Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global distribution of electron temperature and density fluctuations measured by AEROS-B

Abstract

Between July 1974 and September 1975 aboard AEROS-B the electron temperature and the electron density have been measured by the Retarding Potential Analyses and the Impedance Probe respectively in the altitude range 200–870 km. Temperature and density fluctuations along satellite paths have been analysed by digital filtering. The large amount of data allows the mean fluctuations at different heights and latitude intervals to be evaluated. The resulting two-dimensional arrays are presented for some time periods. The global distributions show different patterns in the polar and equatorial regions, and seasonal variations. Mean temperature fluctuations and fluctuations of electron density in general occur simultaneously though with different amplitudes. At high latitudes a seasonal dependence in the strength of the fluctuations of both quantities was observed.     

Structures in the phase space of a four dimensional symplectic map

We numerically investigate the projections of non periodic orbits in a 4-dimensional (4-D) symplectic map composed of two coupled 2-dimensional (2-D) maps. We describe in detail the structures that are produced in different planes of projection and we find how the morphology of the 4-D orbits is influenced by the features of the 2-D maps as the coupling parameter increases. We give an empirical law that describes this influence.     

The low-frequency radio spectrum of the continuum emission from the undisturbed sun

The low-frequency radio spectrum of the continuum emission from the undisturbed Sun is determined for 24 days during the period 1985 May-September. It is found that the spectral index varied from + 1.6 to +3.6 during this period. It is suggested that the large positive spectral indices are due to the existence of temperature gradients in the outer corona.     

Grim4-C1, -C2p: combination solutions of the global earth gravity field

On the basis of the GRIM4-S1 satellite-only Earth gravity model, being accomplished in a common effort by DGFI and GRGS, a combination solution, called GRIM4-C1, has been derivcd using 1° × 1° mean gravity anomalies and 1° × 1° Seasat altimeter derived mean geoid undulations. In the meantime improvements could be achieved by incorporating more tracking data (GEOSAT, SPOT2-DORIS) into the solution, resulting in the two new parallel versions, the satellite-only gravity model GRIM4-S2 and the combined solution GRIM4-C2p (preliminary). All GRIM4 Earth gravity models cover the spectral gravitational constituents complete up to degree and order 50.In this report the emphasis is on the discussion of the combined gravity models: combination and estimation techniques, capabilities for application in precise satellite orbit computation and accuracies in long wavelength geoid representation. It is shown that with the new generation of global gravity models general purpose satellite-only models are no longer inferior to combination solutions if applied to satellite orbit restitution.     

Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: the SEMAPHORE experiment

The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale) experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period). Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies), and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m⁻². This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The classical momentum flux bulk parameterization was found to fail in low wind and unstable conditions. Finally, the sea surface was investigated using airborne and satellite radars and wave buoys. A wave model, operationally used, was found to get better results compared with radar and wave-buoy measurements, when initialized using an improved wind field, obtained by assimilating satellite and buoy wind data in a meteorological model. A detailed analysis of a 2-day period showed that the swell component, propagating from a far source area, is underestimated in the wave model. A data base has been created, containing all experimental measurements. It will allow us to pursue the interpretation of observations and to test model simulations in the ocean, at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer, and to investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling at the local and mesoscales.     

Second National Workshop on Solar Physics,Indian Institute of Astrophysics,Kodaikanal, India

This paper presents a brief report about the topics discussed at the second Indian National Workshop on Solar Physics held in September 1987.     

The propagation of density waves in a Galaxy

We examine the behaviour of the solutions of the Lin-Shu dispersion relation in terms of the stability parameterQ and we find that a modification of the critical values of the dispersion speeds does not change drastically this behaviour. On the contrary the solutions of the Lynden Bell-Kalnajs dispersion relation behave in a more complicated way. The use of this dispersion relation imposes a different definition of the critical values of the dispersion speeds which are in general larger than the corresponding values of the Lin-Shu case.