安徽省人口年龄结构特征及其社会经济影响研究

根据人口普查和抽样调查的数据资料,采用对比分析、聚类分析等研究方法分析了1953~2015年安徽省人口年龄结构时间特征、空间特征。从时间上看,安徽省人口年龄结构不断演变,少儿人口数量从不断增加转变为不断减少,劳动适龄人口比重比较稳定,人口老龄化程度不断加深,总抚养系数和少年儿童抚养系数大幅度下降,老年抚养系数上升;从空间上看,人口年龄结构存在较大地区差异。安徽省人口年龄结构对社会经济发展的影响主要表现为：① 人口老年化导致劳动生产率和经济增长速度的减缓,家庭规模小型化,并对社会养老保障和医疗卫生的挑战;② 少儿人口的不断减少影响教育资源的配置;③ 人口年龄结构的区域差异进一步加剧了安徽区域发展的不平衡性。为了尽可能地减缓人口年龄结构演变对安徽省社会经济发展的不利影响,建议采取如下措施：一是充分利用“人口红利”机遇期,加快经济发展,不断促进社会进步;二是要加强引导,因地施策;三是完善社会保障制度,努力扩大社会保障制度的覆盖面,力争全覆盖,尽量减小城乡差距;四是大力发展养老产业,探索建立满足居家养老、社区养老、机构养老等多种方式需求的政府主导、政策扶持、社会参与、市场运作的社会化养老服务体系。     

重庆万盛煤矸石山自燃爆炸型滑坡碎屑流成因探讨

2 0 0 4 - 0 5 - 0 5重庆万盛胡家沟煤矸石山发生滑坡碎屑流灾害。灾害发生时,伴随巨大的响声和刺鼻气味,约2 0×10 4m3 煤矸石碎屑以极高初始速度崩滑而下,滑体横扫运动途中一切障碍,垂直坡降32 0m ,水平运动距离6 0 0m。造成重大人员和财产损失。通过实地考察和实验研究,作者认为煤矸石山中硫铁矿和碳氧化物升温,煤矸石山自燃、内部热量大量积聚所导致的煤矸石山的爆炸,是使大量矸石脱离矸石山形成此次煤矸石高速滑坡碎屑流灾害的主要原因     

柴北缘前寒武纪岩体（地层）变质年龄及其对早古生代造山作用的指示

柴北缘前寒武纪岩体（地层）分布广泛。为确定柴北缘地区前寒武纪岩体（地层）受早古生代碰撞造山作用的影响,采用LA—ICP—MS技术．对大柴旦地区前寒武纪黑云斜长片麻岩、斜长角闪岩及石榴子石斜长角闪岩中的锆石进行了u—Pb同位素定年。黑云斜长片麻岩获得479-472Ma的变质年龄,斜长角闪岩获得440Ma和470Ma2个变质年龄,石榴子石斜长角闪岩获得418．8Ma±3．0Ma的变质年龄。初步确定,柴北缘早古生代造山作用对前寒武纪岩体构成了3次强度不等的变质作用叠加,分别为大洋俯7中末期阶段（495-467Ma）岛弧花岗岩弱热烘烤变质作用、大陆碰撞造山阶段（467-423Ma）区域变质作用、S型花岗岩热动力变质作用和大陆后碰撞造山阶段（423-371Ma）I型花岗岩强烈接触热变质作用。     

研究底板突水的结构力学方法

介绍了研究底板突水的结构力学方法，并用极限弯矩的理论计算得出确定底板隔水层有效厚度之计算公式。     

论

针对     

缝洞型碳酸盐岩气藏多类型储集层孔隙结构特征及储渗能力——以四川盆地高石梯-磨溪地区灯四段为例

为全面表征缝洞型碳酸盐岩气藏多类型储集层的孔隙结构特征及储渗能力,借助多种测试技术对四川盆地高石梯-磨溪地区灯四段储集层样品进行分析与研究。首先利用铸体薄片和扫描电镜技术定性刻画了储集层的岩性、物性、储集空间和喉道特征,然后根据高压压汞得到的毛管压力曲线对储集层进行分类,最后基于多尺度CT扫描定量表征了3类样品的二维、三维孔隙结构特征。结果表明：研究区储集空间既有受组构控制的粒间溶孔、粒内溶孔和晶间溶孔等,又有不受组构控制的溶洞、溶缝和构造缝;喉道以缩颈、片状和管束状为主;根据毛管压力曲线特征,储集层可划分为缝洞型、孔洞型和孔隙型;缝洞型大孔隙与溶洞发育,分布均匀且连通性好,喉道粗大且数量较多,微裂缝与溶洞串接呈串珠状分布,沟通了孤立的储集空间,具有最好的储渗能力;孔洞型多尺度孔隙与溶洞发育,储集能力强,喉道粗大但数量较少,连通性较差,各储集空间无法有效沟通,渗流能力受限;孔隙型细小孔隙发育且分布不均,大部分区域被岩石骨架占据,喉道数量少且连通性极差,储渗能力弱。     

Occurrence of persistent organic pollutants in marine fish from the Natuna Island,South China Sea

Five marine fish species were collected from the Natuna Island, South China Sea to investigate the occurrence of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs). Concentrations of PBDEs, PCBs, and DDTs in marine fish ranged from 2.85 to 7.82, 14.3 to 48.1, and 7.99 to 40.3 ng/g lipid weight, respectively. Higher concentrations of PBDEs, PCBs, and DDTs were observed in Snakefish (Trachinocephalus myops), which might be attributed to their different feeding and living habits. PCBs were the predominant POPs in all marine fish, followed by DDTs and PBDEs. BDE 47 and PCB 153 were the predominant congener of PBDEs and PCBs, respectively. Compositional distribution of DDTs indicated the possible presence of fresh input sources around the Natuna Island. The ratios of o,p′-DDT/p,p′-DDT being less than 1 in fish samples suggested that DDT contributions from dicofol seemed considerably low. New input sources of DDT in South China Sea are worth further research.     

Observation of the seasonal evolution of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in 1996–1998

We use the hydrographic data obtained during the joint survey of the Yellow Sea by the First Institute of Oceanography, China and the Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Korea, to quantify the spatial structures and temporal evolution of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM). It is indicated that the southern YSCWM is a water mass that develops in summer and decays in fall. In winter, due to the intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC), the central area (approximately between 34°N and 35°N, 122°E and 124°E) of the Yellow Sea is mainly occupied by relatively high temperature water (T>10 °C). By contrast, from early summer to fall, under the seasonal thermocline, the central area of Yellow Sea is occupied by cold water (T<10 °C). In summer, the southern YSCWM has two cold cores. One is formed locally southeast of Shandong Peninsula, and the other one has a tongue-like feature occupying the area approximately between 34°N and 37°N, 123°E and 126°E. The bottom layer temperature anomalies from February to July in the cold tongue region, along with the trajectories of the bottom floaters, suggest that the cold water mass in the northeast region has a displacement from the north to the central area of the Yellow Sea during the summer.     

基于层次分析法的大连区域雷灾易损性评价

根据大连地区近6年雷电灾害资料,40年雷暴资料,以大连地理、气候环境为背景,通过计算指标权重,采用层次分析法对大连区域雷灾易损性进行评价,并通过一致性检验。结果显示,金州新区属于极高风险区域,瓦房店属于高风险区域,大连、普兰店、庄河属于低风险区域,旅顺属于极低风险区域。结果表明雷灾区域易损性分析不仅取决于样本区域的自然雷暴日,还与样本区域的经济发展情况、人口密度、历史灾害等多方面因素有关,各指标影响权重也并非相同。采用层次分析法进行区域雷灾评价研究,能够有效减少人为因素,为防雷减灾提供了依据。