A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes'''' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece

INTRODUCTIONTheexaminedareaislocatedintheGulfofCorinthandhasbeenrecognizedasoneofthemostactiveriftsinthewholeAegeanSea .Itsquaternarynormalfaulting (Sebriere ,1 977)anditshighseismicity (PapazachosandPapazachou ,1 997;AmbraseysandJackson ,1 990 )makeitaphysicallaboratorywithintheMediterraneanarea ,wherethephysicalprocessrelatedtotheseismiccyclecouldbestudied .ThecityofAeghionexperiencedastrong (MW =6 4 )earthquakeinJune 1 995,whichcausedseveredamage (Tselentis ,etal.,1 996 ) .Twent…     

蒙古南戈壁中洛霍考夫阶(泥盆系)牙形刺的首次发现

蒙古南戈壁新金斯特(Shine Jinst)地区Ulaan-Shand 剖面的查干安普拉格(Tsagaanbulag)组以前曾划归志留系(文洛克统至普里多利统). 但在Tsagaanbulag组及其上部的阿曼采尔(Amansair)组发现了非常重要的牙形刺, 包括Lanea omoalpha, Amydrotaxis johnsoni, “Ozarkodina” planililingua, Pedavis sp., 清楚地指明这两个组应当归下泥盆统中洛霍考夫阶. 中洛霍考夫阶的海相地层在中国和蒙古国广泛分布. 志留系文洛克统和洛德罗统下部的海相地层在蒙古是否存在是值得注意的问题.     

Rainfall erosivity and erosivity density in Eastern Ghats Highland of east India

The rainfall erosivity (R-factor in USLE) is the long-term average of the sum of the product of rainfall kinetic energy and its maximum 30-min intensity. Therefore, at most 30-min time intervals pluviograph records are required to calculate R-factor. But, such high-resolution data are scarce in many parts of the world and require lengthy processing period. In this study, R-factor was correlated with daily, monthly and annual rainfall, and its spatial variability in Eastern Ghats Highland of east India was mapped. The result showed that power regression models predicted satisfactorily the daily, monthly and annual R-factor, of which annual R-factor model performed best (model efficiency 0.93). Mean monsoon season R-factor was 15.6 and 10.0 times higher than the pre- and post-monsoon season R-factor, and thus remained highly critical with respect to erosion. Annual R-factor values ranged from 3040 to 10,127 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1 year^?1, with standard deviation of 1981 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1 year^?1. Rainfall intensity was positively correlated with erosivity density, and numerical value of rainfall intensity was almost double of the erosivity density value. The combination of rainfall and erosivity density was used to identify flood, erosion and landslide-prone areas. The developed iso-erosivity, erosivity density and risk maps can be opted as a tool for policy makers to take suitable measures against natural hazards in Eastern Ghats Highland of east India and elsewhere with similar rainfall characteristics.

     

Detecting global atmospheric oscillations by seismic instruments

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - We briefly overview the periodic atmospheric motions in the period range from 1 h to a few dozen days. It is shown that many oscillations recorded by...     

Radiation Exchange Between Stratus Clouds and Polar Marine Surfaces

The radiative energy exchange between arctic sea-ice and stratiform clouds is studied by means of aircraft measurements and a two-stream radiation transfer model. The data have been obtained by flights of two identically instrumented aircraft during the Radiation and Eddy Flux Experiments REFLEX I in autumn 1991 and REFLEX II in winter 1993 over the arctic marginal ice zone of Fram Strait. The instrumental equipment comprised Eppley pyranometers and pyrgeometers, which measure the solar and terrestrial upwelling and downwelling hemispheric radiation flux densities, and a line-scan-camera on one aircraft to monitor the surface structure of the sea-ice. An empirical parametrization of the albedo of partly ice-covered ocean surfaces is obtained from the data, which describes the albedo increasing linearly with the concentration of the snow-covered sea-ice and with the cosine of the sun zenith angle at sun elevations below 10°. Cloud optical parameters, such as single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor and shortwave and longwave height-dependent extinction coefficient are determined by adjusting modeled radiation flux densities to observations. We found significant influence of the multiple reflection of shortwave radiation between the ice surface and the cloud base on the radiation regime. Consistent with the data, a radiation transfer model shows that stratus clouds of 400 m thickness with common cloud parameters may double the global radiation at the surface of sea-ice compared to open water values. The total cloud-surface-albedo under these circumstances is 30% larger over sea-ice than over water. Parametrizations of the global and reflected radiation above and below stratus clouds are proposed on the basis of the measurements and modeling. The upwelling and downwelling longwave emission of stratus clouds with thicknesses of more than 500 m can be satisfactorily estimated by Stefan's law with an emissivity of nearly 1 and when the maximum air temperature within the cloud is used.     

PV morphology of a frontal-wave development

Summary A case study is performed of a frontal-wave development on a trailing cold front in the Atlantic. The data base comprises principally the analysis and forecast fields of the global operational weather prediction model of the ECMWF, and the development itself is viewed from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. It is shown that the ambient atmosphere contained three distinct and salient PV features: at the surface a frontal baroclinic zone; in the lower troposphere a co-aligned, moisture laden elongated band (2000 km long and 400 km wide) of enhanced PV; and at upper-levels a richly structured, southward extending PV pool. In the developments first phase a large-scale undulation of the surface frontal zone was accompanied by an in-phase movement of the upper-level anomaly. In a second phase two low-level wave features developed around 1000 km apart, and the resulting wave depressions were accompanied by a distortion of the baroclinic zone and the break-up of the low-level PV-band. In the subsequent mature phase the dominant secondary cyclone attained 500 km scale in the horizontal and acquired a coherent PV structure in the vertical.A PV-based diagnostic analysis provides evidence of both the self development of the PV features and their synergetic interplay. It also forms the basis for a comparison of the event with traditional and recent hypotheses for frontal-wave development.On the basis of the diagnosed relationship between the customarily depicted surface frontal-wave cups and the low-level PV-band, it is suggested that the segmentation of the latter provides a useful tool for monitoring and forecasting secondary developments. Also in the context of numerical weather prediction brief consideration is given to the sensivity of the frontal-wave development and structure to the spatial resolution of the associated forecast model and the specification of the initial fields.With 12 Figures     

Cyclic fluctuations of anoxia during Cretaceous time in the South Atlantic Ocean

The holes of the DSDP-IPOD program in the South Atlantic Ocean document two major anoxic events during Oxfordian to middle Albian times and secondly from late Cenomanian to Santonian times. The black shales formed during these two anoxic events differ in their rhythmicity and origin.During Lower Cretaceous time, the anoxic conditions resulted from the confined, euxinic nature of the basins. The rhythmicity of these black shales probably does not result from a global phenomenon (climatic or tectono-eustatic), but from local conditions resulting from the slender dimensions of the young ocean basin(s). The diversity and the diachroneity of the deposits from the south to the north precisely reflect the dynamics of the oceanic spreading.During Upper Cretaceous time, the anoxic conditions fluctuated in relation to a mid-water oxygen-minimum zone. The rhythmicity of black shale deposition seems to result from a global phenomenon, because of the widespread occurrence of the event. In the South Atlantic ocean, the cyclic fluctuations of anoxia were due to cyclic variations in the depth of the mid-water oxygen-minimum zone. There is no simple process to explain such rhythmicity. It probably results from the interplay of the three main variables which characterize the oceans at the time of the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary: the increased rate of sea floor spreading, high sea-levels and low water-circulation.     

Parametrization of turbulent fluxes over inhomogeneous landscapes

Reasons for the nonclosure of the heat balance in the atmospheric boundary layers over natural land surfaces are analyzed. Results of measuring the heat-balance components over different land surfaces are used. The Cabauw (Netherlands) data (obtained throughout 1996 over a grass surface with intermittent shrubs and single trees) and the data from the Anchor station in Germany (measured over coniferous forest in 2000–2001) are analyzed. In all, the analysis involves about fifty thousand independent values of the heat-balance components measured in the experiments, which should be indicative of the reliability of the results obtained in the paper. The data have shown that the heat balance is not closed and the imbalance is 50–250 W/m². The sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes λE + H = STF is found to be systematically smaller than the difference between the net radiation and the heat flux into the ground R _n ? G. It is shown that the main cause of a systematic heat imbalance in the atmospheric boundary layers over inhomogeneous land surfaces is that the methods of surface-flux measurement and estimation are based on the theory that requires the hypothesis of stationarity and horizontal homogeneity. Direct data analysis has shown that the heat imbalance increases with landscape inhomogeneity. In the paper, a parametrization of the heat imbalance is carried out and the coefficient k _f (z ₀ ^ef /L ^ef ) is introduced as a measure of inhomogeneity. For this, data from the experiments FIFE, KUREX, TARTEX, SADE, etc., are also used. Empirical formulas are presented to refine the results of direct measurements and calculations of surface fluxes over natural (inhomogeneous) land surfaces from profile and standard (using bulk parametrizations) data. These formulas can also be used to determine surface fluxes over inhomogeneous underlying land surfaces in order to take into account so-called subgrid-scale effects in constructing prediction models.