An experimental work on the transplant of high resolution limited area model(HIRLAM) isfirstly introduced into China.For the implementation,first of all is to adjust a new geographicalcoordination and to remove the instability caused by the Tibetan Plateau,the roof of the world.Then,we have applied this model to simulate a flood-making torrential rain process which occurredin the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley in July 1991.That revealed the formation,development andmovement of a mesoseale heavy rain system which had made a disastrous flood event in the middleand lower reaches of Changjiang River Valley.The result encourages us to use the HIRLAM for the researches on the Meiyu belt,the salientfeature of precipitation of East Asia,and the numerical prediction of heavy rains in China. 相似文献
Abrupt climate change has an important impact on sustainable economic and social development, as well as ecosystem. However, it is very difficult to predict abrupt climate changes because the climate system is a complex and nonlinear system. In the present paper, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is proposed as a new early warning signal for an abrupt climate change. The performance of NLLE as an early warning signal is first verified by those simulated abrupt changes based on four folding models. That is, NLLE in all experiments showed an almost monotonous increasing trend as a dynamic system approached its tipping point. For a well-studied abrupt climate change in North Pacific in 1976/1977, it is also found that NLLE shows an almost monotonous increasing trend since 1970 which give up to 6 years warning before the abrupt climate change. The limit of the predictability for a nonlinear dynamic system can be quantitatively estimated by NLLE, and lager NLLE of the system means less predictability. Therefore, the decreasing predictability may be an effective precursor indicator for abrupt climate change.
The remobilization of iron, manganese, cobalt, cadmium, copper and zinc in the pore water of estuarine sediment cores at Yingkou was assessed using diffusive equilibrium in thin films and diffusive gradients in thin films techniques. A relatively anoxic system (+33.7 to ?224.1 mV) in the sediment cores might cause the reductive release of iron, manganese and cobalt into pore water from the estuarine sediment. High-average concentrations of iron (47.85 μg ml?1) and manganese (3.81 μg ml?1) were observed using diffusive equilibrium in thin films on the sediment core, but the concentration of cobalt (18.02 ng ml?1) was relatively low. A strong correlation between iron and cobalt was observed based on the vertical profiles of the metals. Manganese and iron were more readily released from the solid phase to the solution. The peak cobalt, copper and zinc concentrations were observed in the upper layer (2–4 cm) measured using diffusive gradients in thin films. However, the peak iron, manganese and cobalt concentrations were located in the deeper layer (≥7 cm). In addition, the concentration profiles measured using diffusive gradients in thin films of cobalt, copper and zinc were independent of the iron, manganese and cobalt distribution with respect to depth. 相似文献
Accurate rainfall distribution is difficult to acquire based on limited meteorological stations, especially in remote areas like high mountains and deserts. The Hexi Corridor and its adjacent regions (including the Qilian Mountains and the Alxa Plateau) are typical districts where there are only 30 available rain gauges. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data provide a possible solution. After precision analysis of monthly 0.25 degree resolution TRMM 3B43 data from 1998 to 2012, we find that the correlations between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge precipitation are significant overall and in each station around the Hexi Corridor; however, the biases of annual precipitation differ in different stations and are seriously overestimated in most of the sites. Thus, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method was used to rectify TRMM data based on the difference between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge observations. The results show that rectified TRMM data present more details than rain gauges in remote areas where there are few stations, alt- hough they show high coherence of distribution. Precipitation decreases from southeast to northwest on an annual and seasonal scale. There are three rainfall centers (〉500 mm) including Menyuan, Qilian and Toson Lake, and two low rain- fall centers (〈50 mm) including Dunhuang and Ejin Banner. Meanwhile, precipitation in most of the study area presents an increasing trend; especially in northern Qilian Mountains (〉5 mm/a), Badain Jaran Desert (〉2 mm/a), Toson Lake (〉20 mm/a) and Qingtu Lake (〉20 ram/a) which shows a significant increasing trend, while precipitation in Hala Lake (〈-2 mm/a) and Tengger Desert (〈-3 mm/a) demonstrates a decreasing trend. 相似文献