Streamflow simulation and skewness preservation based on the bootstrapped stochastic models

The stochastic model has been widely used for the simulation study. However, there was a difficulty in the reproduction of the skewness of observed series and so the stochastic model for the skewness preservation was appeared. While the skewness in the residuals of the stochastic model has been considered for the skewness preservation this study uses a random resampling technique of residuals from the stochastic models for the simulation study and for the investigation of the skewness coefficient. The main advantage of this resampling scheme, called the bootstrap method is that it does not rely on the assumption of population distribution and this study uses the combined model of the stochastic and bootstrapped models. The stochastic and bootstrapped stochastic (or combined) models are used for the investigations of skewness preservation and of the reproduction of probability density function between the simulated series. The models are applied to the annual and monthly streamflows of Yongdam site in Korea and Yakima river, Washington, USA for the streamflow simulation study then the statistics and probability density functions for the observed and simulated streamflows are compared. As the results the bootstrapped stochastic model reproduces the skewness and probability density function much better than the stochastic model. This evidences suggest that the bootstrapped stochastic model might be more appropriate than the stochastic model for the preservation of skewness and for simulation purposes of the series.     

硇洲岛和东海岛海区的浮游硅藻类

1980～1984年对湛江市硇洲岛和东海岛附近海域的浮游硅藻类进行了初步的调查研究。通过定量和定性分析,鉴定结果共有119种,隶属于17科43属。其中优势种共10种。对该海域浮游硅藻生物量周年变化及优势种生物量的周年变化初步的调查结果表明:一年中生物量出现两个高峰期。     

MJO prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the primary mode of tropical intraseasonal climate variability and has significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts. Advancing prediction of the MJO using state of the art observational data and modeling systems is thus a necessary goal for improving global intraseasonal climate prediction. MJO prediction is assessed in the NOAA Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) based on its hindcasts initialized daily for 1999–2010. The analysis focuses on MJO indices taken as the principal components of the two leading EOFs of combined 15°S–15°N average of 200-hPa zonal wind, 850-hPa zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The CFSv2 has useful MJO prediction skill out to 20 days at which the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) drops to 0.5 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) increases to the level of the prediction with climatology. The prediction skill also shows a seasonal variation with the lowest ACC during the boreal summer and highest ACC during boreal winter. The prediction skills are evaluated according to the target as well as initial phases. Within the lead time of 10 days the ACC is generally greater than 0.8 and RMSE is less than 1 for all initial and target phases. At longer lead time, the model shows lower skills for predicting enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and from the eastern Pacific to western Indian Ocean. The prediction skills are relatively higher for target phases when enhanced convection is in the central Indian Ocean and the central Pacific. While the MJO prediction skills are improved in CFSv2 compared to its previous version, systematic errors still exist in the CFSv2 in the maintenance and propagation of the MJO including (1) the MJO amplitude in the CFSv2 drops dramatically at the beginning of the prediction and remains weaker than the observed during the target period and (2) the propagation in the CFSv2 is too slow. Reducing these errors will be necessary for further improvement of the MJO prediction.     

Incorporating stakeholders’ knowledge into assessing vulnerability to climatic hazards: application to the river basin management in Taiwan

There is a growing research interest on the transdisciplinary measurement of vulnerability to climatic hazards from the perspective of integrated river basin management. However, the incorporation of stakeholders’ participation, local knowledge and locally spatial characteristics into the process of such vulnerability assessment is one of the challenges faced by decision-makers, especially in developing countries. This article proposes a novel methodology for assessing and communicating vulnerability to policymaking at the river basin level through a case study of Tachia River basin in Taiwan. The authors used a multicriteria decision analysis to develop an integrated vulnerability index applied to a participatory geographic information system (GIS) to map vulnerability to climatic hazards. Using a GIS-based spatial statistics technique and multivariate analysis, we test the degree to which vulnerabilities are spatially autocorrelated throughout the river basin, explain why clustering of vulnerable areas occurs in specific locations, and why some regions are particularly vulnerable. Results demonstrate that vulnerable areas are spatially correlated across the river basin. Moreover, exposure, biophysical sensitivity, land uses and adaptive capacity are key factors contributing to the formation of localized ‘hot spots’ of similarly and particularly vulnerable areas. Finally, we discuss how the findings provide direction for more effective approaches to river basin planning and management.     

Identification of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Song Hong (Red) and Song Da (Black) river basins of Vietnam

The concentration and distribution of U were measured in zircon samples separated from the streambed sediments collected at different sites along the rivers of northern Vietnam using semiconductor alpha spectrometry and alpha- and fission-track autoradiography. Based on the absolute U content and distribution, we distinguished two groups of zircon grains of different origin. Group 1 zircons have relatively low and uniform U contents ranging from 280 to 440 μg/g. Group 2 zircons are characterized by heterogeneous U distribution and U contents ranging from 490 to 2040μg/g. The determination of absolute alpha activity values and alpha spectrometric characteristics for a number of group 2 zircon grains indicated the presence of relatively short-lived alpha-emitters. These radionuclides are probably ²¹⁰Po, ²³²U, ²³⁶Pu, ²⁴¹Am, and ²⁴³Am, and all of them can originate exclusively from anthropogenic sources. A comparison of the observed alpha activity values for group 2 zircons with those of group 1 zircons and zircons separated from the suspended colloids in river water samples provided conclusive evidence for traces of anthropogenic radioactive contamination in the Lao Cai, Yen Bai, Tuyen Quang, Thac Ba, Viet Tri, and Hanoi streams flowing in the Song Hong (Red) and Song Da (Black) river basins of northern Vietnam and sourced in the southern regions of the neighboring state.     

Evaluation of an anisotropic elastoplastic–viscoplastic bounding surface model for clays

An anisotropic time-dependent bounding surface model for clays is developed by generalizing a previous time-independent model that adopts a flexible bounding surface. It is based on the framework for coupled elastoplasticity–viscoplasticity for clays and Perzyna’s overstress theory. Three viscoplastic parameters were introduced and explained in detail. The model was validated against undrained creep tests for both isotropically and anisotropically consolidated clays, undrained and drained stress relaxation tests on some undisturbed clays, and undrained triaxial tests with varying strain rates on natural Hong Kong marine deposit clay. The general agreement between the model simulations and test results was satisfactory. The varying effects of lower-level parameters were discussed on the undrained multistage stress relaxation response for normally consolidated soils which had been ignored in literature. The flexibility of the model in capturing the shear strengths, which is the unique feature of the current model, was shown in the simulations of time-dependent triaxial tests on Taipei silty clay. All the simulations show that the proposed model is a relatively practical model considering both anisotropy and time dependency of clays.