Application of back-propagation networks in debris flow prediction

Debris flows have caused serious loss of human lives and a lot of damage to properties in Taiwan over the past decades. Moreover, debris flows have brought massive mud causing water pollution in reservoirs and resulted in water shortage for daily life locally and affected agricultural irrigation and industrial usages seriously. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratio of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for occurrence predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 178 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 93.82% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems.     

Geomorphic response to an active transpressive regime: a case study along the Chaman strike‐slip fault,western Pakistan

The Chaman left‐lateral strike‐slip fault bounds the rigid Indian plate boundary at the western end of the Himalayan‐Tibetan orogen and is marked by contrasting topographic relief. Deformed landforms along the fault provide an excellent record for understanding this actively evolving intra‐continental strike‐slip fault. The geomorphic response of an active transpessional stretch of the Chaman fault was studied using digital elevation model (DEM) data integrated with Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Visible and Near Infrared/Short Wave Infrared (VNIR/SWIR) and images from GeoEye‐1. Geologic and geomorphic mapping helped in reconstructing the Late Quaternary landscape history of this transpessional strand of the Chaman strike‐slip fault and the associated Spinatizha thrust fault in western Pakistan. Topographic analysis of a part of the transpression (the thrust bounded Roghani ridge) revealed northward growth of the Spinatizha fault with the presence of three water gaps and two corresponding wind gaps. Geomorphic indices including stream length‐gradient index, mountain front sinuosity, valley floor width to valley height ratios, and entrenchment of recent alluvial fan deposits were used to define the lateral growth and direction of propagation of the Spinatizha fault. Left‐lateral displacement along Chaman fault and uplift along the Spinatizha fault was defined using topographic analysis of the Roghani ridge and geomorphic mapping of an impressive alluvial fan, the Bostankaul fan. The landforms and structures record slip partitioning along the Indian plate boundary, and account for the convergence resulting from the difference in the Chaman fault azimuth and orientation of the velocity vector of the Indian plate. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Segmentation and kinematics of the North America‐Caribbean plate boundary offshore Hispaniola

We explored the submarine portions of the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault zone (EPGFZ) and the Septentrional–Oriente Fault zone (SOFZ) along the Northern Caribbean plate boundary using high‐resolution multibeam echo‐sounding and shallow seismic reflection. The bathymetric data shed light on poorly documented or previously unknown submarine fault zones running over 200 km between Haiti and Jamaica (EPGFZ) and 300 km between the Dominican Republic and Cuba (SOFZ). The primary plate‐boundary structures are a series of strike‐slip fault segments associated with pressure ridges, restraining bends, step overs and dogleg offsets indicating very active tectonics. Several distinct segments 50–100 km long cut across pre‐existing structures inherited from former tectonic regimes or bypass recent morphologies formed under the current strike‐slip regime. Along the most recent trace of the SOFZ, we measured a strike‐slip offset of 16.5 km, which indicates steady activity for the past ~1.8 Ma if its current GPS‐derived motion of 9.8 ± 2 mm a^?1 has remained stable during the entire Quaternary.     

关于氡测量标定装置(氡室)和测量单位的统一

本文介绍了作者研制的8505—I型氡室,该氡室可用于准确和快速标定多种测氡装置。作者提出了相应的标定方法,并测定了野外常用的10种氡探测器的标定系数。根据法定计量单位选用了贝克(Bq)和贝克/升(Bq/L)。相应作为各种氡测量的[放射性]活度单位和氡浓度单位。     

Molecular fossil and paleovegetation records of paleosol S4 and adjacent loess layers in the Luochuan loess section, NW China

Using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) technique, a series of biomarkers were identi- fied, including n-alkanes, n-alkane-2-ones, isoprenoid etc. from the loess-paleosol samples collected from the S4 and adjacent L5, L4 of the Luochuan loess section, Northwestern China. Based on these data, especially n-alkanes and high-resolution magnetic susceptibility and grain size data, the pa- leoenvironment and paleovegetation history during S4 was reconstructed. The CPI (Carbon Predomi- nance Index) and correlation between n-alkanes and magnetic susceptibility and grain size data dem- onstrated that the molecular fossils in paleosol and loess layers can reflect the vegetation condition during the loess-paleosol formation, if the allochthonous organic inputs could be excluded reasonably. The ACL (average chain length) index is correlated well with paleomagnetic susceptibility and grain size variations, displaying their good synchrony with warm and humid climate. However, it relatively lagged behind the paleomagnetic susceptibility and the grain size variations when the climate began to deteriorate. During the formation period of paleosol, the n-alkanes was dominated by C31 homologue, indicating that the primary organic input originated from herbs. Our study also demonstrated that the herbs were more flourish than wood plants in Loess Plateau, especially in the Luochuan area during the warm and humid phase, and there was no typical forest vegetation developed in the studied period.     

Evidence of ameliorated Middle Weichselian climate and sub‐arctic environment in the western Baltic region: coring lake sediments at Klintholm,Møn,Denmark

Coring through glaciotectonically stacked Quaternary sediments situated below sea level on the island of Møn, Denmark, recovered a succession of interstadial sediments of Middle Weichselian age. Plant and animal remains including insects found in laminated sand and mud indicate deposition in a lake surrounded by dwarf shrubs, herbs, mosses and rare trees. The insect fauna indicates a mean July temperature of 8–12 °C, suggesting an arctic to sub‐arctic environment, while winter temperatures around ?8 to ?22 °C suggest periglacial conditions with permafrost. Luminescence dating of sediment samples gave ages from 48–29 ka, and radiocarbon dating indicates deposition of plant fragments between 45 and 36 ka BP. The fossil assemblage from Møn shows close resemblance to those from other sites with similar ages found in the vicinity of the western Baltic Basin.     

Book reviews

Climate change in contrasting river basins: adaptation strategies for water, food and environment. Edited by J Aerts and P Droogers. Published in 2004 by CABI Publishing, 288 p., hardcover. ISBN: 0–85199–835–6. Price: US$100 (orders: services@dadirect.com.au).

Australian water bugs. Their biology and identification (Hemiptera‐Heteroptera, Gerromorpha &; Nepomorpha). By Nils M Andersen? and Tom A Weir. Published in 2004 by CSIRO Publishing/Apollo Books, P.O. Box 1139, Collingwood, VIC 3066, Australia. 344 p., hardcover. ISBN: 0–643–090517. Price: AU$135.00 (orders: publishing.sales@csiro.au).

The Lakes Handbook. Volume I: Limnology and Limnetic Ecology. Volume II: Lake restoration and rehabilitation. Edited by Patrick O'Sullivan and Colin Reynolds. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 109 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, United Kingdom (http//www.blackwellpublishing.com). Volume I (published in 2003) 712 p., hardcover. ISBN: 0632047976. Price: £125. Volume II (published in 2004) 568 p., hardcover. ISBN: 063204795X. Price: £125.     

Mean flow and variability in the southwestern East Sea

The Ulleung Basin is one of three deep basins that are contained within the East/Japan Sea. Current meter moorings have been maintained in this basin beginning in 1996. The data from these moorings are used to investigate the mean circulation pattern, variability of deep flows, and volume transports of major water masses in the Ulleung Basin with supporting hydrographic data and help from a high-resolution numerical model. The bottom water within the Ulleung Basin, which must enter through a constricted passage from the north, is found to circulate cyclonically—a pattern that seems prevalent throughout the East Sea. A strong current of about 6 cms⁻¹ on average flows southward over the continental slope off the Korean coast underlying the northward East Korean Warm Current as part of the mean abyssal cyclonic circulation. Volume transports of the northward East Korean Warm Current, and southward flowing East Sea Intermediate Water and East Sea Proper Water are estimated to be 1.4 Sv (1 Sv=10⁻⁶ m³ s⁻¹), 0.8 Sv, and 3.0–4.0 Sv, respectively. Deep flow variability involves a wide range of time scales with no apparent seasonal variations, whereas the deep currents in the northern East Sea are known to be strongly seasonal.     

三塘湖盆地低熟油的发现及其地球化学特征

三塘湖盆地目前所发现的原油的C₂₉甾烷 20S/(20S +20R)值大部分小于 0.42,属于低 (未 )熟油的范畴。与国内外报道的低熟油相比,三塘湖盆地物性特征也具有高密度、高粘度及高含蜡量等特征,但其物性偏好。经油源分析,这些低熟油主要来源于上二叠统芦草沟组。该组烃源岩演化程度较低,有机质丰度较高,属较好生油岩。通过有机显微组分分析,发现芦草沟组烃源岩以富含腐泥无定形富氢显微组分而有别于三塘湖盆地其它低熟源岩。经热解分析,腐泥无定形是芦草沟组烃源岩主要生烃贡献者,并且其主生烃期Ro 在 0.35 %～ 0.6 %之间。因此,腐泥无定形低熟生烃是三塘湖盆地低熟油的主要生烃机制。另外,在三塘湖盆地原油以及芦草沟组源岩中都检测到 17α(H) 2 5 降霍烷系列化合物,说明三塘湖盆地的低熟油可能与陆源有机质细菌降解改造作用有关。