Lead isotopic exploration intersecting mineralization zones for the depth forecast of concealed deposits

Pb isotopic geochemical exploration intersecting mineralization zones have been well developed in the light of the eigenvaluesV ₁ andV ₂ of three-dimensional topological projection of Pb isotopic data. The newly developed theoretical model forecasting concealed deposits has been verified in the evaluation of Longbohe copper deposit in Jinping, Yunnan Province, which is consistent with the observed law of depth variation for Pb isotopes. The forecasting results show that the depth of buried major orebody should occur at about -50 to -400 m and deeper within the eastern and western mineralization belts of Longbohe copper deposit.     

一次江淮气旋暴雪的积雪特征及气象影响因子分析

利用自动站、人工加密观测及常规观测资料,通过对2017年2月21—22日一次江淮气旋暴雪过程积雪特征的分析,揭示了近地面气象要素对积雪深度的复杂影响。结果表明:(1)江淮气旋系统特有的空间结构导致山东南、北地区的降雪量和积雪深度不均衡分布。(2)积雪深度具有时效性,在降雪结束时达到峰值,因温度的变化导致峰值不一定维持到次日08时。(3)积雪深度是近地面多气象要素共同作用的结果,降水相态、降雪量、降雪强度、气温、地温和风速均有影响。主要表现为:雨夹雪在转为纯雪之前可产生不超过1 cm的积雪,如果不转雪则不会产生有量积雪;各地降雪含水比差异较大,全省平均为0. 5 cm·mm~(-1),低于全国平均值;在降雪不融化的情况下,降雪量、降雪强度越大则积雪越深,降雪强度大是气温和地温都高于0℃时产生积雪的必要条件;地温和气温越低对积雪形成越有利,积雪开始产生时的地温最高阈值多在0℃左右,地温先突降后缓升是积雪产生前后的共性特征,积雪产生后1～2 h内地温略有上升并逐渐趋于稳定;积雪产生时气温一般低于0℃,气温高于0℃时大部分降雪融化;有利于产生积雪的平均风力多不超过2级,极大风则在3～4级以下。     

黄河流域气候水分盈亏时空格局分析

以中国气象局整编的1961~2001 年的气象资料为数据基础,采用联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)1998 年推荐使用的Penmanmonteith模型,并以GIS技术为手段进行黄河流域气候水分盈亏的时空分布格局分析。结果表明：黄河流域干旱缺水是一种普遍现象,气候水分盈亏量在空间上总的变化规律表现为自南向北、自东向西气候水分亏缺量呈逐渐增大趋势,大部分地区全年气候水分亏缺量介于200~600 mm之间;就季节分布而言,水分亏缺的主要时期在春季和初夏,亏缺量一般在180~300 mm之间;就典型站点气候水分盈亏量逐月变化而言,存在着区域差异。研究结果和结论对区域充分发挥水分利用效率、发展高效节水农业具有重要意义。     

基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟

文章以江西省曹水作为山洪灾害淹没模拟的研究区域,通过嵌入河道栅格修订数字地形,采用FloodArea水文淹没模型对数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,DEM)对修订前后的同一降水过程进行模拟,结合实地考察流域内淹没痕迹和水文站水位资料对比分析两者的模拟结果,并利用确定性系数和Nash—Sutcliffe效率系数对2000—2010年间出现的强降水过程的模拟结果进行验证。结论表明:基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟能较好地反映曹水流域内的因降水导致的山洪推进路线、淹没范围及淹没水深,该方法可作为推算曹水流域的山洪灾害致灾临界面雨量的基础。     

Evaluate dry deposition velocity of the nitrogen oxides using Noah-MP physics ensemble simulations for the Dinghushan Forest,Southern China

There has been a rapid growth of reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition over the world in the past decades. The Pearl River Delta region is one of the areas with high loading of nitrogen deposition. But there are still large uncertainties in the study of dry deposition because of its complex processes of physical chemistry and vegetation physiology. At present, the forest canopy parameterization scheme used in WRF-Chem model is a single-layer “big leaf” model, and the simulation of radiation transmission and energy balance in forest canopy is not detailed and accurate. Noah-MP land surface model (Noah-MP) is based on the Noah land surface model (Noah LSM) and has multiple parametric options to simulate the energy, momentum, and material interactions of the vegetation-soil-atmosphere system. Therefore, to investigate the improvement of the simulation results of WRF-Chem on the nitrogen deposition in forest area after coupled with Noah-MP model and to reduce the influence of meteorological simulation biases on the dry deposition velocity simulation, a dry deposition single-point model coupled by Noah- MP and the WRF-Chem dry deposition module (WDDM) was used to simulate the deposition velocity (V_d). The model was driven by the micro-meteorological observation of the Dinghushan Forest Ecosystem Location Station. And a series of numerical experiments were carried out to identify the key processes influencing the calculation of dry deposition velocity, and the effects of various surface physical and plant physiological processes on dry deposition were discussed. The model captured the observed V_d well, but still underestimated the V_d. The self-defect of Wesely scheme applied by WDDM, and the inaccuracy of built-in parameters in WDDM and input data for Noah-MP (e.g. LAI) were the key factors that cause the underestimation of V_d. Therefore, future work is needed to improve model mechanisms and parameterization.     

A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture

This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO₂ are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.     

Long-term simulations of the sulfur concentrations over the China, Japan and Korea: A model comparison study

Three comprehensive acid deposition models were used to simulate the sulfur concentrations over northeast Asia over the period covering entire year of 2002, and discussed the aggregated uncertainties and discrepancies of the three models. The participating models are from the countries participating in the project of Longrange Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP): China, Japan and Korea. The Eulerian Model-3/CMAQ (by China), Regional Air Quality Model (RAQM, by Japan), and Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM, by Korea) were employed by each country with common emissions data established by the administrative agencies of China, Japan and Korea. The episodic simulation results between 1 to 15, March 2002 are also presented, during which aircraft measurements were carried out over the Yellow sea. The episodic results show both a wide short-term variability in simulations against measurements, and maximum concentration differences of 3～5 times among the three models, requiring that further attention before confidence among the three models can be claimed for short-term simulations. However, the year-long cumulative simulations showed almost the same general features, with lower aggregated uncertainties between the three models, produced by the long term integration over northeast Asia.     

A complementary depiction of the interannual variation of atmospheric circulation associated with ENSO events: Research note

Abstract

A simple diagnostic scheme, which combines a low‐pass temporal filter (with an 18‐month cutoff time) with a regular empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, is used to delineate the synchronous evolution of El Nino‐Southern Oscillation‐related (ENSO‐related) modes in various variables of the ocean‐atmosphere system. Based on the causal relation chain of diabatic heating, divergent circulation and rotational flow, the diagnostic scheme extracts ENSO modes from the following data sources: the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the past 14‐years (1979–1992) of data generated by the Global Data Assimilation System of the National Meteorological Center, and a 10‐year (1979–1988) general circulation model climate simulation made at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The analysis reveals the following: (a) the eigencoefficient time series of the first eigenmodes of selected filtered variables, which explain about 40–50% of their total variance, synchronize with the filtered SST averaged over Area NINO‐3; (b) the spatial structures of the first eigenmodes resemble the ensemble departures associated with ENSO events of these variables from their long term means; and (c) the results show that the proposed scheme can be easily applied to isolate and illustrate the time evolution of ENSO modes which exist in the long term observational database as well as in climate simulations.