Probabilities of occurrence of large earthquakes in the Aegean and surrounding area during the period 1986–2006

Repeat times of large shocks are obtained for 17 seismic fracture zones of the Aegean and surrounding area, from times of historic and present century earthquakes. The mean standard deviation of the repeat times is approximately 50% of any one observation.A probabilistic approach is then used to forecast the likelihood of large future earthquakes in each fracture zone, using as input the time of the last large shock, the average repeat time and its standard deviation. Shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes are examined separately. The calculated probabilities are high for the entire Hellenic arc, both for shallow and intermediate depth seismicity, for the area of Leucas island (Ionian), of Lesbos island (Aegean), for Patraikos-west Corinthiakos Gulfs, for Evoikos Gulf as well as for southern Bulgaria.The probability estimates based on the most recent large earthquakes, involve a number of basic physical assumptions and we would think that they provide a semi-stochastic approach to the problem of earthquake prediction in Greece.     

Model-based estimates of water loss from “patches” of the understory mosaic of the Hartheim Scots pine plantation

Summary During the Hartheim Experiment (HartX) 1992 conducted in the Upper Rhine Valley, Germany, we estimated water vapor flux from the understory and the forest floor by several methods. At the vegetation patch level, direct estimates were made with small weighing lysimeters, and water loss was scaled-up to the stand level based on vegetation patchtype distribution. At the leaf level, transpiration flux was determined with a CO₂/H₂O porometer for the dominant understory plant species,Brachypodium pinnatum, Carex alba, andCarex flacca. Measured leaf transpiration was scaled-up to patch level with a canopy light interception and leaf gas exchange model, and then to stand level as in the case of lysimeter data, but with further consideration of patchtype leaf area index (LAI). On two days, total understory latent heat flux was estimated by eddy correlation methods below the tree canopy.The understory vegetation was subdivided into five major patch-types which covered 62% of the ground area and resulted in a cumulative LAI of approx. 1.54 when averaged over total stand ground area and compared to the average tree canopy LAI of 2.8. The remaining 38% of ground area was unvegetated bare soil and/or covered by moss (mainly byScleropodium purum) or litter. The evapotranspiration from the understory and unvegetated areas equaled approx. 20% of total forest stand transpiration during the HartX period. The understory vegetation transpired about 0.4 mm d^–1 (13%) estimated over the period of May 13 to 21, whereas evaporation from moss and soil patches amounted 0.23 mm d^–1 (7.0%). On dry, sunny days, total water vapor flux below the tree canopy exceeded 0.66 mm d^–1. Using the transpiration rates derived from the GAS-FLUX model together with estimates of evaporation from moss and soil areas and a modified application of the Penman-Monteith equation, the average daily maximum conductance of the understory and the forest floor was 1.7 mm s^–1 as compared to 5.5 mm s^–1 for the tree canopy.With 6 Figures     

Directional dependence of site effects observed near a basin edge at Aegion,Greece

We study site effects using 520 weak motion earthquake records from a vertical array in Aegion, Greece. The array is inside a basin, has four stations in soil, and one in bedrock (178 m depth). The site is marked by high seismicity and complex surface geology. We first use the records to establish the downhole accelerometer orientations and their evolution with time. Then we estimate site effects using empirical spectral ratios with and without a reference site (standard and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio). We find significant site amplification which cannot be accounted for by 1D model predictions, along with a significant difference in the amplification level between the two horizontal components. These are indications of 2D effects, namely surface waves generated at the basin edge. The difference in amplification between the horizontal components is maximised when these are rotated with respect to the orientation of the basin edge. The strongest amplification takes place in the direction parallel to the basin edge (SH, or out-of-plane motion), and is up to 2 times higher than in the perpendicular direction (SV, or in-plane motion). This directional effect on the amplification is corroborated by numerical 2D modelling using incident SH and SV waves, with the former possibly generating strong Love waves. In the records, the directionality is clear for windows containing the largest amplitudes of the records (S waves and strong surface waves), while it tends to vanish for coda-wave windows. This directionality is also observed when using response spectral ratios rather than Fourier ratios. We compute soil-to-rock amplification factors for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and find it is significantly higher than what is predicted by current design codes. We attribute this difference to the basin edge amplification, linear soil behaviour, and to the inability of simple scalar values like PGA to describe complex amplification effects. Finally, we analyse the earthquake records at a surface station near the slope crest and do not observe significant topographic amplification.     

Computable extensions of generalized fractional kinetic equations in astrophysics

Fractional calculus and special functions have contributed a lot to mathematical physics and its various branches.The great use of mathematical physics in distinguished astrophysical problems has attracted astronomers and physicists to pay more attention to available mathematical tools that can be widely used in solving several problems of astrophysics/physics.In view of the great importance and usefulness of kinetic equations in certain astrophysical problems,the authors derive a generalized fractional kin...     

Enhancement techniques for landuse analysis

In image interpretation, to make maximum use of the available information, some sort of enhancement is usually needed. In image enhancement, the aim is to manipulate the image to improve its quality. Image enhancement techniques emphasize upon the viewing of the image for extraction of information that may not have been so readily apparent in the original. Hera the software package for various enhancement techniques that has been developed at National bemote Sensing Agency (NRSA) is described. In order to illustrate the utility of the techniques, the enhanced imagery have been analysed for land use categories and linear features, and the corresponding thematic maps have also been shown in the results.     

A novel method for enhancement of radiometric resolution using image fusion

The Resourcesat-I satellite is equipped with different types of sensors with varied characteristics. For the effective utilization of the available multi-sensor, multi-temporal, multi-spectral and multi-radiometric data from these sensors, fusion of digital image data has become a valuable technique. Image fusion enhances the information content and helps in better discrimination of various land cover types. The Resourcesat-1 has equipped with three sensors, AWiFS, LISS-III and LISS-IV, which are having identical spectral resolutions, with different spatial, radiometric and temporal resolutions. The spatial resolutions ratio of the data set for merging are required to be maximum of 1:6, where as the data sets (AWiFS and LISS-III) that are used in the current study are having the ratio of 1:2.5 approximately. A novel merging technique is designed, which retains the multi-spectral response of the input data in the output data. The merged data set provides the higher spatial and radiometric resolutions. In order to evaluate the fusion merits quantitatively, all the data sets are digitally classified and studied the output classes for homogeneity and clear discrimination. A comprehensive comparative study is carried out between the fused image and the LISS-III image based on the contingency matrix and the scatter plots, which demonstrates the strength of fused image for discriminating the object classes at 23.5 m spatial and 10-bit radiometric resolutions. The merged data set gives the improved classification accuracy.     

Étude géochronologique du gisement polymétallique de Kowary (Pologne)

Résumé Le gisement polymétallique de Kowary (Pologne) est formé de deux types de minéralisations: 1. des lentilles de magnétites formées pendant l'orogenèse calédonienne, 2. des minéralisations polymétalliques plus jeunes avec uranium. L'étude géochronologique des pechblendes par la méthode Uranium — Plomb montre que le gisement uranifère a été formé à l'époque permienne de l'orogenèse hercynienne, il y a environ 265 M. A., qu'il a été remanié au cours de l'époque laramienne, il y a 70 M. A. L'âge de formation du gisement de Kowary correspond très exactement à l'âge des gisements français (Limousin et Vendée).

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The poly-metallic deposit of Kowary (Poland) is formed by two types of mineralizations: 1. lenses of magnetite formed during the Caledonian orogeny, 2. more recent polymetallic mineralizations with Uranium. The geochronological study of the pitchblende by Uranium — Lead method shows that the Uranium deposit was formed at the Permian epoch of the Hercynian orogeny about 265 M. Y. ago and it has been modified during the Laramide epoch, about 70 M. Y. ago. The formation age of the Kowary deposits corresponds exactly to that of the French deposits (Limousin and Vendée).

     

The Neftegorsk, Sakhalin Island, earthquake of 27 May 1995

Abstract Past seismic catastrophes were unknown in Sakhalin Island before 1995 except those suggested from findings of paleoseismodislocations. The first time that dwellers have experienced such a catastrophe in the Sakhalin Island history was on 27 May 1995. The devastating Neftegorsk earthquake occurred in Northern Sakhalin (?= 52.8° north; δ= 143.2° east; H = 18 km; M_s= 7.2), killed almost 2000 people in the small city of Neftegorsk, caused damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, railways and roads, breakage of oil and gas pipelines, electric and communication lines, and was accompanied by large-scale surface phenomena within a source area. It was felt all over the Sakhalin Island, as well as over the closest part of the Eurasian continent. Surface fracturing was the most impressive effect of the Neftegorsk earthquake. The 37-km long, right-lateral strike-slip fault, with a strike of north 15° east and a horizontal displacement up to a maximum of 8 m, has been observed from Taxon Mountain at the south to the junction of the Cadylanye and Keniga Rivers at the north. According to the results of a detailed geological survey and study of the aftershocks, the total extent of the source area was - 80 km. Various secondary phenomena have been observed at the Earth's surface, such as landslides, falls, soil liquefaction, mud volcanoes etc. The earthquake was followed by hundreds of aftershocks within the following 1-2 months. Spatially, the earthquake fault coincides with the pre-existing Upper Piltun fault, known earlier from geological studies. Recent high activity of the latter fault has been recognized only after the Neftegorsk event because of findings of traces of significant past dislocations within the fault zone. From a tectonic viewpoint it can be suggested that the Upper Piltun fault is a Riedel-type shear fracture located between two main regional faults: the Gyrgylanye-Dagy fault at the west and the Piltun-Ekhaby fault at the east. Therefore, its present activity, expressed by the destructive Neftegorsk earthquake, seems to be explained by a long strain accumulation within a broad zone of regional right-lateral shear faulting.