of real‐time substructure tests with physical substructures represented by spring and damper elements, respectively. The method has also been validated with actual tests in which a Magnetorheological damper was used as the physical substructure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Basical characteristics of fluid geologic process of interlayer oxidation zone sandstone-type uranium deposit

This paper reveals the physicochemical properties such as component, formulation, genesis, tem-perature, pH, Eh, salinity and pressure of all main alteration fluid of interlayer oxidation zone sand-stone-type uranium deposits after studying the geologic process and geochemistry of internal typical sandstone-type uranium deposits such as Shihongtan deposit in the Turpan-Hami basin, 512 deposit in the Yili basin, Dongsheng deposit in the Ordos basin. The composition of fluid can be divided into two parts based on the analysis of inclusion: one can be affirmed as atmospheric water with ordinary temperature epigenesist according to the character of hydrogen and oxygen isotope of inclusion, the other is natural gas containing gaseous hydrocarbon like CH₄, and CO₂ as well as a little H₂S, CO, H₂, N₂ and so on, it always contains a small quantity of hydrocarbon liquid in petroliferous basins. The fluid property of oxidation alteration zone is always oxidation alkaline, and neutrality or weak acid-weak alkaline and reducibility during the metallizing process, but at secondary reduction or deoxidization zone it becomes strong reduction alkaline. Oxygenic groundwater in the fluid is the activate and mig-ratory medium of uranium element, but the gaseous hydrocarbon like CH₄ as well as H₂, H₂S, CO from natural gas is the important sedimentary reducer of uranium mineral; the transformation of pH,Eh in fluid environment is the main reason for the formation of uranium metallization.     

地面中—β尺度强锋区激发的特大暴雨过程分析

受0012号台风（派比安）外围影响，2000年8月30日02时至31日08时，在江苏省东北部发生了一次具有局域性、突发性、高强度、超历史、灾情重等特征的特大暴雨，分析研究发现，在台风外围第二象限，江苏东北部地面存在中-β尺度的能量锋区，此能量锋区是构成产生、维持特大暴雨的中-β尺度的天气系统。利用锋生函数对此能量锋区的发生发展进行诊断，结果表明，锋生函数的变形项起了决定性作用，辐合项也有较明显的贡献，非绝热加热在锋生初期有作用，但对锋区的维持，其贡献并不明显，进一步用二维中尺度方程对锋区进行数值模拟，结果显示，在能量锋附近驱动产生了涡旋，在涡旋上升支，将高能区的暖湿空气向上输送而成云致雨，在涡旋下沉支，通过下沉气流使雨迅速下落，同时拖曳冷空气使地面降温，使得锋区维持和加强，致使雨强增幅，综合分析表明，中-β尺度能量锋区形成以后，通过锋区附近的中-β尺度的辐合线，中低压，中高压以及锋区附近驱动的扰动涡旋等中-β尺度的天气系统间的相互作用，导致了这次江苏省东北部高强度的特大暴雨。     

“中国地壳运动观测网络”区域网GPS联测数据的处理

介绍了“中国地壳运动观测网络”1999年区域网GPS联测数据的基本情况 ,并采用所给定的处理方案对此次联测数据进行了处理。计算结果表明 :点位坐标重复性在南北方向为 2 .0mm ,东西方向为 3.0mm ,高程方向为 5 .6mm ;基线重复性达到 1.76mm +1.78L× 10 -9mm ,基线分量重复性南北方向为 1.4 0mm +1.0 5L× 10 -9mm ,东西方向为 2 .14mm +1.5 6L× 10 -9mm ,高程方向为 4 .6 9mm +2 .18L× 10 -9mm     

地形引起的雷达辐射畸变及其校正

合成孔径雷达影像由于其侧视特点 ,存在着严重的地形引起的几何畸变及辐射畸变。辐射畸变不仅对 SAR辐射标定造成困难 ,而且严重影响了影像分类、土壤湿度信息提取、森林蓄积量信息提取等应用。本文将辐射畸变归结为面积效应和局部入射角效应 ,推导了散射面积归一化因子 ,以消除辐射畸变的面积效应。提出了一种以局部入射角的线性函数表达的后向散射模型 ,在此基础上 ,给出了消除局部入射角效应的校正函数。最后 ,以RADARSAT SAR影像进行地形辐射畸变校正的试验与分析     

瑞利散射激光雷达探测平流层和中间层低层大气温度

介绍了一台瑞利散射激光雷达,它能够探测22～60 km范围内大气温度的垂直分布;比较了两种反演温度的数据处理方法.该激光雷达分别与UARS/HALOE卫星和无线电探空仪观测结果进行了对比,均表现了较好的一致性.同时还模拟分析了平流层低层气溶胶对计算温度的影响.     

青藏高原加热与亚洲环流季节变化和夏季风爆发

利用逐日NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析了春夏过渡季节青减高原非绝热加热和大气环流季节变化以及亚洲季风爆发的关系.结果表明,过渡季节的早期(5月中旬以前)青藏高原总非绝热加热与感热加热的时间演变曲线趋势一致,感热加热在过渡季节早期的环流演变中有很重要的作用.青藏高原非绝热加热的时间演变与北半球环流的季节变化和亚洲夏季风爆发有很好的相关.在过渡季节里,青藏高原非绝热加热的变化引起了海-陆热力差异对比的变化,给亚洲夏季风的爆发建立了有利的背景环境,对亚洲夏季风爆发有明显的影响.结果还表明,用各区域纬向风垂直差异的时空分布能更准确地表示季节变化的区域差异.