特大地震对震源邻区的增(减)震作用的研究

通过研究中国大陆1910年以来8级以上特大地震和国外几组典型特大地震对震源邻近区域的影响,发现特大地震往往发生在断裂带上,一组或一次特大地震可能使发震断裂部分破裂,而未破裂断裂的构造应力可能增大,又成为大震的空段,该空段短时间内可能会发生大震(起到增震作用);反之,发震断裂完全破裂或没有大震空段,震源邻近区域构造应力可能减小,短时间可能不会发生大震(起到减震作用)。依据这一结果,可对特大地震发生后震源邻近区域的后续大震作短、中期预测。     

影响我国主要粮食作物产量的气象因子研究

通过收集前人主要粮食作物气象产量预报的研究成果，将所得到的资料按作物进行分类，并进行归一化处理，使用系统聚类分析方法，以预报方程中的影响因子为指标，分区找出各区主要粮食作物产量的主、次要影响因子和影响时期，为大范围作物产量预报提供了科学依据。     

地面中—β尺度强锋区激发的特大暴雨过程分析

受0012号台风（派比安）外围影响，2000年8月30日02时至31日08时，在江苏省东北部发生了一次具有局域性、突发性、高强度、超历史、灾情重等特征的特大暴雨，分析研究发现，在台风外围第二象限，江苏东北部地面存在中-β尺度的能量锋区，此能量锋区是构成产生、维持特大暴雨的中-β尺度的天气系统。利用锋生函数对此能量锋区的发生发展进行诊断，结果表明，锋生函数的变形项起了决定性作用，辐合项也有较明显的贡献，非绝热加热在锋生初期有作用，但对锋区的维持，其贡献并不明显，进一步用二维中尺度方程对锋区进行数值模拟，结果显示，在能量锋附近驱动产生了涡旋，在涡旋上升支，将高能区的暖湿空气向上输送而成云致雨，在涡旋下沉支，通过下沉气流使雨迅速下落，同时拖曳冷空气使地面降温，使得锋区维持和加强，致使雨强增幅，综合分析表明，中-β尺度能量锋区形成以后，通过锋区附近的中-β尺度的辐合线，中低压，中高压以及锋区附近驱动的扰动涡旋等中-β尺度的天气系统间的相互作用，导致了这次江苏省东北部高强度的特大暴雨。     

大气季节内振荡：其全球同步性及其与ENSO的关系

利用美国国家环境预报中心和大气研究中心的大气再分析资料，分析研究了大气季节内振荡的年际变化及其与ＥＮＳＯ的关系。揭示了全球不同纬度带之间存在着的大气季节内振荡年际变化的同步性，以及大气季节内振荡与海温和大气向外长波辐射之关系的复杂性。我们还发现大气季节内振荡与Ｎｉｎｏ３指数的关系存在年代际尺度的变化，即，这种关系有时强时弱的现象。     

Design of environmental decision support system and its application to water quality management

1 IntroductionEnvironmental decision support systems could be divided into two categories by their organizational form and system functions. One is regional environmental analytical system based on commercial GIS and assisted by environmental models, such as BASINS developed by the American NEPA using ARC/VIEW as its user platform and including QUAL2E and NPSM as its prediction tools. The other is environmental information and prediction system based on mathematical models, such as…     

Sand-dust storms in China: temporal-spatial distribution and tracks of source lands

1 IntroductionSand-dust storms include both sand storms and dust storms[1]. When the visibility in local areas is greater than or equal to 50 m but less than 200 m, they are called severe sand-dust storms. When extremely severe sand-dust storm, the most severest type of sand-dust storm, occurs, the local instantaneous maximum wind speed can be greater than 25 m/s and a local visibility be less than 50 m or even descend to 0 m[2].Sand-dust storm is a critical environmental problem and is also a…     

Tectonic Dynamic Metallization of Silver-GoldHydrothermal Fluids in Proterozoic GneissTerrene Shear Zones, Suichang, Zhejiang, China

-,The well-known Suichang silvengold field is located inZhejiang Province of SOutheast China. It is the largest silver-gold deposit associated with copper and zinc in the Cathaysianmetallogenic province.There are a series of silver-gold dePOsits in the shear zonesof Proterozoic gneiss terrene, Suichang region. The volcanicapparatus at Mesozoic has complicated rpineralization. Respectively, there are two pieces of understanding on the origin ofore-formigg nuid: (l ) metamorphic fluid (Lia…     

合成孔径雷达影象提取雪盖信息研究

在分析合成孔径雷达（ＳＡＲ）成象机理及雪盖参数散射特性的基础上，利用航天飞机承载的成象雷达（ＳＩＲ—Ｃ）获取的多波段、多极化ＳＡＲ数据，进行提取雪盖信息的实验。结果表明Ｃ波段ＨＨ、ＶＶ影象能很好地区别湿雪与非雪盖区，而区分干雪与岩石较困难；Ｌ波段ＨＨ、ＶＶ影象较容易将雪盖同其它物体区分开；Ｃ、Ｌ波段的交叉极化ＨＶ、ＶＨ区分干雪与岩石效果很好。故利用多波段、多极化ＳＡＲ进行雪盖制图是可行的。     

Inversion of Q value structure beneath the Tibet Plateau

A total of 11 earthquakes with 15 Rayleigh wave paths, recorded at 11 broadband digital PASSCAL seismometers installed in the Tibet Plateau by the Sino-U.S. joint research group, were used to determine the phase velocity and attenuation coefficient of surface waves in periods of 10–130 s. The average shear wave velocity and quality factor {ie271-1} structures in the crust and upper mantle were obtained in this region. The result shows the average {ie271-2} is low and there exists a high attenuation ({ie271-3}=93–141) layer in the crust. The depth range of the low {ie271-4} value layer (16–42 km) is consistent with the range of low velocity layer (21–51 km) in the crust. Below 63 km in the lower crust, {ie271-5} decreases with depth from 114 to 34 at depth of 180 km. The low shear wave velocity and low value of {ie271-6} at the same depth range in the crust indicate that the rocks in the range is probably melted or partially melted. According to the shear wave velocity structure, the average thickness of the crust is about 71 km and a clear velocity discontiniuty appears at the depth of 51 km. The low-velocity zone (4. 26 km/s) at depth of 96–180 km may be corresponding to the asthenosphere. Contribution No. 96A0047, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Numerical simulation of tropical cyclones by an axisymmetric nonhydrostatic model

Summary As an approach to study the mesoscale processes within a typhoon, an axisymmetric nonhydrostatic numerical model is developed without the use of convective parameterization. Many simulated characteristics are consistent with radar and aircraft observations, such as the maximum of vertical and tangential wind, the inflow concentrated near the surface, the outward slope of the eyewall updraft, etc. The model duplicates not only the outward propagation of mesoscale convective systems, but also the inward movement of convective rings, the rate of which coincides with the observation. Besides, the model gives good simulations of the life cycle of convective rings, and indicates that the convective rings far from the eyewall play important roles in the fluctuation of typhoon intensity. Numerical results also exhibit the existence of coupling between outer and inner core structure.Analyses of the simulations show that convective momentum transport generates local maximum absolute angular momentum in the middle and upper troposphere. The momentum anomaly results in symmetric instability, which provides the environment to form convective rings. While the momentum anomaly moves outward with the outflow in the middle and upper troposphere, it initiates a series of convective rings with aid of other direct factors, which explains the outward propagation of convective systems.The simulations exhibit the life cycle of a typical convective ring in terms of three stages, or the developing, mature and dissipating stage. Analysis shows that the symmetric instability and the convective instability promote each other, and their cooperation makes the life of convective rings longer.With 8 Figures