Orbital dynamics of three-dimensional bars – II. Investigation of the parameter space

We investigate the orbital structure in a class of three-dimensional (3D) models of barred galaxies. We consider different values of the pattern speed, of the strength of the bar and of the parameters of the central bulge of the galactic model. The morphology of the stable orbits in the bar region is associated with the degree of folding of the x1 characteristic. This folding is larger for lower values of the pattern speed. The elongation of rectangular-like orbits belonging to x1 and to x1-originated families depends mainly on the pattern speed. A detailed investigation of the trees of bifurcating families in the various models shows that major building blocks of 3D bars can be supplied by families initially introduced as unstable in the system, but becoming stable at another energy interval. In some models without radial and vertical 2:1 resonances we find, except for the x1 and x1-originated families, also families related to the z -axis orbits, which support the bar. Bifurcations of the x2 family can build a secondary 3D bar along the minor axis of the main bar. This is favoured in the slowly rotating bar case.     

Methods of groundwater recharge estimation in eastern Mediterranean—a water balance model application in Greece,Cyprus and Jordan

Groundwater recharge studies in semi‐arid areas are fundamental because groundwater is often the only water resource of importance. This paper describes the water balance method of groundwater recharge estimation in three different hydro‐climatic environments in eastern Mediterranean, in northwest Greece (Aliakmonas basin/Koromilia basin), in Cyprus (Kouris basin and Larnaka area) and in Jordan (northern part of Jordan). For the Aliakmonas basin, groundwater recharge was calculated for different sub‐catchments. For the Upper Aliakmonas basin (Koromilia basin), a watershed‐distributed model was developed and recharge maps were generated on a daily basis. The mean annual recharge varied between 50 and 75 mm/year (mean annual rainfall 800 mm/year). In Cyprus, the mean groundwater recharge estimates yielded 70 mm/year in the Kouris basin. In the Larnaka area, groundwater recharge ranged from 30 mm/year (lowland) to 200 mm/year (mountains). In Jordan, the results indicated recharge rates ranging from 80 mm/year for very permeable karstified surfaces in the upper part of the Salt basin, where rainfall reaches 500 mm/year to less than 10 mm/year and to only about 1 mm/year in the southernmost part of the basin. For the north part of Jordan, a watershed‐distributed model was developed and recharge maps were generated. This water balance model was used for groundwater recharge estimations in many regions with different climatic conditions and has provided reliable results. It has turned out to be an important tool for the management of the limited natural water resources, which require a detailed understanding of regional hydro(geo)logical processes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey

Useful information concerning the earthquake hazard parameters distributed in Turkey and the adjacent areas are estimated in the present work. Based on Gumbel’s I distribution parameters we are able to estimate the hazard values of the investigated area which are the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence of magnitude ≥M during a time span of t-years. Figures concerning the spatial distribution of probabilities and the return periods are plotted and we considered them of particular interest for mapping the earthquake hazard in Turkey and the surrounding areas. These figures effectively produce a brief earthquake hazard atlas. The quantitative appraisal of the hazard parameters is useful for engineers, planners, etc., because it provides a tool for earthquake resistant design.     

A forward test of the Decelerating–Accelerating Seismic Strain model to western south and central America

Global observations show that strong mainshocks are preceded by decelerating preshocks which occur in the focal (seismogenic) region of the ensuing mainshock and by accelerating preshocks which occur in a broader (critical) region of the mainshock. Predictive properties of these preshocks have been expressed by empirical relations supported by theory and form the Decelerating–Accelerating Seismic Strain (D–AS) model. A respective algorithm has been developed which is used to identify the critical and seismogenic region and estimate (predict) the corresponding ensuing mainshock. In the present work a forward test of this model is performed by attempting intermediate-term prediction of future big (M ≥ 7.7) mainshocks along the western coast of south and central America. Three regions of decelerating shocks and three corresponding regions of accelerating shocks have been identified. The parameters (origin time, magnitude, epicenter coordinates) as well as their uncertainties have been estimated (predicted) for the corresponding probably ensuing three mainshocks. This forward test allows an objective evaluation of the model's ability for an intermediate-term prediction of strong shallow mainshocks.     

New model estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century

New estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are obtained based on calculations with the current generation of global climate models under moderate anthropogenic impacts in the 21st century. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, it was analyzed whether or not the present climate models can simulate both the average conditions of sea ice and their interannual variation and tendencies to change in the Arctic basin, in particular on the NSR, as compared to the satellite data for recent decades.     

Seasonal variation of space–time parameters of internal gravity waves at Kharkiv (49°30′N, 36°51′E)

Internal gravity waves (IGWs) over Kharkiv (49°30′N, 36°51′E) have been studied by using an automatic goniometer of a meteor radar (AG MR), with its antenna directed to the East. The AG MR carries out Doppler measurements of the radial drift velocity and the position of the reflecting area of meteor trails. In order to obtain information about IGW parameters, an algorithm was used that processes the AG MR wind data by dividing the measured volume into several sub-volumes, and by carrying out wavelet analysis of wind variations in these areas. Results of 1 year (1987) of AG MR data show a good qualitative correspondence with literature results. There is an increase of IGW activity during the change of the zonal background wind in spring and autumn. It was found that the mean IGW horizontal phase velocity and predominating horizontal propagation direction change with season. However, the mean period (1.5 h), the dominant amplitude (30 m/s) and the vertical phase velocity do not strongly vary in the course of the year. The mean vertical and horizontal wavelengths were found to be 40 and 250 km, respectively.     

Impact of atmospheric and physical forcings on biogeochemical cycling of dissolved oxygen and nutrients in the coastal Bay of Bengal

Time-series observations were conducted off Visakhapatnam, central west coast of Bay of Bengal, from October 2007 to April 2009 to examine the influence of physical and atmospheric processes on water column nutrients biogeochemistry. The thermal structure displayed inversions of 0.5 to 1.0° C during winter and were weaker in summer. The water column was vertically stratified during the entire study period and was stronger during October–November 2007 and August–December 2008 compared to other study periods. High concentrations of chlorophyll-a and nutrients were associated with the extreme atmospheric events. The strong relationship of nutrients with salinity indicates that physical processes, such as circulation, mixing and river discharge, have a significant control on phytoplankton blooms in the coastal Bay of Bengal. Phosphate seems to be a controlling nutrient during winter whereas availability of light and suspended matter limits production in summer. Formation of low oxygen conditions were observed in the bottom waters due to enhanced primary production by extreme atmospheric events; however, re-oxygenation of bottom waters through sinking of oxygen-rich surface waters by a warm core (anticyclonic) eddy led to its near recovery. This study reveals that atmospheric and physical processes have significant impacts on the water column biogeochemistry in the coastal Bay of Bengal.     

The key role of massive stars in Oort cloud comet dynamics

The effects of a sample of 1300 individual stellar encounters spanning a wide range of parameter values (mass, velocity and encounter distance) are investigated. Power law fits for the number of injected comets demonstrate the long range effect of massive stars, whereas light stars affect comets mainly along their tracks. Similarly, we show that the efficiency of a star to fill the phase space region of the Oort cloud where the Galactic tides are able to inject comets into the observable region - the so-called “tidally active zone” (TAZ) - is also strongly dependent on the stellar mass. Power laws similar to those for direct injection are obtained for the efficiency of stars to fill the TAZ. This filling of the tidally active zone is crucial for the long term flux of comets from the Oort cloud. Based on long-term Monte Carlo simulations using a constant Galactic tide and a constant flux of stellar encounters, but neglecting the detailed effects of planetary perturbations, we show that this flux essentially results from a two step mechanism: (i) the stellar injection of comets into the TAZ; and (ii) the tidal injection of TAZ comets into the loss cone. We find that single massive stars are able to induce “comet drizzles” - corresponding to an increase of the cometary flux of about 40% - which may last for more than 100 Myr by filling the TAZ to a higher degree than normal. It appears that the stars involved in this process are the same that cause comet showers.