Housing strategies in low income urban communities in Accra,Ghana

As the rent-free compound housing system in Ghana gradually became unpopular, there was the need for state intervention in housing provision. Housing became an important part of the country’s developmental policies through state interventions prior to the late 1970s. The economic crises in 1979 forced the country to opt for Structural Adjustment Programme, compelling the state to relax on its efforts to provide housing for the public. The paper uses the mode of economic integration framework to discuss the various housing forms in the country. It argues, housing provision led by the private sector creates remarked differences between housing for the higher and lower income groups. The study uses two low income communities in Accra to explain different ways by which the urban poor in Ghana accommodate themselves amidst the country’s housing problems. The study concludes there is an alternative to the housing crises in the country which could be found in the public-private investments in the rental form of the compound housing system.     

A GIS framework for evaluating the implications of urban road network failure due to earthquakes: Bucharest (Romania) case study

Through this paper we propose and test a GIS framework that addresses the issue of seismic risk due to urban road network failure. The approach relies on full GIS integration, on Monte Carlo simulations for generating potentially disrupted network configurations, considering also the damage probability due to direct earthquake implications, and on traffic considerations (both in typical and post-earthquake situations). The damage probability can be obtained using fragility functions for critical structures like bridges and tunnels or by determining empirically the possibility of affected buildings to generate debris leading to road obstruction. Multiple performance indicators such as travel time and distance under various conditions are combined, in order to quantify the risks inflicted by dysfunctionalities in the emergency intervention process. The framework considers at the same time temporal and spatial dimensions, being able to cope with traffic dynamics or reconfigurable network configurations. The ArcGIS Network Analyst Module is used for model integration, and full city scale analysis is performed in order to test the capabilities. Bucharest (capital of Romania) is selected for the case study; this 2 million inhabitant city is one of the most endangered in Europe, due to earthquakes that occur in the Vrancea Area, at intermediate depth, with moment magnitudes > 7, but also due to the vulnerable building stock. Beside this, it is one of Europe’s top cities when it comes to traffic congestion. The results of the study provide initial insights on the deficiencies of the city’s road network and connectivity limitations, showing the high impact of road obstructions and traffic congestion on intervention times, for ambulances and firefighters, in case of an earthquake.     

Integration of stress testing with graph theory to assess the resilience of urban road networks under seismic hazards

Transportation networks daily provide accessibility and crucial services to societies. However, they must also maintain an acceptable level of service to critical infrastructures in the case of disruptions, especially during natural disasters. We have developed a method for assessing the resilience of transportation network topology when exposed to environmental hazards. This approach integrates graph theory with stress testing methodology and involves five basic steps: (1) establishment of a scenario set that covers a range of seismic damage potential in the network, (2) assessment of resilience using various graph-based metrics, (3) topology-based simulations, (4) evaluation of changes in graph-based metrics, and (5) examination of resilience in terms of spatial distribution of critical nodes and the entire network topology. Our case study was from the city of Kathmandu in Nepal, where the earthquake on April 25, 2015, followed by a major aftershock on May 12, 2015, led to numerous casualties and caused significant damage. Therefore, it is a good example for demonstrating and validating the developed methodology. The results presented here indicate that the proposed approach is quite efficient and accurate in assisting stakeholders when evaluating the resilience of transportation networks based on their topology.     

An innovative micro-scale approach for vulnerability and flood risk assessment with the application to property-level protection adoptions

Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options.     

Remote sensing-based assessment of vegetation damage by a strong typhoon (Meranti) in Xiamen Island,China

Remote sensing is a cost-effective tool for assessing vegetation damage by typhoon events at various scales. Taking Xiamen Island, southeastern China, as a study case, this paper aimed to assess and analyze the vegetation damage caused by Typhoon Meranti landfalling on September 15, 2016, using two high spatial resolution remote sensing images before and after the typhoon event. Seven severely damaged vegetation regions were selected based on the classification of vegetation types and visual interpretation of the images. Regression analysis was used to correct seasonal variation of the two high-solution images before and after typhoon. The vegetation area of the whole of Xiamen Island and the selected seven regions before and after typhoon were then calculated, respectively. Two spectral vegetation indicators, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and fractional vegetation coverage (FVC), were also retrieved for the whole island and the seven regions. By comparing the difference in NDVI values before and after the typhoon of the two high spatial resolution images, we analyzed the most affected vegetation areas, as well as the most seriously damaged vegetation species. The typhoon has caused a decrease in vegetation area by 95.1 ha across the whole Xiamen Island. The mean NDVI and FVC decreased by 0.209 and 13 percentage points, respectively. While, in the seven selected severely damaged areas, the mean NDVI decreased by 0.356–0.444 and FVC decreased by 27–42 percentage points. The visual inspection showed that the tone of typhoon-damaged vegetation became darker, the patches of damaged vegetation became smaller and more fragmented, and the gap between vegetation canopies became larger. The most affected vegetation areas occurred in the southeastern hilly area, Jinshang and Hubin South Roads, as well as the Wuyuan Bay area. The most seriously damaged vegetation type is broad-leaved trees, especially the species, Acacia confusa, Delonix regia, Bauhinia variegata, Chorisia speciosa, Ficus benjamina and F. Concinna.     

Quantile regression C-vine copula model for spatial extremes

A spatial quantile regression model is proposed to estimate the quantile curve for a given probability of non-exceedance, as function of locations and covariates. Canonical vines copulas are considered to represent the spatial dependence structure. The marginal at each location is an asymmetric Laplace distribution where the parameters are functions of the covariates. The full conditional quantile distribution is given using the Joe–Clayton copula. Simulations show the flexibility of the proposed model to estimate the quantiles with special dependence structures. A case study illustrates its applicability to estimate quantiles for spatial temperature anomalies.     

Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma

Large-scale damage to the power infrastructure from hurricanes and high-wind events can have devastating ripple effects on infrastructure, the broader economy, households, communities, and regions. Using Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida as a case study, we examined: (1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates between urban and rural counties; (2) the duration of electric power outages in counties exposed to tropical storm force winds versus hurricane Category 1 force winds; and (3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic vulnerability. We used power outage data for the period September 9, 2017–September 29, 2017. At the peak of the power outages following Hurricane Irma, over 36% of all accounts in Florida were without electricity. We found that the rural counties, predominantly served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities, experienced longer power outages and much slower and uneven restoration times. Results of three spatial lag models show that large percentages of customers served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities were a strong predictor of the duration of extended power outages. There was also a strong positive association across all three models between power outage duration and urban/rural county designation. Finally, there is positive spatial dependence between power outages and several social vulnerability indicators. Three socioeconomic variables found to be statistically significant highlight three different aspects of vulnerability to power outages: minority groups, population with sensory, physical and mental disability, and economic vulnerability expressed as unemployment rate. The findings from our study have broader planning and policy relevance beyond our case study area, and highlight the need for additional research to deepen our understanding of how power restoration after hurricanes contributes to and is impacted by the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of communities.     

Uncertain human consequences in asteroid risk analysis and the global catastrophe threshold

This paper studies the risk of collision between asteroids and Earth. It focuses on uncertainty in the human consequences of asteroid collisions, with emphasis on the possibility of global catastrophe to human civilization. A detailed survey of the asteroid risk literature shows that while human consequences are recognized as a major point of uncertainty, the studies focus mainly on physical and environmental dimensions of the risk. Some potential human consequences are omitted entirely, such as the possibility of asteroid explosions inadvertently causing nuclear war. Other human consequences are modeled with varying degrees of detail. Direct medical effects are relatively well-characterized, while human consequences of global environmental effects are more uncertain. The latter are evaluated mainly in terms of a global catastrophe threshold, but such a threshold is deeply uncertain and may not even exist. To handle threshold uncertainty in asteroid policy, this paper adapts the concept of policy boundaries from literature on anthropogenic global environmental change (i.e., planetary boundaries). The paper proposes policy boundaries of 100 m asteroid diameter for global environmental effects and 1 m for inadvertent nuclear war. Other policy implications include a more aggressive asteroid risk mitigation policy and measures to avoid inadvertent nuclear war. The paper argues that for rare events like large asteroid collisions, the absence of robust data means that a wide range of possible human consequences should be considered. This implies humility for risk analysis and erring on the side of caution in policy.     

Re–Os geochronology of the Cambrian stage-2 and -3 boundary in Zhijin County,Guizhou Province,China

The black shale series that formed in the Ediacaran–Cambrian transition are important stratigraphic records of the co-evolution of the paleo-ocean, -climate, and -biology. In this study, we measured Re–Os isotopic compositions of the black shale in the Niutitang Formation from the Gezhongwu section in Zhijin, Guizhou Province. The samples had high Re and Os contents, with Re ranging from 21.27 to 312.78 ng/g and Os ranging from 0.455 to 7.789 ng/g. The Re–Os isotope isochron age of 522.9 ± 8.6 Ma implies deposition of the Niutitang black shale predated the Chengjiang Fauna, providing an age constraint for the expansion of oceanic anoxia in the study area. The initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratio of 0.826 ± 0.026 indicates that enhanced continental weathering might have triggered the expansion of the oceanic anoxia.     

Oil geochemistry derived from the Qinjiatun–Qikeshu oilfields: insight from light hydrocarbons

A suite of 27 oils from the Qinjiatun–Qikeshu oilfields in the Lishu Fault Depression of the Songliao Basin was analyzed using whole oil gas chromatography. In combination with the relative distribution of C₂₇, C₂₈, and C₂₉ regular steranes, detailed geochemical analyses of light hydrocarbons in oil samples revealed crude oils characterized by the dual input of lower aquatic organisms and higher terrestrial plants. Several light hydrocarbon indicators suggest that the liquid hydrocarbons have maturities equivalent to vitrinite reflectances of around 0.78%–0.93%. This is consistent with the maturity determination of steranes C₂₉ 20S/(20S + 20R) and C₂₉ ααβ/(ααα + αββ). Crude oils derived from the two distinct oilfields likely both have source rocks deposited in a lacustrine environment based on light hydrocarbon parameters and on higher molecular weight hydrocarbon parameters. The results show that light hydrocarbon data in crude oils can provide important information for understanding the geochemical characteristics of the Qinjiatun–Qikeshu oils during geologic evolution.